scrubbedexpat091

Not sure of the source really, but interesting topic to think about as housing prices in a good chunk of Canada are expensive, and compared to the US grew at a much greater rate during the time frame the article uses.

Is this sustainable in the long term?

For us personally we have given up ever owning a house, its not realistic as prices are far too high and really nowhere I have ever found where a house would be realistic for us, in part due to highish rent preventing any way to really save so there is the down payment issue, and the stress test and other mortgages rules in Canada also pretty much prevent us from ever having a house.

I just wonder if this type of growth is sustainable over the long term, wages don't seem to be keeping up, so not sure how anyone actually buys a house in many areas these days.

Just something to ponder.

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-...home-prices/#_

Danny B

Last year didn't look too bad. Kamloops was at #23 and Salmon Arm (which is 110km away) is at #1

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/real...l-estate-2019/

scrubbedexpat091

Goodness Salmon Arm is still expensive. Lol

Realistically I dont think for us anything over 175k is feasible based on possible future income projections based on plan for school.

Siouxie

Kirkland Lake is still cheap .. https://www.realtor.ca/on/kirkland-lake/real-estate
You might be able to get help with the mortgage.... https://www.placetocallhome.ca/fthbi...uyer-incentive
Finding work there might be an issue though!

scrubbedexpat091

That is always the issue where the houses are affordable there tends to be low employment options. Lol

CanadaJimmy

Lots of reasons why it's this way
- Interest rates are very low, 1.89%/1.99% mortgages are available now, that makes the interest on a house actually close to or lower than inflation in real-money terms
- Shortage of land allowed to develop on, lots of protected land (e.g. ALR) and crown land.
- Slow approval process for new developments
- Lack of density in some areas
- Canada is desirable on a global scale - safe, univeral healthcare, easy access to US markets
- BC is desirable within Canada - Vancouver is one of the largest cities with growing tech sector, best climate in the country
- The internet has made people much more aware of what the best places in the world to live are.

I was part of a housing collapse group on facebook for about 6 months but despite all the doom and gloom, I just don't see a crash coming. We just bought our first detached house last month.

jeremy brewer

Hi
I have been here now ( vancouver) about 14yrs

if i had a dollar for everytime i heard someone say the housing market will crash, i would be very happy

usually something comes along to prevent it,

low interest rates (as now)

maybe in the near future people from Hong Kong may keep the market up

or shortage of sellers (as now)

but i suppose a crash is not totally impossible

cheers J

Siouxie

Unless house prices decrease and wages increase there will be many that can no longer afford to buy I suspect. In my city house prices have more than doubled in the last 4 years, due mainly to Toronto prices being at a point where they are no longer affordable for the majority of low to middle pay workers.. (nor Mississauga / Oakville) and so people are moving here where prices were reasonable and in doing so have pushed the prices up. Rental prices have also increased in a similar manner - This blue collar steel city is starting to become more gentrified!

scrubbedexpat091

Guess I should have phrased it is it sustainable longer term for those working in Canada and earning CAD$.

Not necessarily a market crash but only so many jobs to go around that pay enough to afford 500k plus homes.

OrangeMango

I am strongly thinking that the Canadian property market is in general the product of a mixture of immigration, and immigrants bringing money with themselves, having jobs, or creating jobs, if they start their own business, plus the economic growth the country has seen. Especially if immigrants, people who are obviously "new" to the market are introducing their own capital, and supply is low, then prices ultimately shoot up. The likes of skilled immigrants tend to have also a bit of savings to bring with them. Often these savings are way higher than the government requirement is.

Nobody knows whether there's going to be a crash or not. I don't think that Corona is going to do that, maybe only put a dent into the market, for a brief period.

scrubbedexpat091

Your probably right.

My end goal would be to have a house somewhere but the hurdle is what jobs and kinds can someone like me try for that pays a high enough salary to have a house somewhere.

OrangeMango

Probably, yes, maybe. I am not really a property market analyst. However I think that immigration and property prices and supply and demand are closely interlinked in Canada.

And also, since Canada is requiring immigrants to have some kind of either professional or university background and or a certain amount of finances and language skills, Canada and Canadian legislation is drawing on getting the skilled and the brain into the country. Often immigrants are attracted to Canada from those countries in Asia ( India or China ) where there is a massive population or a strong difference between haves and have nots. Thus the financial background is also a matter when it comes to the demand question, when immigrants and new arrivals to Canada buy property. This demand is naturally fuelled with skilled labour and capital, and often by individuals with university degrees and technical knowledge, both of us can't even imagine.....

In general I feel that in Toronto the market is overblown and is bound for a correction. Whether that's Corona or not, I don't know. Even Vancouver seems more realistic, factoring in all the natural beauties the countryside around Vancouver offers and Toronto clearly lacks.

Stumpylegs

I wonder if it will become more like the the UK - the average wage and average house price has meant affording doesn't mean you can afford to buy the house - you buy a piece of it.

Aside from the rental trap, you have another big portion trapped in shared ownership homes (you own 25/50/75% and rent the other portion) then a chunk more who are on help2buy schemes (you get 25% of the house as an interest free loan for 5 years, you then accrue interest - but its for 25% of the value of the house, so if the house goes up, so does the loan, realise you don't end up losing out when you come to sell, but does mean in theory if house prices jump 10% in 2 years, that last 25% has cost you 27.5% in actual pound notes if you wanted to buy the 25%) - granted you can of course save up to buy the additional portion of your home, and the partial rental partial mortgage is typically no dearer than a normal rental.

Canada still seems cheaper and more affordable than the UK, dependant on area - but you seem to be catching up quick.

DandNHill

Where I'm currently seeing the biggest impact to the market is not the buy/sell, but lease market. There are less sellers/buyers so that balances things out pretty much and here in Ontario there are still lots of multiple offer situations.

But it's the tenants I feel for. As less buyers are entering the market they still have to have somewhere to live so they are renting. This is putting some very qualified tenants out there and so your average tenant who would have been welcomed with open arms this time last year doesn't stand a chance this year!

scrubbedexpat091

Renting in parts of Canada can be super stressful, especially if not in a dedicated rental, never know when you unit/house your renting might be sold, and rental market so tight may not even find a new place of the same quality, especially in places like Vancouver where vacancy rate is low.

What is a lease market?