Go Back  British Expats > Living & Moving Abroad > Canada > Immigration & Citizenship (Canada)
Reload this Page >

I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Old Apr 2nd 2005, 4:26 pm
  #16  
The ECA Godfather
 
MJ23's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2003
Location: Vancouver / Seattle
Posts: 839
MJ23 will become famous soon enough
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
It can't and won't happen. You can't just bring larger number of immigrants - economy won't be able to handle it, there will be no jobs for them and as a result our whole social umbrella will collapse too. The 1% of population as annual immigration target is probably the most we'll ever have.
I agree with you Andrew! Too much of anything can be bad sometimes, even Phd's

But I think there has to be a better way than raising the points system. For example, if it is determined that Canada Can only handle 250,000 new immigrants for a given year, then only 400,000 (or some other number based on statistical data) of potential applications should be accepted for consideration for that particular yeat. This way the number of applicants is controled, and people will be saved the agony of the wait! Obviously this solution will deny CIC the initial application fee and will cause many lawyers to go out of business, so this will never happen

Last edited by MJ23; Apr 2nd 2005 at 6:00 pm.
MJ23 is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 5:21 pm
  #17  
BE Enthusiast
 
Joined: Jul 2004
Location: London Ontario
Posts: 998
SANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really nice
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Just a thought to those who worry about this. We (personally) have been in the system over a year and even at the begginning we saw rumours about points increases, on this and other forums, about to happen. It has not thus far. If you consider that a speedy process of PR takes over a year we are only just seeing some applicants that applied under the reduced points system going for medicals, or are at Visa wait stage, perhaps a few even have PR...but not many (CHC London times). So to raise the system and discount a considerable number who are 'in waiting' would seem odd considering that the quotas for 2003-2004 were only just met. There has been talk about changing the system for some time which would suggest the status quo for now as to go through two upheavals will achieve little short term.

By lowering the points (which is only part of the process as you can get PR even if you fail to achieve the points threshold at the discretion of the CIC) the political and immigration officials would know that they would have an influx of applications and that waiting times would increase. This has had an effect of extending waiting times and in the past these PR wait periods could be several years so anything near a year or so is a bonus.

From CIC's perspective the numbers in the waiting line to a degree are irrelevant as they will work through the list one by one by one.... in an ordely(ish) fashion. The reason for the AOR date is to inform the applicant that CIC etc 'think' there is sufficient information to go ahead and process in due course.

Therefore even though MR Miller has proved himself correct many times about the points and restrospectivity there is from the laymans terms little to be gained at this moment in raising the threshhold as we are not yet at the 3 year wait line at CHC. The CHC in London are I believe quoting 20-24 months...and the CHC is not the quickest or slowest of offices to apply through.

It won't happen until it happens and I have given up worrying as after all if you pass AOR and then don't pass due to points level being raised it is not only the applicant who loses - Canada also loses the possibility of having a healthy productive tax paying worker.

Bearing in mind what an AOR is I wouldn't bet the applicant(s) has already had a pass put on the file just pending medicals and security.

Last edited by SANDRAPAUL; Apr 2nd 2005 at 5:28 pm.
SANDRAPAUL is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 6:27 pm
  #18  
 
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 8,984
Andrew Miller is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Until about late summer of last year we were receiving visas for our clients from CHC London in 9 to 12 months from application. Now London takes about twice that long. I remember years when London was completing applications in under 6 months.

But London is still quite fast (even with 2 years) compared to other visa posts. Since lowering pass mark Damascus increased processing time from under 4 years to over 5 (and remember that reported processing times only show completed cases, thus within next few years we'll see increase in Damascus to probably 7 - 9 years), same with Beijing (in 2003 reported 3 years, now 4), New Delhi (from 3 years to 4+ years), Manila (from 3 to almost 5 years), Islamabad (3->4+), even Hong Kong (3->5) and Singapore (from well under 2 years to 3 years now). Remember that all those visa posts reporting currently processing times of 3 years or more are still working on pre-IRPA cases.

And now add to the mill over 100,000 cases frozen for almost 2 years by class action lawsuit - those cases will be re-entering processing any day now and will take substantial bite from quotas for next 4 years.


Annual targets in all visa posts (including London) are met by late September to mid November each year, for past several years already. Where did you get info that "quotas for 2003-2004 were only just met" from???


Originally Posted by SANDRAPAUL
Just a thought to those who worry about this. We (personally) have been in the system over a year and even at the begginning we saw rumours about points increases, on this and other forums, about to happen. It has not thus far. If you consider that a speedy process of PR takes over a year we are only just seeing some applicants that applied under the reduced points system going for medicals, or are at Visa wait stage, perhaps a few even have PR...but not many (CHC London times). So to raise the system and discount a considerable number who are 'in waiting' would seem odd considering that the quotas for 2003-2004 were only just met. There has been talk about changing the system for some time which would suggest the status quo for now as to go through two upheavals will achieve little short term.

By lowering the points (which is only part of the process as you can get PR even if you fail to achieve the points threshold at the discretion of the CIC) the political and immigration officials would know that they would have an influx of applications and that waiting times would increase. This has had an effect of extending waiting times and in the past these PR wait periods could be several years so anything near a year or so is a bonus.

From CIC's perspective the numbers in the waiting line to a degree are irrelevant as they will work through the list one by one by one.... in an ordely(ish) fashion. The reason for the AOR date is to inform the applicant that CIC etc 'think' there is sufficient information to go ahead and process in due course.

Therefore even though MR Miller has proved himself correct many times about the points and restrospectivity there is from the laymans terms little to be gained at this moment in raising the threshhold as we are not yet at the 3 year wait line at CHC. The CHC in London are I believe quoting 20-24 months...and the CHC is not the quickest or slowest of offices to apply through.

It won't happen until it happens and I have given up worrying as after all if you pass AOR and then don't pass due to points level being raised it is not only the applicant who loses - Canada also loses the possibility of having a healthy productive tax paying worker.

Bearing in mind what an AOR is I wouldn't bet the applicant(s) has already had a pass put on the file just pending medicals and security.
Andrew Miller is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 6:35 pm
  #19  
Forum Regular
 
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Hampshire then Edmonton then Ponoka, then Calgary!
Posts: 141
bobhope is on a distinguished road
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

The provisional figures for 2004 are 235,808 thats from this months Canada News. But like I said its only provisional but the confirmed figure is out later this month.....apparently!
bobhope is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 7:03 pm
  #20  
 
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 4,483
Jim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond reputeJim Humphries has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
It can't and won't happen. You can't just bring larger number of immigrants - economy won't be able to handle it, there will be no jobs for them and as a result our whole social umbrella will collapse too. The 1% of population as annual immigration target is probably the most we'll ever have.
Andrew is correct. But I feel the CIC is alos to blame for seeking to solve its problems in a shortsighted way that backfired. The government sets its annual targets in terms of total immigration and by category types. These limits are used by the Treasury Board to set resource levels and there is absolutely no possibility of increasing resources beyond those levels because they meet requirements. Setting the pass mark is another matter and shows that even now the new IRPA does not do what the government in fact wants. This is because, if it were set much higher, many workers whose skills are needed would not be selected. The extreme emphasis on years and level of education plus very high language skills makes that a certainty. The CIC took the road of convenience for their operations and made it possible for them to refuse cases not finally decided when they raise the pass mark. A sort of bench clearing procrustean solution that, while it will probably not be used often, nevertheless places their sincerity and reliability in question.
Jim Humphries is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 7:15 pm
  #21  
BE Enthusiast
 
Joined: Jul 2004
Location: London Ontario
Posts: 998
SANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really niceSANDRAPAUL is just really nice
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
Annual targets in all visa posts (including London) are met by late September to mid November each year, for past several years already. Where did you get info that "quotas for 2003-2004 were only just met" from???
The CIC's website lists that during 2001 they exceeded the prediction of 210,00-235,000 permanent residents by 25,000 or thereabouts. Each year since the targets have had it seems a ceiling of 235,000-245,000 and at 221,000 for 2003 and slightly above this for 2004 is this not a reflection of only just achieving or not achieving stated levels. This may be due perhaps that the officials have a finite number they can process in any one year and not that there are only the required number applying - so it depends on ones perspective of achieving targets I guess. But if the numbers applying were out of control would it not be more prudent to close the doors for new applicants for a while rather than alter the system throwing huge numbers of pending cases out due to points increasing or is that just plain stupid?

Last edited by SANDRAPAUL; Apr 2nd 2005 at 7:17 pm.
SANDRAPAUL is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 7:31 pm
  #22  
BE Forum Addict
 
Calgal's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: The Republic of Bacon
Posts: 3,192
Calgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond reputeCalgal has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Were they previously reduced, then? I'm pretty sure when we came in it was 70 points required?!
Calgal is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 7:43 pm
  #23  
Forum Regular
 
allie2's Avatar
 
Joined: Jan 2005
Location: Kitsilano, Vancouver
Posts: 214
allie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud ofallie2 has much to be proud of
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Hi,

CHC London just processed my application in 3 months...

Allie
allie2 is offline  
Old Apr 2nd 2005, 11:16 pm
  #24  
little snowy owl
 
Alberta_Rose's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 6,921
Alberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond reputeAlberta_Rose has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Originally Posted by Calgal
Were they previously reduced, then? I'm pretty sure when we came in it was 70 points required?!
The points for skilled workers were reduced from 75 to 67 in September 2003


Originally Posted by allie2

CHC London just processed my application in 3 months...

Allie
__________________
Applied for family class sponsorship (BC): 15 Nov 2003
Sponsorship agreed: 5 Jul 2004
Application submitted to London: 11 Dec 2004
AOR Date: 16 Dec 2004
Medical Requested: 06 Feb 2005
Medical Done: 23 Feb 2005
Medical Sent: 23 Feb 2005
Passport Request Received: 12 Mar 2005
Passport sent via Special Delivery: 17 Mar 2005
Passport received: 01 Apr 2005
(E-status has not changed from In Process!!!)
Well congratulations!, but you applied under family sponsorship class, so your timeline is not really relevent in this context.
Alberta_Rose is offline  
Old Apr 3rd 2005, 3:38 am
  #25  
JAJ
Retired
 
JAJ's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 34,649
JAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
Until about late summer of last year we were receiving visas for our clients from CHC London in 9 to 12 months from application. Now London takes about twice that long. I remember years when London was completing applications in under 6 months.

But London is still quite fast (even with 2 years) compared to other visa posts.
So where will this all end, Andrew, if CIC have set the bar too low and have a constantly higher number of applications meeting requirements compared to visas available?

Isn't this what IRPA was meant to prevent?

Jeremy
JAJ is offline  
Old Apr 3rd 2005, 3:38 am
  #26  
Forum Regular
 
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 69
samon is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Hi all,
I'm new to the forum, but after reading all the discussions, what was the final outcome? Is it increasing or not? Where did this rumour mill start from?
I have been hearing of this right from the day it was reduced ie Sept 2003.
This point system has become a topic of debate, how about a perfect person with 100 out of 100, will keep all happy.
That can be one easily, try any combination or permutation possible, who's there to ask? After all we are mute spectators.
Don't try to make poor CIC a victim of ridicule, let it set it's house in order first, if the time frames has increased, let it, it's the applicants who are gonna do all the waiting, future would be applicants would than think twice before applying...4 or 5 or 6 years is their headache, if they can wait or not.
I know many who have withdrawn, just at the thought of long waits.
Once it is streamlined the time frames will settle down to some fixed level.
This is still a transitional period, if changes occur now it means someone is just not using the grey matter properly and messing around so that the system goes bang.
samon is offline  
Old Apr 3rd 2005, 4:07 am
  #27  
 
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 8,984
Andrew Miller is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

They will increase pass mark sooner or later. Our votes and financial contributions hungry politicians don't care about immigration backlog yet - but they probably will as soon as the same groups who pushed them to lower pass mark will start complaining about processing times and if other lobbyists will push harder too. What groups we are talking about? Mostly lobbyists representing voters from two largest ethnic groups and some immigration practitioners from same ethnic groups who make big money selling their services in two countries being the largest source of immigration to Canada. Unfortunately those practitioners are only interested in keeping the pool of potential clients as large as possible and low pass mark does it for them. They have no interest in shorter processing times if it will reduce the market size for them.

Originally Posted by JAJ
So where will this all end, Andrew, if CIC have set the bar too low and have a constantly higher number of applications meeting requirements compared to visas available?

Isn't this what IRPA was meant to prevent?

Jeremy
Andrew Miller is offline  
Old Apr 3rd 2005, 4:19 am
  #28  
JAJ
Retired
 
JAJ's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 34,649
JAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond reputeJAJ has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
They will increase pass mark sooner or later. Our votes and financial contributions hungry politicians don't care about immigration backlog yet - but they probably will as soon as the same groups who pushed them to lower pass mark will start complaining about processing times and if other lobbyists will push harder too. What groups we are talking about? Mostly lobbyists representing voters from two largest ethnic groups and some immigration practitioners from same ethnic groups who make big money selling their services in two countries being the largest source of immigration to Canada. Unfortunately those practitioners are only interested in keeping the pool of potential clients as large as possible and low pass mark does it for them. They have no interest in shorter processing times if it will reduce the market size for them.
From what you say, if there were to be a change of federal government (the current government is in a minority situation in parliament) a new Minister might take action very quickly.


Jeremy
JAJ is offline  
Old Apr 3rd 2005, 4:29 am
  #29  
 
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 8,984
Andrew Miller is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Yes, it may happen. Majority of votes and contributions for Liberal party in federal elections come from the same two ethnic groups while other parties have their base more diverse.

Originally Posted by JAJ
From what you say, if there were to be a change of federal government (the current government is in a minority situation in parliament) a new Minister might take action very quickly.


Jeremy

Last edited by Andrew Miller; Apr 3rd 2005 at 5:34 am.
Andrew Miller is offline  
Old Apr 3rd 2005, 5:10 am
  #30  
Forum Regular
 
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 127
ChicagoJer is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: I am Scared (change in points) - Experts advice welcome

Just my "two cents" again- I think that the "backlog" of cases affected by the class-action lawsuit won't affect individuals on this forum who've already received a positive selection decision.

I certainly don't have the expertise of PMM, Jim, and Andrew, but my guess is that any increase in pass mark wouldn't exceed 70-73 points and it would probably won't happen until later this year (if it happens at all).
ChicagoJer is offline  

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Your Privacy Choices -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.