Coronavirus

Old Apr 14th 2020, 11:13 pm
  #1366  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by dave_j View Post
Sure some countries will have kept their deaths lower than others, others who've retained a higher GDP and still others who've retained the same government/rulers but generally speaking they'll all have attempted to do the best they could for that proportion of the population they thought best to represent.
This seems like a weak justification for the Trump/Johnson **** the little people position. The proper objective, fewer dead people, doesn't need muddling "with subjection to retention of a significant proportion of GDP". The government is obliged to represent all the people.

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Old Apr 15th 2020, 12:23 am
  #1367  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
Where's the hindsight in that? New Zealand and Canada are making a good job of it. Boris has made a Brexit of it, instead of saving the country, he's caught it himself.
I meant hindsight in all what you stated in your post, we can all be experts now. Its impossible to compare the UK with New Zealand.... The population of the UK is more than 10 times the size of NZ. plus the UK is a huge airline hub serving the world, these two factors alone is what I think the UK had stacked against it from the start, coupled with the failure to test more, especially on incoming flights coming into the UK....that was a mistake.

I agree Canada has done a decent job, much of that down to the action of the provincial governments though. Needless to say we are in a way better situation than the US, they failed to act soon enough. As I said every country is a different case, and no government at the time knew if their plan was going to work for their country, I think the only country that has really screwed up is the US, by doing too little too late.
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 1:08 am
  #1368  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Paul_Shepherd View Post
I meant hindsight in all what you stated in your post, we can all be experts now. Its impossible to compare the UK with New Zealand.... The population of the UK is more than 10 times the size of NZ. plus the UK is a huge airline hub serving the world, these two factors alone is what I think the UK had stacked against it from the start, coupled with the failure to test more, especially on incoming flights coming into the UK....that was a mistake.

I agree Canada has done a decent job, much of that down to the action of the provincial governments though. Needless to say we are in a way better situation than the US, they failed to act soon enough. As I said every country is a different case, and no government at the time knew if their plan was going to work for their country, I think the only country that has really screwed up is the US, by doing too little too late.
I think Brazil, Sweden, the UK and the US have likely made a mess of this, if we use avoidance of preventable death as the measure, maybe other countries too. The crowds in the parks in the weekend in the UK suggest that there isn't a general adoption of social distancing, as in Canada, and there isn't enforcement of distancing, as in India. If, however, we look at retention of GDP or shift in net worth of members of government, they're likely the best.

South Korea, despite a large population, having busy airports, and not being an island, is the stand out nation in terms of prevention.

I agree with dave_j that the priorities of government are a consideration but wonder why anyone would want a government with the priorities of Johnson or Trump.

Last edited by dbd33; Apr 15th 2020 at 1:11 am.
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 1:12 am
  #1369  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by dbd33 View Post
This seems like a weak justification for the Trump/Johnson **** the little people position. The proper objective, fewer dead people, doesn't need muddling "with subjection to retention of a significant proportion of GDP". The government is obliged to represent all the people.
I don't choose to defend, condemn or justify any position here. Unlike you I don''t have sacred cows that pop up at every opportunity, I try to understand why people do what they do. I do have a down on the political class in general, but I do try to be sensible.
You might argue that Trump and Johnson have cocked it up completely and should be beheaded but categorising Johnson with Trump is doing what Trump does, he introduces misleading arguments to support shaky faky arguments.
Johnson, like leaders throughout Europe was faced with difficult choices, choices that with hindsight were time critical. Some countries were fortunate in being a short period behind others whereas some became virus torch bearers, it all depended on who landed and who happened to be a virus carrier, early on this would have been pot luck.
All countries became afflicted. You might argue that Johnson's early policy of generating herd imunity to defeat the virus shouldn't have been attempted, and you're correct time was lost because of this, but I don't believe it was attempted in order to kill people. You might further argue that economic factors may have swayed decision making and again you're probably correct. However we can now see that there were consequences either way, as we are discovering of throwing millions out of work or increasing the death rate.
Unlike those who had to believe them, I had little faith in the mathematical models they had to use, you need data to tie these models down and there simply wasn't any. They'll be better next time but that'll be next time no doubt they were taken as gospel truth by those who knew little about them or the assumptions made.
Sweden is attempting to progress with a Johnson type policy and we'll wait and see how that works out. Sweden may exit from the virus in better shape ALL things considered, we'll have to wait and see.
What can be argued with some justification is that he dithered. He went with Plan A and then changed mid stream to Plan B, and it was this dithering that introduced delay into a sequence of time critical events that became worse with delay. It's possible that had he persevered with plan A then because of the existing delay and the already widespread introduction of the virus then the need to 'stay at home' may not have been required. A good model might have shown this, but they aren't very good.
Like I say, I'm relieved I wasn't there to decide which plan to adopt.

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Old Apr 15th 2020, 1:18 am
  #1370  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

"Johnson with Trump is doing what Trump does, he introduces misleading arguments to support shaky faky arguments."

How is it misleading or unfair to lump together two dodgy populists who share a political agenda and regard each other as ideological soul mates?
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 4:54 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus

BC update for Tuesday

27 new cases, 3 more deaths, all connected to long term care homes.
total cases as of today 1,517 of which 942 have recovered.
new outbreak in a long term care home
134 in hospital with 58 in ICU
41 inmates & correctional guards at Mission Federal Prison now have tested positive with 7 in hospital.

Too early to set date for relaxing of restrictions, a number of factors will need to be considered before a date can be set for restrictions to be eased such as status of other provinces, ability to monitor the US border, ability to quickly detect new outbreaks, and the status of the healthcare system.

Translink (the Metro Vancouver transit agency) is losing $75 million per month due to low ridership and is asking the federal and provincial government for emergency funding.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...l-14-1.5531399

Some local Vancouver businesses are throwing in the towel and closing up shop for good & break and enters are up, over 40 have been arrested in the past few weeks caught breaking into closed businesses in Vancouver.





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Old Apr 15th 2020, 12:09 pm
  #1372  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by dave_j View Post
I don't choose to defend, condemn or justify any position here. Unlike you I don''t have sacred cows that pop up at every opportunity, I try to understand why people do what they do. I do have a down on the political class in general, but I do try to be sensible.
You might argue that Trump and Johnson have cocked it up completely and should be beheaded but categorising Johnson with Trump is doing what Trump does, he introduces misleading arguments to support shaky faky arguments.
Johnson, like leaders throughout Europe was faced with difficult choices, choices that with hindsight were time critical. Some countries were fortunate in being a short period behind others whereas some became virus torch bearers, it all depended on who landed and who happened to be a virus carrier, early on this would have been pot luck.
All countries became afflicted. You might argue that Johnson's early policy of generating herd imunity to defeat the virus shouldn't have been attempted, and you're correct time was lost because of this, but I don't believe it was attempted in order to kill people. You might further argue that economic factors may have swayed decision making and again you're probably correct. However we can now see that there were consequences either way, as we are discovering of throwing millions out of work or increasing the death rate.
Unlike those who had to believe them, I had little faith in the mathematical models they had to use, you need data to tie these models down and there simply wasn't any. They'll be better next time but that'll be next time no doubt they were taken as gospel truth by those who knew little about them or the assumptions made.
Sweden is attempting to progress with a Johnson type policy and we'll wait and see how that works out. Sweden may exit from the virus in better shape ALL things considered, we'll have to wait and see.
What can be argued with some justification is that he dithered. He went with Plan A and then changed mid stream to Plan B, and it was this dithering that introduced delay into a sequence of time critical events that became worse with delay. It's possible that had he persevered with plan A then because of the existing delay and the already widespread introduction of the virus then the need to 'stay at home' may not have been required. A good model might have shown this, but they aren't very good.
Like I say, I'm relieved I wasn't there to decide which plan to adopt.
Id agree with most of what have said there Dave. Johnson switched stratergies half way through and dithered...resulting in neither plan A or plan B working effectively. Trump on the other hand, did nothing, he just wanted it to go away as it was going to affect his re election chances, he still thinks that way. I have little,time for that man. Johnson on the other hand made a mistake of switching strategies, but at least he was doing something. And yes as I said too....the jury is out on Sweden at the moment....
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 3:15 pm
  #1373  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Paul_Shepherd View Post
Id agree with most of what have said there Dave. Johnson switched stratergies half way through and dithered...resulting in neither plan A or plan B working effectively. Trump on the other hand, did nothing, he just wanted it to go away as it was going to affect his re election chances, he still thinks that way. I have little,time for that man. Johnson on the other hand made a mistake of switching strategies, but at least he was doing something. And yes as I said too....the jury is out on Sweden at the moment....
As you are likely aware, what the Federal government in the US can do in times like this is massively outweighed by what the individual States can do (regarding controlling its residents), just as is the case in Canada.

While I appreciate that this site is clearly pro-Trump and some of the suggestions he makes are a stretch, the main thrust of his argument makes sense to me:

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Old Apr 15th 2020, 4:48 pm
  #1374  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Paul_Shepherd View Post
Id agree with most of what have said there Dave. Johnson switched stratergies half way through and dithered...resulting in neither plan A or plan B working effectively. Trump on the other hand, did nothing, he just wanted it to go away as it was going to affect his re election chances, he still thinks that way. I have little,time for that man. Johnson on the other hand made a mistake of switching strategies, but at least he was doing something. And yes as I said too....the jury is out on Sweden at the moment....
According to this the scientists appear to have been slow to sound the alarm. It is probable that Johnson was also reluctant to impose the lock down, initially wishing to to
encourage rather than impose behavior in the first instance. Whether Sweden has taken the right approach for them will no doubt be seen over the next couple of months. I read there were 19 patients at the Nightingale hospital in London over the weekend so for the time being at least the treatment capacity seems to be more than adequate. I didn't vote for Johnson but I doubt the other candidate would have done any better in this situation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21P1VF
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 5:01 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
As you are likely aware, what the Federal government in the US can do in times like this is massively outweighed by what the individual States can do (regarding controlling its residents), just as is the case in Canada.

While I appreciate that this site is clearly pro-Trump and some of the suggestions he makes are a stretch, the main thrust of his argument makes sense to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYyGpLdBcP8
Interesting. How would you say the Canadian provincial leaders have done compared to the federal?
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 5:52 pm
  #1376  
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Can we PLEASE not turn this into another Political thread........
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 6:00 pm
  #1377  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Siouxie View Post
Can we PLEASE not turn this into another Political thread........
Ahhhhhh, but theirs the rub, any matter of such magnitude as Covic 19, will always be tainted with the stench of politics. Just ask dbd33....
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 6:00 pm
  #1378  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
As you are likely aware, what the Federal government in the US can do in times like this is massively outweighed by what the individual States can do (regarding controlling its residents), just as is the case in Canada.

While I appreciate that this site is clearly pro-Trump and some of the suggestions he makes are a stretch, the main thrust of his argument makes sense to me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYyGpLdBcP8
Yes thats fair enough, I cant disagree with that, and as much as I dislike Trump the actual good things he does are not covered by a left wing biased media. I just feel Trump was slow out of the starting blocks....he tried to down play it at first as he obviously has his own agenda (re election)
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 6:04 pm
  #1379  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

SIGH. Keep politics out of this thread please - if you want to discuss politics of Covid-19 take it to a separate one. Thank you... I won't ask again..... I'll just take action.
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Old Apr 15th 2020, 6:07 pm
  #1380  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian View Post
As you are likely aware, what the Federal government in the US can do in times like this is massively outweighed by what the individual States can do (regarding controlling its residents) ....
Anyone who is interested in what is happening in the US, as compared to other countries, would do well to research what the US Constitution says about actions taken at the federal level, and what the laws in states actually allow a governor to do - generally only to close specific businesses that are suspected of a breach of law, not to close broad business sectors.

Personally I think it is a miracle that the US has managed as much of a "lock down" as it has. Thankfully there are many sensible leaders of business and churches in the US, who have taken the guidance seriously and followed it even if it could not be legally enforced, who have recognized the need to reduce the opportunities of the virus to spread, because per the US Constitution and per the letter of the law, there is actually very little than either the US President or state governors can do to actually force businesses to close on a blanket basis, and especially to prohibit churches from holding services.
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