Macsta

Dear forum brethren,

As someone not in MY what is happening to cause the dramatic recent fluctuation in the MYR?

Any predictions for its fortunes in 2018?

SushiFan

What "dramatic" fluctuations have you noticed recently?
To be honest, I don't pay any special attention to the exchange rates.

Macsta

Hi SushiFan,

Mid September GBP to MYR hit 5.7014 and today it is 5.4432 and USD was 4.2594 and today it is 4.0651.

InVinoVeritas

I think it is the oil price which is causing RM to fluctuate, Malaysia still being a 20% petro economy.

kingoflostfools

It's also complicated by a potential interest rate hike by Bank Negara and the timing of an election which must take place before 24th August 2018.

Since January it's dropped from 4.5 MYR / USD to 4.06 MYR / USD while over the same period benchmark crude has risen from $53 USD per barrel to $63 USD per barrel.

The US, however is exporting far more light sweet crude into the asian market which is competing directly against the more expensive, but higher quality Tapis light sweet crude.

eCdD

MYR is recovering now a little bit, nothing special at all. Since 10 years the turnaround point was always around 5,0 to the Euro. Mini currencies like GBP just follow the EUR and USD movement.

Think it will stopp around 4,7 this time, because of the massive government spending in front of the elections. 4,5 and below is only possible with a lot of help from Greece like last time

I sold Euros as crazy above 5,0 and now just laze around and spend the Ringgits

If you expect Bank Negara to take action before the election (I doubt it) then just do 3m FD.

InVinoVeritas

Exactly my point; RM has risen 11% while oil has risen 19%.

SushiFan

I agree with kingoflostfools that the upcoming election has most likely an impact on the exchange rate.

Davita

Math isn't my fav subject, beer is, but how is it 1US$ received MYR4.5 in Jan and today only receives MYR4.06 and, as you've apparently confirmed, is an 11 % increase to a recipient in Malaysia?
I would think the opposite.

InVinoVeritas

I didn't say that. RM has risen 11% which is not good for anyone living in Malaysia and having to convert $ or £ to RM. They will get less.

Pulaski

The ringett has increased in value, making dollar goods, or visits to the US, cheaper if you hold ringetts.

Conversely, the rise of the ringett makes Malaysia more expensive for US visitors, or anyone else who holds USD.

InVinoVeritas

At last, somone who understands me

Davita

I understood that by financial definitions MYR is stronger when it costs less to buy a US$ or other currency. That is good news for those earning MYR and wishing to convert to another currency.

But an expat living in Malaysia, and this is a British Expat Forum, who remits his foreign currency (pension/investment) and exchange to MYR and gets 11 % less today than in Jan......is not an increase. He is poorer unless his cost of living is lowered by the same amount.

skates81

Just three and a bit years ago (2013) when I got MM2H visa, the 1 USD was only equal to RM 2.9, so I wired my USD in Malaysia for the FD for that rate. And soon after I got MM2H, the ringgit depreciated sharply and was recently as low as RM 4.5 to USD, an approximate 50 % decrease in value. I wish I could have applied MM2H when it was 4.5 to USD, I would have saved 50% of my USD capital by doing so. And still, if I cancel my MM2H and reconvert my FD to USD back, I'm going to suffer around 35% of my total USD capital loss.

Macsta

Thanks all for the responses and information plus those who gave predictions.

2018 election - yikes - "Fasten your seat belts, its going to be a bumpy night!"