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real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Old May 16th 2021, 8:23 am
  #481  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
It's an okay building but there are some quirks about it and the area. The trash dumpster is too small for the building, so can be tricky at times throwing trash out since pick up is only once per week, there is a mouse issue, there are always sketchy people hanging around, and it's pretty common to see people passed out in the alley from drugs, finding syringes and such, lots of sirens, but it is on a bus route with #14, #16, #20 and whatever they are calling the SFU express bus now, only takes about 10-12 minutes to get to downtown by car about 20 minutes by bus. At times the lobby gets broken into, and when Starbucks was open still (has since closed) some of the colorful characters would overdose, or otherwise cause issues in the bathroom, someone overdosed in that bathroom once as well, No Frills is across the street, its small store, and shoplifting there is a regular occurrence especially for meat, apparently a black market for meat on the DTES.

On and there is a chicken processing plant a block away, depending on the direction of the wind, the smell can get quite vile especially in the summer.

From 2017 to 2020 we lived there, the area continued to decline in quality, and seems to get worse by the year as DTES spread further out into Vancouver.
Some "quirks" indeed.

Will have a look at the links later.
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Old May 16th 2021, 3:01 pm
  #482  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

This is completely on point. All the data and levers bought in and weighted. It is what I try to explain to people but done much better because the analysis has been done properly. The myth of immigration pulled about with the hard numbers that people don't seem to want to research when they are investing so much money on the argument.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/ge...supply-squeeze

Last edited by JamesM; May 16th 2021 at 4:16 pm.
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Old May 17th 2021, 1:03 am
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by JamesM View Post
This is completely on point. All the data and levers bought in and weighted. It is what I try to explain to people but done much better because the analysis has been done properly. The myth of immigration pulled about with the hard numbers that people don't seem to want to research when they are investing so much money on the argument.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/ge...supply-squeeze
How on earth do you get through an article with so many pop up adverts for personal hygiene products? It's not a serious publication if it puts razors in one corner and sanitary pads in another.
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Old May 17th 2021, 1:16 am
  #484  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
How on earth do you get through an article with so many pop up adverts for personal hygiene products? It's not a serious publication if it puts razors in one corner and sanitary pads in another.
ad blockers?
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Old May 17th 2021, 1:59 am
  #485  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
ad blockers?
I guess, and it I was a regular user of, say, rawstory, I'd get one, but the need for it discredits the source.
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Old May 17th 2021, 2:45 am
  #486  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

According to an article in the Vancouver Sun, yesterday, Financial Post section, the cost of lumber has increased enormously because of the demanf for building houses, renos, new patios, etc both here and in the US.

Seemingly, experts are telling people wanting to buy a new house or build their own to add $30,000 to their previous estimated costs just because of that.

That doesn't bode well for a drop in price of houses or condos for at least the next 4 or 5 years.

Lumber mills cannot keep up with the demand.

https://epaper.vancouversun.com/vancouver-sun/textview

scroll along the bottom to D1 FP Vancouver
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Old May 17th 2021, 3:07 am
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
How on earth do you get through an article with so many pop up adverts for personal hygiene products? It's not a serious publication if it puts razors in one corner and sanitary pads in another.
I guess i"ve got used to the National Post. They don't paywall content so you suffer ads.
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Old May 17th 2021, 3:25 am
  #488  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
How on earth do you get through an article with so many pop up adverts for personal hygiene products? It's not a serious publication if it puts razors in one corner and sanitary pads in another.
Use a tablet or mobile device.

The author is a PhD in Economics from Princeton and the article hammers all the nails.

I didn’t get sanitary pads on my pc- that might be down to your browser history?
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Old May 17th 2021, 4:16 am
  #489  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
How on earth do you get through an article with so many pop up adverts for personal hygiene products? It's not a serious publication if it puts razors in one corner and sanitary pads in another.
Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
I guess, and it I was a regular user of, say, rawstory, I'd get one, but the need for it discredits the source.
I only got the odd news story pop up in the lower right hand corner... oh but wait, I use an adblocker!
Most of the news sites are showing adverts, even some of the 'broadsheet' ones, unless you subscribe; it's easy to use an adblocker and be done with the majority! (Hint - Opera browser has a built in adblocker and vpn) https://www.opera.com/
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Old May 18th 2021, 3:49 pm
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by JamesM View Post
This is completely on point. All the data and levers bought in and weighted. It is what I try to explain to people but done much better because the analysis has been done properly. The myth of immigration pulled about with the hard numbers that people don't seem to want to research when they are investing so much money on the argument.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/ge...supply-squeeze
It's a good article, although the suggestion that the 6 year growth should be 12% seems dubious. Bubbles are expectations fuelled, but where a soft landing can be engineered (or simply happens through circumstance) the bubble does not necessaily burst. Assuming interest rates are low, raise them and some serious bursting will be on the cards.
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Old May 18th 2021, 11:37 pm
  #491  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Quite enjoyed this Bloomberg headline today:

The Second-Largest Country in the World is Running Out of Land


Really glad the media is finally picking up on the absurdity of this situation.
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Old May 18th 2021, 11:46 pm
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
It's a good article, although the suggestion that the 6 year growth should be 12% seems dubious. Bubbles are expectations fuelled, but where a soft landing can be engineered (or simply happens through circumstance) the bubble does not necessaily burst. Assuming interest rates are low, raise them and some serious bursting will be on the cards.
Historically in the western world housing price growth averages out at around 7% per year if memory serves (through the 20th century). About a percentage point lower than stocks.

His numbers are based on economic theory which always relies on a number of assumptions.

What I liked was every man and his dog bases their argument that the real estate market will rise infinitely because of immigration. That's the flawed rationale now being applied. People will make the biggest investment decision of their lives on numbers they never look into or research. It's like a wives tale.

Whilst the 12% is dubious, the price growth we've seen is far more ludicrous.

In fairness though I don't know if we've ever seen so many bubbles in human history running at once. We currently have them in property, crypto currency and many stocks.

More people should be shouting from the hills about the impending crash.

The problem with interest rates is they can't go any lower so when the current wave of buying runs out what is their next trick??? I don't think Canada can cope with any sort of correction.

I feel like I'm a doom monger on here but I'm just amazed at the lack of concern from authorities on it in general. I guess Milton Friedman was right and in the long run we are all dead.

Last edited by JamesM; May 18th 2021 at 11:56 pm.
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Old May 19th 2021, 12:08 pm
  #493  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by JamesM View Post
Historically in the western world housing price growth averages out at around 7% per year if memory serves (through the 20th century). About a percentage point lower than stocks.

His numbers are based on economic theory which always relies on a number of assumptions.

What I liked was every man and his dog bases their argument that the real estate market will rise infinitely because of immigration. That's the flawed rationale now being applied. People will make the biggest investment decision of their lives on numbers they never look into or research. It's like a wives tale.

Whilst the 12% is dubious, the price growth we've seen is far more ludicrous.

In fairness though I don't know if we've ever seen so many bubbles in human history running at once. We currently have them in property, crypto currency and many stocks.

More people should be shouting from the hills about the impending crash.

The problem with interest rates is they can't go any lower so when the current wave of buying runs out what is their next trick??? I don't think Canada can cope with any sort of correction.

I feel like I'm a doom monger on here but I'm just amazed at the lack of concern from authorities on it in general. I guess Milton Friedman was right and in the long run we are all dead.
That was Keynes.

Not sure what the next trick can be ? Perhaps encourage developers to build some more houses ?!
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Old May 19th 2021, 1:31 pm
  #494  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
That was Keynes.

Not sure what the next trick can be ? Perhaps encourage developers to build some more houses ?!
Keynes, Friedman same difference innit???

Looks like the crypto bubble has burst overnight.

The building of more doesn't seem to hold true if you believe my trusted article data- which I do. They'll just be gobbled up by the speculators. Around me we have dozens of towers now going up and I just can't see where the ordinary people are who are happy or can afford to stump up $600k for 500 square feet. That being said yes lots of empty unsold units would draw attention and maybe shift mindset that there is no scarcity- but again you are relying on rational market behaviour which we are not seeing.

One theory I do loosely subscribe too is that they build the wrong sort of housing stock required in Toronto and there are too many condo's and not enough houses. The problem with that is the market run doesn't loosely subscribe to it.

Interest rates is the only sensible government mechanism. Media and consumer realization that the run won't carry on are the only other.

Last edited by JamesM; May 19th 2021 at 1:36 pm.
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Old May 19th 2021, 2:57 pm
  #495  
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Default Re: real estate prices in Canada sustainable?

Hamilton is having more and more 'tower blocks' built... https://urbanicity.com/hamilton/real...ower-projects/
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