NZIS pass mark still high
Apr 14th 2004, 1:54 am
#1
BE Enthusiast
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr 2003
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 425
NZIS pass mark still high
This SMC is still a mess, today's pick was 180.
They can only offer residence to 700 since February until end of June, so they don't need to pick people who they can't offer residence to, they'll lapse a few more instead (and pocket the fees).
Since last pick 2 weeks ago, 280 new EOIs have been entered into the pool.
Multiply this 280 by 26 fortnights, we get 7,280 new applications coming in annually, albeit on short week. This is less than one third of target for Skilled Category. The pool is today only a fraction bigger than when it first opened 2 months ago.
This means that from over 2/3 of all the people in the pool, about 1800 applications will be lapsed on 3 June. Despite perceptions of a money grab by NZIS at it's unkindest or inept management of supply and demand at its best, this lapsing will diminish the size and quality of the pool in June (see later on in this memo).
(For this period, even though EOI is available online 24/7, some agents will close for holidays and some businesses too, so some people will not have had access to Internet. But the number is still shockingly low, proving either that people are holding off or that the market is....deader than it should be. I suspect a bit of both. )
About 3900 EOIs lodged in total since category opened in December, and 889 have been picked in eight weeks. That means NZIS will need to receive treble the present number of EOIs for nearly 4 months and then double the present inflow thereafter if we are to get anywhere near the quota for Skilled Migrants over next 12 month period.
We'll run out of applicants and workers in some areas. Already all the 800 fortunate geniuses with 180+ have been picked and only been replaced by 80 new EOIs over 2 months, so there's your evidence the mark is coming down by attrition.
And I can't see the total case numbers going up in the short to medium term, really. It's a marketing issue - lack of market confidence. By the time people will be comfortable applying under this new policy, a whole bunch of applicants will have lost interest and gone to Aussie or Canada where it's becoming much easier.
I believe we are heading for a famine of skilled applicants if the system is not made more attractive, starting from this point on.
Here's the hard numbers :
When NZIS start their new year in July, they'll be flogging a maximum of 800 applications per month. If we assume same inflow, and 200 picked per cycle until end of June and then we get the 400 per cycle, the size of the pool will rise to 3,450 EOIs in June before we lose 1800 from the pool through lapsing (maybe 500 will reapply, so leave net 1300 loss), then the pool will drop down to 1,000 people in November (all people on 130 points or so will get picked then).
There are still some large variables in these calculation such as actual numbers to be received, exact number to be lapsed and reapplications etc. My model shows that if we get a bit of an influx in the new year, say 500 per cycle and then dropping to 300 per cycle thereafter, we'll still be at a pool of half it's present size at the end of the year.
With NZIS' present marketing skills and communication ability, I'm having hard time seeing any more than 300 to 350 applications arriving per fortnight unless NZIS can crank things up themselves or they agree to work closer with good agents and do more marketing.
Of equal interest is the apparent fact that NZIS have gone through everyone and readjusted their points.
I mapped the chart from 02/04 over today's chart from 14/04, and ALL clusters are down by about 120 to 140 cases, with higher point clusters down by over 200 cases. So a hundred or so have vanished off the 100 point screen, and few hundred others have just been downgraded. Evidence: last pick there were 548 people noted as being one step away on 175. In the last two weeks they were not picked and it's too early to lapse, and now they only number 305....There are fewer EOIs missing at the lower levels, so some high scorers have been dropped down here.
Two fine points:
New cases being received have higher incidence of points claimed for "Skill Shortage and already working", so there is confidence showing here as more people have now come out of the woodwork.
EOIs who have not yet been picked but who have been claiming the same bonus points are now fewer, so this is where it appears the overambitious points claims have been founded and not in imaginary job offers as had I thought earlier.
This could mean that NZIS' documents about how they picked points have been encouraging workers in NZ to apply for residence This part of the communication effort appears to be working. Now we need more marketing to chase volume.
Good luck to the hardy few.
They can only offer residence to 700 since February until end of June, so they don't need to pick people who they can't offer residence to, they'll lapse a few more instead (and pocket the fees).
Since last pick 2 weeks ago, 280 new EOIs have been entered into the pool.
Multiply this 280 by 26 fortnights, we get 7,280 new applications coming in annually, albeit on short week. This is less than one third of target for Skilled Category. The pool is today only a fraction bigger than when it first opened 2 months ago.
This means that from over 2/3 of all the people in the pool, about 1800 applications will be lapsed on 3 June. Despite perceptions of a money grab by NZIS at it's unkindest or inept management of supply and demand at its best, this lapsing will diminish the size and quality of the pool in June (see later on in this memo).
(For this period, even though EOI is available online 24/7, some agents will close for holidays and some businesses too, so some people will not have had access to Internet. But the number is still shockingly low, proving either that people are holding off or that the market is....deader than it should be. I suspect a bit of both. )
About 3900 EOIs lodged in total since category opened in December, and 889 have been picked in eight weeks. That means NZIS will need to receive treble the present number of EOIs for nearly 4 months and then double the present inflow thereafter if we are to get anywhere near the quota for Skilled Migrants over next 12 month period.
We'll run out of applicants and workers in some areas. Already all the 800 fortunate geniuses with 180+ have been picked and only been replaced by 80 new EOIs over 2 months, so there's your evidence the mark is coming down by attrition.
And I can't see the total case numbers going up in the short to medium term, really. It's a marketing issue - lack of market confidence. By the time people will be comfortable applying under this new policy, a whole bunch of applicants will have lost interest and gone to Aussie or Canada where it's becoming much easier.
I believe we are heading for a famine of skilled applicants if the system is not made more attractive, starting from this point on.
Here's the hard numbers :
When NZIS start their new year in July, they'll be flogging a maximum of 800 applications per month. If we assume same inflow, and 200 picked per cycle until end of June and then we get the 400 per cycle, the size of the pool will rise to 3,450 EOIs in June before we lose 1800 from the pool through lapsing (maybe 500 will reapply, so leave net 1300 loss), then the pool will drop down to 1,000 people in November (all people on 130 points or so will get picked then).
There are still some large variables in these calculation such as actual numbers to be received, exact number to be lapsed and reapplications etc. My model shows that if we get a bit of an influx in the new year, say 500 per cycle and then dropping to 300 per cycle thereafter, we'll still be at a pool of half it's present size at the end of the year.
With NZIS' present marketing skills and communication ability, I'm having hard time seeing any more than 300 to 350 applications arriving per fortnight unless NZIS can crank things up themselves or they agree to work closer with good agents and do more marketing.
Of equal interest is the apparent fact that NZIS have gone through everyone and readjusted their points.
I mapped the chart from 02/04 over today's chart from 14/04, and ALL clusters are down by about 120 to 140 cases, with higher point clusters down by over 200 cases. So a hundred or so have vanished off the 100 point screen, and few hundred others have just been downgraded. Evidence: last pick there were 548 people noted as being one step away on 175. In the last two weeks they were not picked and it's too early to lapse, and now they only number 305....There are fewer EOIs missing at the lower levels, so some high scorers have been dropped down here.
Two fine points:
New cases being received have higher incidence of points claimed for "Skill Shortage and already working", so there is confidence showing here as more people have now come out of the woodwork.
EOIs who have not yet been picked but who have been claiming the same bonus points are now fewer, so this is where it appears the overambitious points claims have been founded and not in imaginary job offers as had I thought earlier.
This could mean that NZIS' documents about how they picked points have been encouraging workers in NZ to apply for residence This part of the communication effort appears to be working. Now we need more marketing to chase volume.
Good luck to the hardy few.
