Chris

Matbe I should stop watching them as they could be better by Nov when I'm going to
Aus, but it drives you mad watching the pound weaken from 3 to 1 last year, down to
2.6 today !

Are there any clever people who can predict the future rate on about 15 Nov !!

But seriously - does anyone have any good news about the dollar getting too strong
and the Aus govt will want it lower to help flow money into the country ?

Cheers Chris

MikenWendy

I can only give comparisons against the UD$. This is because all currency is measured that way.

As you will see from http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&v=dmax The AU$ has strengthened markedly of late.

The next point of resistance is 57.5 cents last reached in dec 2000. So, I would expect the AU$ to rise to this level before falling back to nearer the 50 cents mark. (I'll guess 50.5 cents.)

The reason I say this is that what tends to happen is the 6 o-clock news comes on and states that the AU$ is at a 2 year high against the UD$. At this point business' that import, and have to pay in US$, tend to buy US$ and the trend reverses.

The GBP has also rallied of late against the US$. However it has now started to fall back. You can find this rate on the same link above.

So, where will it be in Nov. Not got the foggiest idea. I would watch the rate against the US$ and if it gets anywhere near 50 cents then buy your currency then.

Well, there's my 2 cents worth. I have followed currency markets for many years but only in an amatuer way. So, read this at your own peril.

Mike.

britbird

Ho Chris
We are hoping that the predicted interest rate rise in the UK will prompt the pound to strengthen aginst the dollar!
All eyes down for the Bank of England to do as they say!
Britbird.

plucka

The Aussie Ecomomy is growing at the 2nd fastest rate in the world hence the strengthening $. I've read a lot of predictions that it will be 60c US by the end of the year so I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down to or even below 2.5 to the £. I can't see any reason why this wont happen, plus also add the fact that a predicted interest rate rise shortly will make it even stronger.

No good for us over here in the UK who intend to transfer money in the next 12 months. Luckily for me I transferred a fair bulk of my money last year when it was near peak and averaged around 2.82 which I'm very happy with. I think the best strategy is to probably transfer money at intervals of a period of time say a year rather than all at once, reduced the risk as you get more of an average rate.

dugongs

dont get hung up on the ozzie growth rate as it is a very small economy compared to the likes of UK.

the us dollar is dropping and looks like it will continue to do so in the short term. the pounds is losely linked to the us dollar plus blair has been making noises about the euro referendum which will weaken pound over the next 12 months as the inevitable draws closer.

ozzie is a cyclical comodity based currency and with an improving world economy it is now on the up turn. funds are flowing out of usa into asia and ozzie is benefiting. in my view i am sorry to say the best time to transfer funds from uk has now passed and the pound will not buy 3 ozzie dollars for a while.

agree that it is now more likely to see 2.50 in the next 3 months than 3. gold prices are also supporting ozzie.

longer term however the ozzie will continue to depreciate and do not be surprised in 5 years to see 4 ozzie dollars to the pound if for instance the referendum is a resounding no ( as it could well be ) and commodity prices return to trend and continue to fall due to oversupply and cheaper extraction.

lynn

You can always 'buy forward' if you think the dollar will continue to stenghthen. Me trying to be a smart arse bought a load forward at 2.72 last month for the date of our house completion, I then watched it drop and thought I could make a few quid by selling forward. I done this in the hope that the rate will rise again but at the moment it has not, so although I have made a few quid it will be no good whwen I need to convert it again. I have been advised by our dealers that if the stg base rate does rise it will strenthen the pound in the short term, so lets just hope

Lynn

MikenWendy

Wow, I do believe that I predicted further up that the "top" would be 57.5 and lo and behold. Now lets see if it gets back down towards the 50 cent mark as also predicted.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&v=dmax

Must have a go at this currency speculation lark.

Mike.

Amos

Hi,

As basic investment advice goes - you can protect yourself against the AU$ going too
strong by buying "call" options on it. This means that you buy the OPTION to buy an
AU$ at a future date at a preset price. It costs you a certain percentile of your
money but it might protect you from larger flactuations in the rate further down the
road, depends on how much you expect it to fluctuate and how much you are willing to
risk. There are several variations on this theme.

I've never got around to do that yet (the cost worth it only for large amounts of
money), but it might be worth a consideration.

Cheers,

--Amos

MikenWendy <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
    > Wow, I do believe that I predicted further up that the "top" would be
    > 57.5 and lo and behold. Now lets see if it gets back down towards the 50 cent mark
    > as also predicted.
    >
    > http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_AUDUSD&v=dmax
    >
    > Must have a go at this currency speculation lark.
    >
    > Mike.