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Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

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Old Nov 8th 2006, 3:22 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Originally Posted by adele
Get more points...
Unfortunately even if you assess yourself as having 67 points or more that still doesn't guarantee PR Visa.
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Old Nov 8th 2006, 3:23 pm
  #17  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Originally Posted by deanjp32
That could leave a lot of people potentially on thin ice if this is the case and points do go up at any point during the process. What can be done to lessen the risk?
Remember that the point target is the bare minimum you should have and they can decline anyone (even if they got maximum points possible). The points system is a guideline for the assessors if you fail to reach the target score they can not accept you - if you get the bare minimum it is still not a guarantee for you to be accepted into the country.

Look at it in this sense you need to sell yourself to Canada it's not as simple as i meet the pass mark.
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Old Nov 8th 2006, 3:26 pm
  #18  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Originally Posted by deanjp32
Have checked and yes he is
Well, we have been waiting for 25 months since our AOR for something to happen (it hasn't yet) and from the CIC's mouth (as it were) you can be rejected for lack of points right up to the end of your processing time, so if they decide to stem the tide of immigrants and put up the points again it's in the lap of the gods.... I've been on this forum for a long time and believe me ANYTHING can happen, and sometimes it does.

Consultants know as much and as little as the rest of us...and remember they want your money... We did it without them, saved a bundle.
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Old Nov 8th 2006, 3:48 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Originally Posted by RodseyUK
Unfortunately even if you assess yourself as having 67 points or more that still doesn't guarantee PR Visa.
We were assessed by the company we are using that we meet the requirements however with a 42 month wait from AOR August 06 i guess anything will happen. A a bit annoyed with them now as we were told that we needed to get our app in and then it would not matter if points went up as we submitted at 67 points

As anyone had any experience of people that have used agencies who do immigration as well as job search and is the job search within those agencies any good?
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Old Nov 8th 2006, 5:34 pm
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

It is a matter that has been discussed here countless number of times and every immigration consultant should also know the law. They should know that floating pass mark has been introduced in law since 2002 as a program management tool - to be reduced or increased as needed and to have every such adjustment applied retroactively, just as it happened in Sep 2003 when (for pure political reasons) previous government reduced pass mark from quite fair 75 points level to current 67 points mark and it was applied to all cases still pending. That reduction caused increase in backlog from about 400,000 to about 1.5 million level now and pushed the immigration program completely beyond any manageability.

Current law has already been challenged in courts and so far all court's decisions upheld all provisions of IRPA and it's Regulations for all cases submitted after 2001.

All my clients who have less than 75 points are always advised by me that they need to do everything possible to get more points prior to assessment of their cases.

More - there is another section of Regulations that should scare you more than floating pass mark. It is R76(3) (Substitute Evaluation) here:

http://www.canlii.org/ca/regu/sor2002-227/sec76.html

The best way to overcome risk of floating pass mark and R76(3) is an arranged employment and all applicants who want to succeed should arrange it.

Remember that number of visas available annually in SW class is about 130K to 145K - with statistical 2.2 people per application all it takes is 66,000 applications to use annual quota of visas.

Another number to remember is 110,000+ work permits issued every year. If we assume that just only 60% of work permit holders will apply for PR that means entire annual visa quota may be taken by work permit holders.

So, everybody who applied or plans to apply as SW without arranged employment should rethink her or his strategy.




Originally Posted by deanjp32
That could leave a lot of people potentially on thin ice if this is the case and points do go up at any point during the process. What can be done to lessen the risk?
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Old Nov 9th 2006, 3:45 am
  #21  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Hi, there!

We're not ganging up on you but listen to what the others are saying (esp. Andrew). There is no guarantee unlesss you get your PPR (or in some cases, after landing) because there are some cases that even "landing" might pose a problem or denial due to failure to meet some requirements (i.e. sufficient funds, etc.). So, unless you have already landed, there is no guarantee but to keep your fingers crossed.

Don't get me wrong but I think your consultant just want your money. They're misleading you for giving information that will just keep your hopes up for nothing. If you want an honest and direct answer, check the previous posts and you will learn even more than what your consultant is saying to you. I know it's hard to accept hard facts or the truth and people only want to hear what's beneficial to them. But in your case, open your eyes because your consultant is concealing some important information that you will be sorry later on. Truth is, they don't care whether or not your application will be approved for as long as you can pay their fees. If I were you, I'll change my consultant and if you are willing and able to pay, choose other more credible and honest consultant like Andrew.

Again, check all previous posts and you will find answers (more than what your consultant can provide you).


Originally Posted by deanjp32
We were assessed by the company we are using that we meet the requirements however with a 42 month wait from AOR August 06 i guess anything will happen. A a bit annoyed with them now as we were told that we needed to get our app in and then it would not matter if points went up as we submitted at 67 points

As anyone had any experience of people that have used agencies who do immigration as well as job search and is the job search within those agencies any good?
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 12:57 am
  #22  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Andrew

Something is missing here. US and Mexico are number 1&2 in the list for foreign workersflow to US.

Processing times for SW application is relatively short when applied from Mexico or US. These foreign workers can apply for SW and be in Canada but that does not seem to be happening. Mexico is not even among top 10 SW supplier countries even though it takes 13 months for 30% of SW applications to be processed and 19 months for 80% to be processed .

I assume these work permit holders are not interested in Canadain Citizenship.

or

They do not pass CIC selection criteria for SW.

what makes you assume , 60% of these work permit holders will apply for PR.



Originally Posted by Andrew Miller

Another number to remember is 110,000+ work permits issued every year. If we assume that just only 60% of work permit holders will apply for PR that means entire annual visa quota may be taken by work permit holders.

.
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 2:26 am
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Yes, US is the number 1 source of foreign workers with just under 40,000 permits per year and Mexico second with about 15,000 permits per year. And many Americans apply for PR status as they are mostly in skills level B, C and A (in order of number of permits per skill level). Not all Americans apply for PR, but still about 4,000 to 5,000 per year. This is why I said "If we assume that just only 60% of work permit holders will apply for PR" as I have subtracted from 110,000 to 117,000 permits issued per year 40% for Americans and Mexicans (who in 95% are skills level D).

Remember that the third source country of work permit holders is Philippines (live-in caregivers) and all of them apply for PR.

PR processing times in US and Mexico have nothing to do with number of work permit holders who decide to apply for PR. As far as my American clients - about 80% came here on work permits as first step to PR and only 20% are interested only in work permit.


Originally Posted by Ashok
Andrew

Something is missing here. US and Mexico are number 1&2 in the list for foreign workersflow to US.

Processing times for SW application is relatively short when applied from Mexico or US. These foreign workers can apply for SW and be in Canada but that does not seem to be happening. Mexico is not even among top 10 SW supplier countries even though it takes 13 months for 30% of SW applications to be processed and 19 months for 80% to be processed .

I assume these work permit holders are not interested in Canadain Citizenship.

or

They do not pass CIC selection criteria for SW.

what makes you assume , 60% of these work permit holders will apply for PR.
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 6:29 am
  #24  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Thanks for the explanation. I will keep watching with this context.

In fact Philippines situation is funny.
Recently I watched BBC reporting that Phillipino doctors are leaving Philippines to be a live in care giver in US / Canada as they get better salary!
Causing huge shortage of Doctors in home country!






Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
Yes, US is the number 1 source of foreign workers with just under 40,000 permits per year and Mexico second with about 15,000 permits per year. And many Americans apply for PR status as they are mostly in skills level B, C and A (in order of number of permits per skill level). Not all Americans apply for PR, but still about 4,000 to 5,000 per year. This is why I said "If we assume that just only 60% of work permit holders will apply for PR" as I have subtracted from 110,000 to 117,000 permits issued per year 40% for Americans and Mexicans (who in 95% are skills level D).

Remember that the third source country of work permit holders is Philippines (live-in caregivers) and all of them apply for PR.

PR processing times in US and Mexico have nothing to do with number of work permit holders who decide to apply for PR. As far as my American clients - about 80% came here on work permits as first step to PR and only 20% are interested only in work permit.
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 9:44 am
  #25  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

where from you got a figure of 40,000 work permits for US and 15,000 for Mexico.

I am seeing very differrent picture>> latest Monitor states following for Year 2005.

"The U.S. remained the leading source country, with 16,332 foreign workers, followed by Mexico, with 12,610. The flow of foreign workers from France increased by 16% (roughly 1,000 workers) and became the third-ranked source country for 2005. The United Kingdom (third-ranked source country in 2004) sent four percent fewer foreign workers to Canada in 2005 and slipped to the fourth highest source of foreign workers. "

Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
Yes, US is the number 1 source of foreign workers with just under 40,000 permits per year and Mexico second with about 15,000 permits per year. And many Americans apply for PR status as they are mostly in skills level B, C and A (in order of number of permits per skill level). Not all Americans apply for PR, but still about 4,000 to 5,000 per year. This is why I said "If we assume that just only 60% of work permit holders will apply for PR" as I have subtracted from 110,000 to 117,000 permits issued per year 40% for Americans and Mexicans (who in 95% are skills level D).

Remember that the third source country of work permit holders is Philippines (live-in caregivers) and all of them apply for PR.

PR processing times in US and Mexico have nothing to do with number of work permit holders who decide to apply for PR. As far as my American clients - about 80% came here on work permits as first step to PR and only 20% are interested only in work permit.
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 10:07 am
  #26  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

This is from the official CIC website

Under this process, you submit only a basic application form and fee. This guarantees your place in the processing queue, meaning that the regulations in effect on that date will apply to your application.
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 11:23 am
  #27  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

what if Regulations on the day of application mean that you have to meet the point criteria from the day you apply till the day you get a call for PPR.


Originally Posted by Hipster Contrarian
This is from the official CIC website
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 3:40 pm
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Many misinterpret the single sentence:

"This guarantees your place in the processing queue, meaning that the regulations in effect on that date will apply to your application."

found on the CIC page here:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/applic...led-simple.html

as a guarantee that application submitted today will be assessed few years later under the criteria that were in place at the time of submission.

It is a wrong interpretation. This sentence (and it is just a non-binding statement, it is not included in IRPA or Regulations anyway) only says that applications will be assessed under Regulations (not the criteria) in effect at the time of application.

And current Regulations clearly state that applicant must meet all criteria that are in place not only at the time of application but also that will be in place at the time of visa to be issued:

http://www.canlii.org/ca/regu/sor2002-227/sec77.html

Thus applications submitted today will be assessed against the pass mark in place at the time of assessment, by simply applying R77 of Regulations that were in place of time of application.

CIC can do whatever they want with the pass mark as stated in R76(2):

http://www.canlii.org/ca/regu/sor2002-227/sec76.html

Remember that pass mark is a program management tool intended to control number of applications. Any change in pass mark is to be applied to not only new applications but also to all still in process, just as it happened in Sep 2003.




Originally Posted by Hipster Contrarian
This is from the official CIC website
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 3:44 pm
  #29  
 
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Sorry, I was following numbers from official 1999-2002 stats and I should have checked The Monitor.

The 2005 stats from Monitor puts Americans and Mexicans at less than 30% of total, thus making my argument even stronger

Originally Posted by Ashok
where from you got a figure of 40,000 work permits for US and 15,000 for Mexico.

I am seeing very differrent picture>> latest Monitor states following for Year 2005.

"The U.S. remained the leading source country, with 16,332 foreign workers, followed by Mexico, with 12,610. The flow of foreign workers from France increased by 16% (roughly 1,000 workers) and became the third-ranked source country for 2005. The United Kingdom (third-ranked source country in 2004) sent four percent fewer foreign workers to Canada in 2005 and slipped to the fourth highest source of foreign workers. "
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Old Nov 10th 2006, 4:46 pm
  #30  
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Default Re: Am I safe after receiving the File Number from CHC

Should we look into whole thing together with Number of skilled workers leaving Canada for US, every year. This figure looked astounding when I visited

http://www.migrationinformation.org/....cfm?ID=244#12

If this is true than Canada is a good source for Grooming skilled workers for US.



Originally Posted by Andrew Miller
Sorry, I was following numbers from official 1999-2002 stats and I should have checked The Monitor.

The 2005 stats from Monitor puts Americans and Mexicans at less than 30% of total, thus making my argument even stronger
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