Coronavirus

Old Jul 3rd 2020, 8:06 pm
  #2011  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Gozit
I could also catch it at the shopping mall (which are now open) and I don't self isolate when I come back from there.
I agree with Shard. You are sitting very close to someone for hours and hours on a plane. You have no idea where any of the other passengers have been. Masks will be removed when eating and drinking. Some will not wear masks for health reasons. IMO you cannot begin to compare walking around a mall to sitting in a plane for hours and hours. My daughter was sat near someone who died of COVID when she came back from the UK in March.
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Old Jul 3rd 2020, 9:43 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard
The infection level is hard to compare, because of different testing regimes. On the other hand the death rate is a bit more, shall we say, final...and correlates to the infection level. On this basis, Canada is doing much better at virus control that the UK.

Canada 230 deaths per million
UK 650 deaths per million
That's total deaths not new deaths though, it doesn't give a picture of how safe a country is currently - Brazil would look only slightly higher risk than Canada using total deaths. Think to make the call on whether a country is low or high risk you've got to look at either daily, weekly or monthly totals (of infection or deaths, I think both have their merits) for the recent past to see what risk that country still presents.

I think I may have said this before but I think death totals are as skewable if not more skewable as they are subjective. trouble is I know at the start Britain was over egging its death totals and do wonder if its under egging them now.

Working pretty closely with this (maintain a fleet of private ambulances that collect the deceased from places outside of hospitals) in mid to late march when everyone was a lot more concerned, the UK didn't have enough tests going round, they wouldn't waste a test on the deceased (in my area at least). So if anyone had rang nhs direct, or a friend or family member had reported they had suffered from covid like symptoms it was a case of recording the cause of death as presumed covid. Whether they had covid or not. (this then meant quarantine of the vehicle until deep cleans had took place etcl

For those deaths of the terminally Ill who have cancer, water infections and covid - what is the cause of death recorded as now (I honestly don't know).

Covid ripping through a large hospice or nursing home - killing 15% of the population. tragic as it may be, could throw a countries Death toll out of whack for weeks even if outside of that setting the country is having very few positive cases.

​​​​​​

Last edited by Stumpylegs; Jul 3rd 2020 at 10:05 pm.
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Old Jul 3rd 2020, 10:52 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

I think many people are too busy to consider how this virus got going.
Once upon a time there was one C19 victim, just one, that's right, just one.
Today, the number infected bears witness to just how virulent this virus is, so take notice.
It's insanity to do anything but realise that the 2M plus currently infected in the US won't expand to become 200M plus, and that no matter how much you might try to dampen the extent of the infection it'll take anyone who lets it, and that means in all countries, even those who think they're doing well.
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Old Jul 3rd 2020, 11:26 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by dave_j
I think many people are too busy to consider how this virus got going.
Once upon a time there was one C19 victim, just one, that's right, just one.
Today, the number infected bears witness to just how virulent this virus is, so take notice.
It's insanity to do anything but realise that the 2M plus currently infected in the US won't expand to become 200M plus, and that no matter how much you might try to dampen the extent of the infection it'll take anyone who lets it, and that means in all countries, even those who think they're doing well.
And seems the virus is mutating and becoming more infectious, which in part explains why the US is such a mess now, the predominate strain there is apparently 3 to 9 times more infectious than the earlier strain a couple months ago.

And it may keep mutating making it more and more infectious or mutate to become deadlier, this thing is tricky, and apparently the part of the virus that has mutated is what they were targeting in vaccines so who knows with this new mutation the vaccine work on the older strain may not be viable now, possible there may never be a vaccine for it if it can mutate this quickly.

Are the people who were infected early in the year with one strain immune to the mutated strain even?

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Old Jul 4th 2020, 8:26 am
  #2015  
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs
That's total deaths not new deaths though, it doesn't give a picture of how safe a country is currently - Brazil would look only slightly higher risk than Canada using total deaths. Think to make the call on whether a country is low or high risk you've got to look at either daily, weekly or monthly totals (of infection or deaths, I think both have their merits) for the recent past to see what risk that country still presents.

I think I may have said this before but I think death totals are as skewable if not more skewable as they are subjective. trouble is I know at the start Britain was over egging its death totals and do wonder if its under egging them now.

Working pretty closely with this (maintain a fleet of private ambulances that collect the deceased from places outside of hospitals) in mid to late march when everyone was a lot more concerned, the UK didn't have enough tests going round, they wouldn't waste a test on the deceased (in my area at least). So if anyone had rang nhs direct, or a friend or family member had reported they had suffered from covid like symptoms it was a case of recording the cause of death as presumed covid. Whether they had covid or not. (this then meant quarantine of the vehicle until deep cleans had took place etcl

For those deaths of the terminally Ill who have cancer, water infections and covid - what is the cause of death recorded as now (I honestly don't know).

Covid ripping through a large hospice or nursing home - killing 15% of the population. tragic as it llmay be, could throw a countries Death toll out of whack for weeks even if outside of that setting the country is having very few positive cases.

​​​​​​
That's true, the death figures are historic. Without an intensive testing regime it's hard to know the real-time level of infection. Although hospital admissions/tested and associated growth rates is a lagging indicator.
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Old Jul 4th 2020, 3:18 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard
That's true, the death figures are historic. Without an intensive testing regime it's hard to know the real-time level of infection. Although hospital admissions/tested and associated growth rates is a lagging indicator.
There's information available if you dig through - updated daily/weekly - it might help https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...h-data.html#a1
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Old Jul 6th 2020, 3:48 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jerseygirl
I agree with Shard. You are sitting very close to someone for hours and hours on a plane. You have no idea where any of the other passengers have been. Masks will be removed when eating and drinking. Some will not wear masks for health reasons. IMO you cannot begin to compare walking around a mall to sitting in a plane for hours and hours. My daughter was sat near someone who died of COVID when she came back from the UK in March.
Ok, so then someone flying from Vancouver to Toronto should be required to self isolate but they aren't, the line in the sand is drawn at travelling outside the country and that's where it is arbitrary.
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Old Jul 6th 2020, 3:50 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Shard
The whole point of having a quarantine is to errect a barrier between what is deemed the outside of a defined inside. In this case, Canada is "inside". So your examples of Canadian shopping malls and Canadian flights are totally irrelevant. It may well be that the risk is low if coming from somewhere like Malta, but it's not zero, and therefore there remains a rationale to require quarantine.
And that's where we disagree. I (and my MP) don't agree there is a rationale for quarantine from all countries. Government is just taking a lazy approach, no one is really going to change my mind on that. If the risk is low, then it shouldn't be required.

At some point we have to go back to living our lives and leave it to personal choice whether people accept the risk of being infected or give them the supports and choice to stay isolated if that is what they feel is best for them.
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Old Jul 6th 2020, 4:03 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Gozit
Ok, so then someone flying from Vancouver to Toronto should be required to self isolate but they aren't, the line in the sand is drawn at travelling outside the country and that's where it is arbitrary.
That sounds quite specific actually. While its possible for the provinces to all do their own thing, they are considering advice and recommendations from pretty much the same sources and Canada does have a certain amount of control within its border.

Current Covid-19 practices between Vancouver and Toronto are more closely related and more in line with Canada generally than, say, between Canada and Mexico/Brazil/UK etc

Canada cannot influence how other countries do things, so there are different requirements for those travelling to Canada from other countries.

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Old Jul 6th 2020, 4:07 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Gozit
Ok, so then someone flying from Vancouver to Toronto should be required to self isolate but they aren't, the line in the sand is drawn at travelling outside the country and that's where it is arbitrary.
why would someone travelling internally need to self isolate...unless there was a large spike in numbers, as in Florida?
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Old Jul 6th 2020, 4:10 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Gozit
And that's where we disagree. I (and my MP) don't agree there is a rationale for quarantine from all countries. Government is just taking a lazy approach, no one is really going to change my mind on that. If the risk is low, then it shouldn't be required. ....
At some point last year there were only a few hundred known cases, all of them in China, then in the following weeks almost every country around the world had one person enter carrying the disease, and that person, or another person who entered soon after and carrying the disease, spread that disease to a second person, and a third, and then the disease got passed on to hundreds of other people in most countries (as of today there are 169 countries with more than 200 cases, and another eleven countries with 100-199 cases). From there things has further spiralled towards crisis in many countries, as there are now 21 countries with over 100,000 cases, including Canada and if you look at the list of countries impacted, it is almost certain that many of the countries with 10,000-99,000 cases have woefully inadequate testing. If you live in a country where there have been over 100,000 cases, under these circumstances (that it only took one person and a few months to lead to the infection of 100,000+ people), you could only come to the conclusion that there is a "low risk", if you are either [1] ignorant of the facts and are in denial, or [2] are an idiot.
.... At some point we have to go back to living our lives and leave it to personal choice whether people accept the risk of being infected or give them the supports and choice to stay isolated if that is what they feel is best for them.
That point of view entirely ignores the fact that you "getting back to living" runs the risk of passing the disease to others, including your family, and others who may be older and/or less able to fight the infections successfully. This disease is a problem for society, and we can only fight it successfuly if we all fight it together - to wit Florida and Texas, where even a small percentage of idiots has put the entire community on the track to a crisis!

Last edited by Pulaski; Jul 6th 2020 at 4:39 pm.
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Old Jul 6th 2020, 4:14 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jerseygirl
Why would someone travelling internally need to self isolate ....?
Why would someone be travelling anywhere if there isn't a need to do so? (Where "need" includes for work if you are unable to WFH, for medical treatment, and to obtain food, etc.)

Most days we don't leave our own property and the only "travelling" the three of us (incl my wife and daughter) do most weeks is me making one trip to buy groceries.

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Old Jul 6th 2020, 4:25 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Pulaski
Why would someone be travelling anywhere if there isn't a need to do so? (Where "need" includes for work if you are unable to WFH, for medical treatment, and to obtain food, etc.)

Most days we don't leave our own property and the only "travelling" the three of us (incl my wife and daughter) do most weeks is me making one trip to buy groceries.

well yes...there is that. We are like you...we are staying home...if we do go out we mask up. Problem is the young folk...they think they are invincible and are eager to get on with their lives.
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Old Jul 6th 2020, 4:34 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Pulaski
At some point last year there were only a few hundred known cases, all of them in China, then in the following weeks almost every country around the world had one person enter carrying the disease, and that person, or another person who entered soon after and carrying the disease, spread that disease to a second person, and a third, and then the disease got passed on to hundreds of other people..
To put this on a smaller scale for most of the last few months, the Atlantic provinces have restricted travel across borders. There were a few exceptions.

Over 90& of cases in NB were travel related; the traveller themselves or close contact of the traveller. It was so well controlled that at one point we had just a couple of new cases in a month and only about 130 cases altogether with no deaths.

Then one individual went deep into Quebec, where cases were common, lied about his reasons and, so, didn't self isolate upon return. That person has been linked with around 30 cases since, increasing the total cases, singlehandedly by 25%. And two died. From the actions of one person.

Last week, the Atlantic provinces decided to open up to each other with no restrictions, but not with Quebec.

PEI had apparently gone months without new cases. It's now known that before borders opened up, a resident of PEI went to NS to meet someone who had arrived from the USA. It sounds like the required quarantining wasn't done. The American has tested positive, so has the PEI resident who came for the meeting and four others in PEI too, all from that one person in NS.

How many others will soon test positive in NS from the same one and on PEI from the same few?

And this is with 'closed' borders.
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Old Jul 6th 2020, 4:42 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Jerseygirl
well yes...there is that. We are like you...we are staying home...if we do go out we mask up. Problem is the young folk...they think they are invincible and are eager to get on with their lives.
Despite all these figures that A) the young are being adversely affected by it after all and B) mounting evidence that 'recovery' isn't the end of illness, with reports of blood clotting, strokes etc afflicting those who were thought to have recovered.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...d-symptoms-who
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