seanyg

Hi there,

Just wondering what people's opinions are on if / how the USA's economic problems might affect the Canadian housing market.

If we do suffer a recession here in the UK (I said 'if'...) I'm sure I won't be the only PR applicant biting their fingernails if the Canadian housing market continues to rise and our houses over here crash (especially when you might have to sell up quick if you get a job offer).

Though obviously - for the sake of current Canadian residents - I hope the Canadian market stays buoyant

Anita (currently wondering if she should sell up or ride it out!)

Surrey Expat

In BC there is no sign of a crash, although their might be a slow down in the next 12 months.

MarkG

Saskatoon seems pretty flat right now, though someone's trying to sell a house of the same design as ours in the next road over for about 20% more than we paid in September; I don't think they'll get it any time soon, but they might in the spring. My guess is that the East is likely to suffer in a US recession but the West will be buoyed up by the commodities boom so long as China keeps sucking up so much oil and other resources.

Frank'n Sense

We had an analyst from CMHC talk at our real estate office a couple of weeks ago and the prediction was for prices in most of Metro Vancouver to rise around 7% in 2008 and flatten out for 2009.

No one knows. When I was in your situation I ended up giving up trying to control UK house prices, Canadian house prices and the exchange rate. You can only do so much...

Warmly,

Frank

Novocastrian

Not at all an expert, but I think only one of the major Canadian banks (CIBC?), has significant exposure to the sub-prime crisis down there. Here in Ontario things go on as before. But who really knows? Not I.

seanyg

Frank - I agree, we need to chill and just see what happens, but every time you open a UK newspaper it reminds you of our economic vulnerability (America sneezes, we catch a cold) and you can't help but wonder what's going to happen across the Atlantic...more specifically in NB and NS as this is where we intend to settle (just one of 'em - not both!).

Mark - why would the East suffer more than the West, out of interest...? I thought there were oil-mining industries out East as well? (not to grumble though, as we're heading East hopefully!).

Anita

Atlantic Xpat

Out here in the Far East, if some of the real estate agents are to be believed prices are going to rise by 100% over the next 5 years in St. John's. I certainly think sustained rises of 7-10% for the next few years if all the new oil projects come off are possible.

Judy in Calgary

I think that when Mark used the term "East," he probably was referring to Canada's manufacturing base in Ontario and Quebec. People in Western Canada often refer to Ontario as "The East," which it is, relatively speaking. But, technically, Ontario is in the east-central part of Canada.

Atlantic Xpat

Or to put it another way, Canadian Hippies and Rednecks have little sense of geography?

Steve_P

To slightly clarify Judy's statement it's not just Ontario that most westerners consider to be the east.

It is anything east of the Manitoba/Ontario border.

Geography is just fine.

We do make exceptions for the Atlantic provinces though as they provide a goodly portion of our workforce.

Howard1944

R.E Prices for the most part will hold steady, the Bof c have no choice but to follow bernanke and keep rates low, and it is low rates that have fuelled this market.

Certain areas will continue to see bouyant prices fuelled by strong demand, The Georgian Triangle is a destination for boomers retiring, selling off their TO homes and driving prices here.

TO continues to have strong condo growth, but when rates return to 10% +, there will be bargains available.

My small community of Thornbury has seen 400%+ change in home values in the last 10 years, and they are still going up, recreational property is in great demand.

Strong growth will continue in the Barrie area as the Liberal freeze on the Moraine forces all builders to look North.

edsask

Although they have gone up a heckuva lot in the last few years - my mother-in-law's house is now worth $200,000 when you could have got it for half that price 10 years ago - I'd also expect Saskatoon to be fairly immune.

I can't speak for places (relatively) out east, but in Alberta and BC, especially around Vancouver, I think the prices will remain pretty rock-solid, even climbing. Some places generate a momentum of their own, with the overall economic climate only having a marginal effect on house prices.

MarkG

True .

MarkG

To be fair, Saskatoon prices are probably around where they should be when compared to the cost of construction; I'd say they were rather undervalued 3-4 years ago. However, there are a lot of empty new houses owned by 'investors' from Alberta and elsewhere, so there's certainly room for prices to drop if they have to sell up fast.

JonboyE

Quite. But we were talking about house prices.