DaveLovesDee

Because each party wants something from the other, while giving as little as they can. Add in lobbyists for certain groups, and that services are a major part of the UK's economy, there's going to be lots of horse-trading.

The A-bomb took years of work in a single direction by lots of different experts in their fields, and the calculations had been triple-checked. Trade negotiations start with both parties at opposite sides.

scrubbedexpat099

World Wars have been fought quicker.

dbd33

Also there are very many parties involved, countries in the case of the EU, States in the case of the US, and there's no precedent for negotiating a deal, at the national level, where no one involved hopes to gain. It must be quite dispiriting to negotiate a lose-lose arrangement.

BristolUK

No need to. I only wanted to respond to one part.

I didn't ignore the other part, it didn't seem relevant. I mean what's the point of all that "didn't we just do that so why even consider it again" (paraphrasing) and then seemingly recognising that there might be a reason for doing it again?

There's already a date there and it may be extended a couple of years. He's not introducing a deadline, he wants to prevent that possibility, come what may.

That seems foolish. Aside from which, given the way the election was conducted and the government's majority how could the mind not be concentrated?

The post that started this particular topic said Boris "certainly intends his withdrawal agreement getting through, he is trying to make it illegal to block it. Dictator or not?"

Seems fair comment to me.

dave_j

I'd argue that negotiating trade deals is a prime example of Parkinson's Law. Give negotiators ten years and they'll take twelve, give them four years and they'll take six. There's little need to complete early and every incentive to drag it out. Nobody expects it to be completed quickly, but there's no reason it shouldn't be, just means a lot fewer liquid lunches and a slimmer expense account that's all.

You see the mentality, even on here and before negotiations start, it's a 'Can't be done' attitude.

Remember JFK and his 'Moon by the end of the decade' speech when nobody thought it possible? Well that deadline concentrated minds well... but I expect there are those here that believe it was all a hoax and think the US send a cardboard replica to the moon.

Where there's a will.....

dave_j

If there's even a remote possibility of extending this process then I guarantee that it will be.
Why do today what we can put off until tomorrow? It's what they do. It's the nature of the beast.

DaveLovesDee

I'd argue that the biggest obstacle to negotiating trade deals is if one party wants certain concessions made for their products into the other's markets, but are unwilling to reciprocate.

And the UK's services base isn't going to be an asset in many FTAs.

That's because what is being asked for, and the public told to expect, is unrealistic in parts. That's not an attitude, that's actual reality. Like the UK previously expecting the EU to give it everything it wanted.

Yes, that deadline was met, but only because everything was meticulously planned, and the mishaps were few. And it cost a massive amount of money. Back then the US was also paying for a war in SE Asia, and the moon landings provided a welcome diversion for their government to give the public something other than dead and injured US soldiers coming home from Vietnam.

If there's a slight possibility of extending the process, to be able to agree to something in the UK's interests, I'd go with that. But the UK civil service will do it's job properly whoever's in government.

https://www.democraticaudit.com/2019...mortal-danger/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...civil-servants

dave_j

I'm an avid follower of the fortunes of Tesla. I'd like one myself but somehow the numbers don't add up for me.
Over the years I've followed the ups and downs and eagerly await the Q4 2019 deliveries to see how they're doing.
Now I don't own, or have ever owned, any equity in the company but I do wish them well and I've followed the stories dished out by the shorts and longs and they're still coming.
Tesla has been in business for some time now, their model 3 has been establishing the EV presence in the marketplace and their Gigafactory 3, built in record time on the outskirts of Shanghai is a demonstration of what can be done when there's a will. It's been tight and the company very nearly folded a few years ago but that was then
'Now what has Tesla got to do with Brexit?' I hear you ask.
Well, after 10 years and with an established business you'd think that there'd be something of a consensus as to how the business would be doing but that's not so. The question is why?
Well, like Brexit, any potential success of any enterprise is moulded within the mind of the interested player who in turn seeks to mould the views of others. Existing evidence used to predict future developments is the same whether you it is used to suggest the glass is half empty or half full but if you have a personal beneficial interest in the outcome then evidence is often distorted to support your point of view, eg whether you happen to be shorting the stock or hanging on for better times.
You might think that this is a long winded way of saying, 'Yes I know all of this, tell me something I don't know!'
The point I'm trying to make, and one designed to stimulate discussion rather than provoke the usual useless claptrap, is that after all the angst surrounding whether Brexit should happen or not, it's time to cast aside personal preferences and examine whatever evidence does exist in order to predict future developments and at the moment, you have to admit, there's precious little of it about. It's like Tesla when they first had the idea that if they made an EV then someone would buy it, there were those (including Musk himself) who thought that the business might fail but that it was the right idea at the right time and, most importantly, there was a will to succeed.
You can even, at a stretch, consider existing car manufacturers to be a little like the EU, a dinosaur of a business that saw, and still sees Tesla as an enterprise doomed to failure and earnestly wishes that it would simply go away. Even today there are those that hate the very idea of a car that doesn't need gas to drive it along, but they're coming around to the idea slowly because it makes sense.
Boris and Brexit, nobody knows what'll happen, and it'll take an effort of will to drive it and I don't rate politicians too highly, like Tesla it'll take time before we know whether there's been enough of it, and if there has then look behind you because the EU will be working hard to catch up.
Now I don't expect many to agree with this, and I expect the usual buffoonery and ya-boo-sucks, but it's a new year, I haven't had a drink yet, so I thought I'd give someone the reason they needed to yell at something.
Happy New Year!

JamesM

Comparing Britain to Tesla? More like Rover which was swallowed up in the end.

Brexit presents the biggest challenge to the UK car industry since the 1970's and will potentially cut the industry in half.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/28/busin...try/index.html

There is nothing remotely progressive about Brexit. It is now a matter of making the best of a situation which will be years of coming up with new trade agreements that can paper over the many cracks that are about to be created.

dbd33

Reliant Robin. Brexit is moving the country from being a figurative Morgan; German powered, Italian owned, still uniquely English, to a situation where the van of Trotter's Independent Traders has all the capacity the economy will need.

mikelincs

Johnson is adamant that we will be completely out by 31st December 2020, which, to me, sounds like a 'no deal' Brexit due to the time frame, in which case the UK ecconomy will tank.

DaveLovesDee

That was the date originally agreed to between the EU and UK to be the end of the post-Brexit transition period, and at that point EU law would no longer apply, except where botth parties agree to continue it. This date has not changed despite numerous extensions to our actual Brexit date.

BristolUK

dbd33

Exactemente!

dbd33

I just came across a comment on another talkboard which seems relevant here: