scrubbedexpat091

Max aircraft are really starting to pile up.

https://www.businessinsider.com/boei...ng-but-cars-19

Looks like Boeing will have the software use data from 2 flight control computers vs 1 that was originally used.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/a...c-fb16d6ca14d6

scrubbedexpat091

Interesting article on what airlines have to do with the aircraft while they are grounded to keep the planes in good shape.

Air Canada is also considering relocating their aircraft to the desert in the US as winter approaches.

Southwest who has the largest MAX fleet I believe, says once they are cleared to fly each plane will take about 120 hours of work to become airworthy, and will take 30-60 days to get the entire fleet ready.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyb.../#1ab8ad7d1e61

Gordon Barlow

This from a former Ethiopian Airways pilot. I think he's probably right that the entire fleet will be scrapped.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...oeings-737-max

scrubbedexpat091

If Boeing does have to scrap it completely, airlines are going to be screwed for a long time. Airbus simply doesn't have the capacity to take over that many orders quickly.

dave_j

I wonder.
Boeing has been manufacturing these at 40-50 planes per month for six months now. Let's say they now have about 250 laying around gathering dust. According to Business Insider ' Boeing lists the 737 Max 8 at $121.6 million and according to industry research from Teal Group, buyers usually receive a discount of 50% to 55% on the planes.' So if they get $60M on each plane they have a potential speedy income once the permit to fly is awarded of 250 x 60M = 15,000,000,000 = $15B, no small sum.
Teal Group estimates that ' Boeing's operating profit margin is $12 million to $15 million' meaning that the cost to Boeing to manufacture each Max is 60M - 15M = $45M. This means that as of today Boeing has spent, and will have to write off, approximately 250 x 45M = 11,250,000,000 or about $11B should the MAX be grounded for good, again no trifling sum.
So.. I suspect that many arms will be twisted and many noses dipped in many troughs to ensure that the MAX will fly again.
And if they don't then perhaps the US military could find a use for them...... probably at a cost of $200M each and no doubt Boeing would convert them for a small fee.

dave_j

Not long ago, Tesla guru Elon Musk was hauled over the coals because he incorrectly indicated that he was thinking of buying available Tesla shares at a price higher than the current market price and suggesting that he had finance available. This was not true but it had the effect of increasing the share price with the intent of punishing short sellers who's been targeting Tesla.
Today..
https://articles2.marketrealist.com/...oduction-news/
We hear that Boeing is thinking about increasing the rate at which MAX planes are produced even though they have apparently no indication of when the MAX will be allowed to fly again, however ' Boeing cautioned that its future plans were subject to its receipt of regulatory safety approval in the fourth quarter '
The initial result has been an increase in the Boeing share price.
On the face of it Boeing has issued news that has influenced it's share price using speculative ideas that are not based on fact.
As an interested outsider, who incidentally has no financial interest in either Tesla or Boeing, I find the two stories have a number of similarities in that each has sought to influence their share price by suggesting future events that may or may not happen.
But I doubt that Boeing will suffer as Musk did.
Comments?

calman014

Interesting stuff regarding the shares. I doubt whether the planes will be scrapped but a software "repair" won't be enough I think.

Any plane on the ground is losing money...but the problem is it's like an expensive pet and has to be fed and watered constantly...all the systems have to be maintained and monitored even if it goes nowhere.

Either the wing itself will have to be redesigned or they will just have to compromise and hang other engines on there by reconfiguring the mounts.

MidAtlantic

Trouble mounts for Boeing: https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/27/busin...uit/index.html

Simon Legree

Problem solved.

Here's is "The Software Patch" as per Private Eye !

dave_j

Suit alleges 'Boeing breached the contract by misrepresenting how safe the plane was to fly, and alleges it put profits ahead of safety'.
Will be interesting to read arguments made in Boeing's defense.

dave_j

https://thehill.com/policy/transport...ecember-report
This was always going to be a major problem for Boeing for any number of reasons.
Boeing has thrown it's not inconsiderable weight around in the past and that long coveted chicken is returning home to roost.

Gordon Barlow

And here is another report on the saga, from a well-known blogsite that I've always found to be reliable. The observation that the world's flight-safety regulators no longer trust the FAA, is ominous indeed!
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/0...ding.html#more

dave_j

And... fancy flying in a 777X?
https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...eing-777x-jet/
It shouldn't be surprising that news generates more news simply because it attracts those looking for it.

scrubbedexpat091

Former Chief Technical Pilot on the Max program has invoked his 5th amendment privilege in response to a subpoena from a federal grand jury.

"A former Boeing official who played a key role in the development of the 737 MAX has refused to provide documents sought by federal prosecutors investigating two fatal crashes of the jetliner, citing his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, according to a person familiar with the matter."

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...nt-protection/

Gordon Barlow

Uh-oh! This looks extremely bad for Boeing.