fiftyeight

I know it's a weird question.
I'm trying to decide whether to go to Oz or Canada for IT degree.
In Canada I most prob. will have a route to PR after.
But I prefer Oz for the climate (yes it is that important to me), in Canada I am pretty much limited to living in some specific places in BC as far as places I'd actually want to live.
Still Canada PR still has value to me and I do like Canada as well.

Anyhow if only I had some way of estimating my chance of actually getting PR in the future if I go to Oz it will make my life a lot easier.

I am going to do a Bachelor of Computing or a Bachelor of Science with major in IT.
I am going to University of Tasmania which is a regional area.
Study is 3 years.
Who knows what will be in the end of 3 years.
Presumably I'll get a graduate temporary visa

Then, If the visa rules stay the same as they are now I can do:
489 visa Skilled - Nominated or Sponsored (Provisional) - TAS government sponsors you if you have occupation on SOL, if you have occupation in CSOL it will sponsor you as off-list nominee. If this works I will almost surely get PR with the 190 Visa, TAS government also sponsors for this if you work there 3 months.
189 visa - Skilled Independent (subclass 189) - If can't find work in TAS (IMO with 489 visa I can do any sort of work, doesn't have to be in IT) but do find IT work somewhere else I can apply for this after 1 year. According to my calculation I should get at least 70 points with the current system. If I manage to get IELTS 8 it'll be 80 but that can be pretty hard AFAIK. Maybe also possible to do professional year but not sure if that year counts as part of my graduate visa and then I won't have enough time left to find work and work for a year (assuming graduate visa is 2 years)

I know this is loads of info, but maybe some migration agent will see this and have enough experience to give me an estimate of my chances of getting PR.

Assume I am good at IT and will get good grades in my studies.

Thank you

old.sparkles

no-one can answer this - we don't have crystal balls (well most of us don't) nor mind reading abilities. As has been said previously, it used to be easier but now a lot of students are asked to declare their intentions of returning home after study, have 'no further stay conditions' etc. The CSOL changes all the time - 5 more occupations have been removed this year.

Go and do your university course and then see how the situation is nearer the end of your course - or go to Canada.

Really - how much time are you going to spend asking the same questions.

fiftyeight

Yeah sorry about having some similar questions.
My problem is that I have no figure in mind, people tell me that the odds are "not that good". But does that mean about 50% chance? or 10% chance? maybe something completely different?

I don't even have any estimate in mind.

old.sparkles

There is no way of knowing. If I said you have no change - 0% of getting PR where would you go?

If I said 10%, or 20%?

You have 3 years of study - you may fail your course fo all we know - or you may run out of money to pay for it and have to return home.

IF you get through those 3 years then we would need to know what the CSOL looks like - it might be the same in which case you are good - or Australia could be flooded with IT workers and IT workers were removed during your first year of study, or second year, or even third year - in which case you have 4 weeks to leave the country after your course finishes.

IF you are lucky enough to be able to stay after your course finishes - the graduate visa may have changed - you may have to work in your nominated occupation, you may have to work full time for 2 years, or 3 years to get PR.

I would assume that you have 0 chance of PR in either country and decide where you would rather study - Australia, Canada, your home country?

Dorothy

Yes. You have a 99% chance of getting PR after 3 years' study in Australia. However, someone has to be the 1%. Do you feel lucky?

fiftyeight

As for the studies, I am confident I will get good grades.

If I had 0-20% I'd probably not go to Oz.
If it was 50% I would go.

fiftyeight

Are you saying 99% as a joke or you really think that?

Dorothy

I think that you have got to stop asking and just decide whether you want to go to university in BC or Tasmania. That's what I think. If I told you that you had 0% chance of getting a permanent visa to Australia would you stop asking impossible to answer questions?

Honestly, nobody - and I do mean NOBODY - knows what your chances of getting a permanent visa will be in 3 years. If you are basing your choice of university entirely on whether you can stay in the country after you graduate then I think you are making a real mistake.

Can you tell me what the chances are of my being made redundant in the next 3 years? I am basing my life around what your guess is.

Bikergirl

Having spent time today reading the Australian Workforce Productivity Agency website, these guys make recommendations to the Commonwealth, I noticed that a couple of IT related occupations are flagged as possibly not being needed on SOL lists in the near future. I cant post the link but their homepage is www.awpa.gov.au.

This may help you decide the chances of what occupations are on the list - they have submisdions from industry stakeholders and also explanations why a occupation maybe recommended as on/off the SOL.

pumpkin blossom

Many students are now doing IT courses who would previously have done trade courses. It's only a matter of time before it is removed. I go for 90% chance it will be removed in the next five years.

fiftyeight

Thank u fo this response.
Is there any statistic on this?
How do you know more people are now doing IT courses?

Pollyana

Because most on student visas wanting PR at the end will realise there is no point in doing trades any more, PR routes for those are far more limited now. At present most IT skills will still get PR.....but for how much longer is the question.

old.sparkles

Do you think so Polly - the occupational ceiling for Electricians this year was one of the highest at 9000 - of which only 230 invites were issued. I dont think getting the visa is the issue for trades - it's getting licensed when you get here.

Some of the IT skills still have spaces available for invite this year - but the number of places available at the start were much lower, and some occupations reached the ceiling.

Pollyana

A lot of them are now gone - hair-dressing for instance, used to be a relatively easy way to PR - come here and study it, then stay on with sponsorship and get PR .
Is it possible to get a student visa to study to be an electrician and then stay on and get PR?, straight out if college? Most of the threads I see seem to indicate that some work experience is necessary to get through the skills assessment. Sponsorship doesn't seem as easy to come by for your trade these days.

old.sparkles

Okay I see what you mean now. I think you're right, you would need some experience.