Darren

Just a thourght,

Anyone in the UK, expecting migration visa in the new year getting
nervous about a possible crash in the UK house market, and hence being
in a much weaker position going to Australia?

I am not too concerned at the moment, but it is a slight worry. I
Applied in April 2001, and looks like being April 2003, before a
decision is made, by those slow London lot. looking at the other
posts.

How closely matched are the 2 economies, and would a world economic
slow down effect both the same, I know some House prices in Australia
have gone bit silly latley also. The electronics industry (my career)
is having a very hard time at the moment, lots of economic doom and
gloom.

I have to admit these last few days having major doubts about the
whole migration thing, As it's been 20 months wait, I started winding
things up, and stopped long term commitments, however as its taking
sooooooooooo long!!!!! just so tied of having life on hold, so decided
to carry on "full on" living for today, and forget this all this until
Visa comes in 2003, or 2004 whenever it is.
Then decide if I want to take my skills and capital to a country, who
can't even get the London DIMA to put enough resouses into finishing
off a couple of months worth of applications, without taking 6 months+
about it. Over 2 years wait is well out of order.

Its the same old story all over the world, Damn, Accountants rule
everywhere, with there short term objectives balancing this years
books, I am refering to penny pinching in the processing in London -
sorry I am getting away from original point.

Speaking as an Engineer

Darren

scoobydooathome

Hi Daren,

Yes we were thinking the same about the property market, we have decided to sell right now then rent just to be sure we get a reasonable price for the house, it would be a nightmare if property crashed in the UK as YES it does make a difference every penny counts, as I read on this forum a Pound in the hand is 2.85 Dollars in the bush............

Good Luck.

Don

Yep, UK property crash due very soon (April 2003?), see my graph.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/images/QuartgraphQ302.gif

Shows affordability, crashes, when to buy, when to sell.

Cheers - Don

scoobydooathome

I better find a buyer soon as possible then...............

What makes you think so, do you live in the South East....

Thanks,

r.bartlett

we're in the same position..

very very scarey

we've talked a lot about selling up and renting..or even travelling. i haven't stared the process but as i should be state sponsored we're only looking at 6 months..

hmm renting looks a safer bet..(cheaper too!!)

cheers

richard

Matt/Jo

Hi,

We were in the same position, but have sold our house and are moving in with
friends in January. Applied June 2001 in London, application now in
Adelaide.

Medicals, Police checks, form 80 all front loaded. 20 months waiting is up
February 6th and according to the letter we received from Adelaide we should
hear before then!!!! (and pigs might fly)

Love Jo, Matt and Jemma



"r.bartlett" wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
    > we're in the same position..
    > very very scarey
    > we've talked a lot about selling up and renting..or even travelling. i
    > haven't stared the process but as i should be state sponsored we're only
    > looking at 6 months..
    > hmm renting looks a safer bet..(cheaper too!!)
    > cheers
    > richard
    > --
    > Posted via http://britishexpats.com

Andy & Siobhan Hanrahan

Hi Darren

We are in pretty much the same time frame as you, applied last March and
expecting the visa just after Christmas.

On a more positive note, if anyone's been following the Papers and News in
the last couple of weeks, they've been saying that a crash as such is not
expected, more of a "slowdown", with prices rising in single figures next
year. Don's graph does look worryingly symmetrical, but my own view is that
with interests rates and unemployment so low, we're not going to see an
80's style crash anytime soon. Apparently, the price falls that have started
to happen at the very high end of the property market in central London
haven't filtered down to the more mid-range properties.

Also, I read recently on RealEstate.com.au that the property boom in Oz is
very much over, with prices stabilising and a lot more properties coming on
to the market. Looking at the Real Estate websites in Queensland, where
we're going, that certainly seems to be the case. Sydney, of course, is a
law unto itself.

Hope this brings some Christmas cheer! Good luck everyone.

Andy

"Darren" wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
    > Just a thourght,
    > Anyone in the UK, expecting migration visa in the new year getting
    > nervous about a possible crash in the UK house market, and hence being
    > in a much weaker position going to Australia?
    > I am not too concerned at the moment, but it is a slight worry. I
    > Applied in April 2001, and looks like being April 2003, before a
    > decision is made, by those slow London lot. looking at the other
    > posts.
    > How closely matched are the 2 economies, and would a world economic
    > slow down effect both the same, I know some House prices in Australia
    > have gone bit silly latley also. The electronics industry (my career)
    > is having a very hard time at the moment, lots of economic doom and
    > gloom.
    > I have to admit these last few days having major doubts about the
    > whole migration thing, As it's been 20 months wait, I started winding
    > things up, and stopped long term commitments, however as its taking
    > sooooooooooo long!!!!! just so tied of having life on hold, so decided
    > to carry on "full on" living for today, and forget this all this until
    > Visa comes in 2003, or 2004 whenever it is.
    > Then decide if I want to take my skills and capital to a country, who
    > can't even get the London DIMA to put enough resouses into finishing
    > off a couple of months worth of applications, without taking 6 months+
    > about it. Over 2 years wait is well out of order.
    > Its the same old story all over the world, Damn, Accountants rule
    > everywhere, with there short term objectives balancing this years
    > books, I am refering to penny pinching in the processing in London -
    > sorry I am getting away from original point.
    > Speaking as an Engineer
    > Darren

Don

I didn't want to scare anyone with my graph...but in both the recent UK property market crashes, average real prices had to slip back by about 25% (ie in real terms, allowing for inflation) before the market started rising again. Because inflation was higher then than now, it meant slightly lower but more often just stagnating house prices for about 4 years - inflation took care of the decrease in real prices, nominal prices didn't change too much outside London.

But now that inflation is so much lower, it would either take a much longer period of house price stagnation or some severe decreases in a shorter period to get that 25% reduction (though 25% is only a rule of thumb).

Look at Japan - house prices have come down by 40% in real terms over the last 10 years. It could happen in UK too.

Enough gloom, cheers - Don

Springbok

I could'nt agree with you more about your views on accountants. I'm
also in engineering & have to put up with endless crap from
accountants who think you can build quality projects with peanuts. I
was in a meeting recently with our suppliers & one of them summed them
up nicely when he said that "an accountant is a condom on the prick of
progress !".




[email protected] (Darren) wrote in message news:...
    > Just a thourght,
    >
    > Anyone in the UK, expecting migration visa in the new year getting
    > nervous about a possible crash in the UK house market, and hence being
    > in a much weaker position going to Australia?
    >
    > I am not too concerned at the moment, but it is a slight worry. I
    > Applied in April 2001, and looks like being April 2003, before a
    > decision is made, by those slow London lot. looking at the other
    > posts.
    >
    > How closely matched are the 2 economies, and would a world economic
    > slow down effect both the same, I know some House prices in Australia
    > have gone bit silly latley also. The electronics industry (my career)
    > is having a very hard time at the moment, lots of economic doom and
    > gloom.
    >
    > I have to admit these last few days having major doubts about the
    > whole migration thing, As it's been 20 months wait, I started winding
    > things up, and stopped long term commitments, however as its taking
    > sooooooooooo long!!!!! just so tied of having life on hold, so decided
    > to carry on "full on" living for today, and forget this all this until
    > Visa comes in 2003, or 2004 whenever it is.
    > Then decide if I want to take my skills and capital to a country, who
    > can't even get the London DIMA to put enough resouses into finishing
    > off a couple of months worth of applications, without taking 6 months+
    > about it. Over 2 years wait is well out of order.
    >
    > Its the same old story all over the world, Damn, Accountants rule
    > everywhere, with there short term objectives balancing this years
    > books, I am refering to penny pinching in the processing in London -
    > sorry I am getting away from original point.
    >
    > Speaking as an Engineer
    >
    > Darren

Neil

UK house prices are unlikely to fall in my humble opinion. The Bank
of England have stated much the same too. However it is likely they
will level off for a while in the next year or two as house prices
have been rising above the general level of inflation. But dont
forget interest rates are ridiculously low which makes borrowing so
cheap.
Looking at it pragmatically, we have low levels of unemployment which
means lots of people earning £££s. Our society now expects both
partners to earn and so we do. This means most households can afford
property.
Why would it crash?
I wouldn't expect a price crash unless interest rates start to rise,
or the firemen get their payrise and all other public sector workers
jump on the bandwagon.

Its only my opinion and I am just a lowly electrician, we generaly
have practical outlooks. I do appreciate economics are very complex
but our economy is pretty stable and healthier than it has ever been
in my 38 year life span.
You may not make much profit on housing investments over the next
couple of years but I dont think you will lose either. The Bank of
England cant predict the future but I would expect them to have a
pretty good idea. Much better than the press who put "Property Crash
Imminent" as a headline just to get you to part with your cash. Now
thats good economics.

I intend to buy a new home in the UK soon and double my mortgage, and
I have my visa. I am investing in UK property just before I emigrate.
Why, you may ask, would I? Well I dont expect to purchase a home in
Australia until I have lived there a while and decided to stay. I
intend to rent the home I will live in in Australia until i decide
where and If I want to stay. In the meantime I will rent out my UK
home and have the rent pay my mortgage.
If it all goes pear shaped In Australia and I decide to return to live
in the UK, I wont find it too hard to get back on the property market.

I was talking to someone last week who emigrated to South Africa a few
years ago who sold his UK home before going. A few short years
later(2 or 3) he returned to the UK to find he had to virtually start
with a 100% mortgage because prices had climbed so much. He says he
regrets not renting it out.
Another person I know has lived in both South Africa and USA and he
says he rented out his house for long periods with great success. He
left his house in the hands of an estate agent who ran the whole thing
so he didnt have to worry about it.

If anyone can see a pitfall in my plan I would appreciate any input.

Don

1. Why crash? Confidence, ie decreasing. UK consumer stops borrowing to spend and recession is apparent. Unemployment. High wage demands. Inflation. Interest rates climb. Buy to letters sell to crystalize capital gains they have made over the past few years, market oversupply of housing stock. Fear of negative equity. Mortgages become painful, more forced sellers. Crash!

2. Pitfalls in renting out your UK home. The usual ones about voids, being very careful who you let it out to, possible mortgage rises, CGT liability after you've let it for more than 3 years, property possibly going through sharp valuation falls. And worry.

Otherwise, not a bad idea esp as a hedge against coming back to live in UK. If you've managed to give yourself good leverage (ie high percentage mortgage, high multiple of your salary) I can't think of a better way to expose yourself to UK property market gains for a small capital outlay. Once you're abroad, you'd find it much harder to get a mortgage for UK property but your lender is unlikely to demand this mortgage is repaid just because you're emigrating (I think you should make it easy on yourself by saying that you're going abroad to work for a year or two and expect to move back to the UK). Could even be worth remortgaging to maximise your leverage (also maximises your risk).

Cheers - Don

Rob

In Neil wrote:
    > UK house prices are unlikely to fall in my humble opinion. The Bank
    > of England have stated much the same too. However it is likely they
    > will level off for a while in the next year or two as house prices
    > have been rising above the general level of inflation. But dont
    > forget interest rates are ridiculously low which makes borrowing so
    > cheap.
    > Looking at it pragmatically, we have low levels of unemployment which
    > means lots of people earning £££s. Our society now expects both
    > partners to earn and so we do. This means most households can afford
    > property.
    > Why would it crash?

Your argument sounds a lot like most of what was being said about the
US and UK stock market bubble of the late 90s and early 2000.

There was talk of "a new paradigm", even the head of the US Fed
thought that things were different this time and that the repeated
trends of the past weren't going to kick in. He was worshipped
by those who wanted to believe it was true. Things have changed.

The Nationwide graph that Don pointed to is as clear an indicator
of what's going to happen as it is clear what has happened. Markets
tend to be cyclical and that graph is a perfect illustration that the
UK property market is no different.

Your faith in the Bank of England's abilities is (IMO) misguided.
Their job is to monitor inflation and tweak interest rates to try
to keep it on track. Their job is easy when things are going well,
however there are huge market forces in the wider UK and world
economies which the BofE cannot control. The US Fed do the same
thing in the US, but all they've been able to do in the past
couple of years is keep cutting interest rates in the hope that things
will improve - they haven't. The Fed is not in control, the markets are.

    > I intend to buy a new home in the UK soon and double my mortgage, and
    > I have my visa. I am investing in UK property just before I emigrate.

I wish you luck and hope you're taking advice on the subject. Personally
I'd keep my cash in the bank until that Nationwide graph has curved
down towards the bottom. It's the folks who invest during the darkest
hours who reap the rewards of the cyclical upturns.

If you look at the Nationwide graph you'll see that buying at the peak
means your investment can take 15+ years to recover to the level
you started at.

Now's the time to be buying shares - when everyone else refuses to
touch them with a barge pole. That means they are cheap. When the
property boom crashes, investors will switch back to the stock market
and that'll push the prices up.

Just for fun, look on the Nationwide graph to see where your friend
sold his house, was it at a peak or in a trough ?. Follow that blue
line. If he'd sold in 1989 and bought again in 1996 he'd be laughing.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/imag...tgraphQ302.gif

r.bartlett

well neil

that's a strange way of looking at things..

personaly i feel that you're buying right at the top of the market and then going to rent out when the bottom is falling out of that market too..
you must have a very strong constitution!!

\i agree in a rising economy buy to rent is a great way of keeping a hold here but what happens when you can't find anyone to rent -or at a much lower rate than first envisaged? your wages in oz will be a lot lower than the uk and you will need cash to rent out there .

from all the advice i've seen get out of the market now and rent till things are looking better (here and abroard)

whilst jobs are plentiful at the moment all bust ecomomies looked great when they were booming!!

btw the BOE said that house prices is 'unstainable and in for a correction' -what do you think that means??

cheers

richard

r.bartlett

make that unsustainable!!!

hollywood110

We are also in the South East,prices have been absolutely rocketing until about a month ago when things slowed down,We have sold our house but the buyers have not sold theirs. Our estate agents said the best time of the year to sell is January, so if I was You I would find an agent and get the process rolling as the estate agent says it could take 12 weeks to go through!
We have been waiting nearly 16 months now,I have never been so stressed out in my life.....
Then theres that awful question 'what if We dont get in'?
Sorry for rambling

Love Sharon xx