FenTiger

Surely, these open markets selling live and dead animals have been running for centuries so viruses back in the day could have wiped out a whole country.
Today's travellers and exporters don't help sealing in a virus on a plane or cargo container until it reaches it destination and then is unleashed on an unsuspecting population soon to be impacted by deaths or serious illness.
Is Covid-19 a virus or is it a plague, much like the plagues which had travelled via trade routes, from Asia through Europe and causing the Black Death and the Great Plague. I'm coming round to agreeing covid-19 started in China and other countries which run open markets selling both live and dead animals, disposing of waste unhygienically (spelling?).

davidchannon

They did wipe out huge numbers: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

These things actually start very frequently - the spread from Animal to Human. However for it to become a local or global problem then:
- The specific mutation that humans can catch needs to be in that spread
- The illness in humans needs to be easily spread and long lived
- The illness needs to be severe enough to significantly infect the host BUT mild enough to allow the human to spread it. ( e.g. a virus that kills the host in hours is easier to contain and burns itself out )
- All the right conditions ( and a bit of (bad)) luck need to be right
- One example of "luck" is the how prepared society is and how it impacts "normal life" - covid-19 kinda hit a sweet spot of something we were not prepared for in terms of reducing human contact, face masks etc etc. Where if another virus arrives that is say can only be transferred through sexual contact we are better prepared. If a new airborne virus appears in a few years time we would be better prepared for it due to the experience of covid-19.

So the combinations of situations needed to allow this to happen are pretty rare - even if each situation itself happens all the time.
However as populations continue to grow the chance of this happening is always increasing. Remember scientists and others have been warning about such pandemics for years.

Covif-19 is a virus.
The word plague has 2 meanings:
- THE plague is an infectious disease caused by Yersinia pestis bacteria - e.g. found in rats spread by flea bites.
- A plague normal refers to the bible type thing - e.g. a plague of locusts. Is used by people in normal day life ( e.g. a plague of school children entered the shop )

THE plague because it is a bacteria is treated by Antibiotics ( e.g. penicillin ) - so it is very treatable.

Bacteria are basically very tiny living creatures, when they get in the wrong place and grow they do bad things.
Viruses are not living things - they grow and reproduce in host cells.

There are even viruses that infect bacteria.

Viruses are responsible for a lot of un-treatable things - from the common cold to AIDS and Covid-19.

Antibiotics work by attacking the bacteria directly - those cells die, all is good.
With viruses they live in OUR cells - so if you try and kill the virus you kill the host - which is obviously not good.

Our immune systems are able to respond to viruses by producing white blood cells "that match the virus". Think of it as a "lock and key". When the virus appears in the body if the body has seen it before then it will produce loads and loads of white blood cells that match the virus - each one attaches to one virus - stopping that virus cell reproducing.

If our bodies have never seen a specific virus before then we have no matching white blood cells, so the body has to try and create some. Sometimes it does, sometimes it does not. However it is "behind" in the war and playing catch-up as the virus is already reproducing, the immune system must start from scratch, catch-up and then overtake the number of cells.

The way that vaccines work is to put into the body a dummy "key" that matches the virus, but is not the actual virus, this causes our bodies to create white blood cells that match and destroy the invaders. When that real virus turns up the body has a few white blood cells ready to go - but can create millions more very quickly, and stop the virus before it reproduces to many times.

There is an added complication with viruses in that they reproduce, which means mutations - which then means its a new variation of a virus, often that people are not immune to.
Some viruses have high mutation rates, some lower.

So the vaccines we get as children ( measles, mumps etc ) are viruses that don't change much - so one vaccine lasts for life.
However things like "flu" mutate much faster - so the "flu jab" available each year is actually slightly different to last year. Which is why we always have a flu-season.




It is not really a matter of dispute where it has come from, it has been universally agreed by everyone, including the chinese. The only people who don't agree are nutjobs who think it was made in a lab or by Bill Gates etc.

As a world population we can always improve our hygiene practices - but we will never eradicate the risk totally, an we are discovering slowly that "things" exist in places we never imagined possible, things living in deep sea vents at very hot temperatures - to Fungi that grow inside Chernobyl reactor and seem to kinda eat radiation.

The world is a weird, wonderful and scary place.

Peter_in_Hungary

Yes - but the population was much smaller and people travelled less so any new virus was much more contained. Some of course did have devastating effects (think black death) but when it took a couple of days to do 50 miles if you had a horse (and most people didn't) problems were very much contained and people would had got ill and / or died before they reached their destination. Of course ships all had to be quarantined when they came in to port from foreign lands. They flew the yellow Q flag requesting clearance and were inspected before being allowed to off load. When was the last time a ship was quarantined - Oh yes they quarantined a couple of cruse ships over Covid 19!

Peter_in_Hungary

Err - They (we?) didn't learn much from the SARS but then there is the view that because SARS didn't hit the western countries it was mostly ignored in terms of preparing for the next one. Hong Kong did learn from SARS which is how they manages to escape most of the first wave despite being next to the outbreak source. (social distancing and masks for everyone)

Jack_Russells4ever

So, I want to ask everyone to consider this?

Modernas vaccine being tested by 1 of the first 3 test recipients had a bad reaction to the vaccine. Another firm AstraZeneca in stage 3 trials withdrew their vaccine because of one of the recipients of their vaccine suffered from a serious side effects. Some of these pharmaceutical companies are planning to release these vaccines without full proper testing being done. Their have been reports the virus has made numerous mutations since being discovered and that makes me doubt a truly effective vaccine will ever be found that covers all the different strains out in the world.

https://recombinomics.co/topic/14036...covid-vaccine/

Many reports in the news that countries are planning to compel mandatory vaccination. That is insanity to legally compel the public to trust an unproven treatment. In many nations Big Pharma has full financial and legal immunity for people suffering from vaccination health issues I for one will never voluntarily roll up my sleeve for an vaccine that was rushed to market without proof of its safety and efficacy.

I am not denying this virus can cause problems for some people especially the elderly and those with serious health issues but the rush to vaccinate ALL people is crazy.

How many of you on this site will be rolling up your sleeves for a vaccine that is being rushed to market?

davidchannon

And your source for that statement is?
They won't rush anything out - it is not the pharmaceutical companies saying stuff will be ready by X, but politicians.

Mutations is generally often a good thing. Viruses have a tendency to mutate in ways which makes them less harmful to humans, e.g. it slowly becomes another minor cold/flu thing.
Then of course mutate to something WORSE - but actually they tend not to.

Plus once a vaccine is found, then the cures for the mutations are just mutations of the vaccines.

Unfortunately the science and maths of vaccination means that they have to be compelled in some form, legally or through popular take up.

Vaccinations are only effective in a community when they have a significant uptake.
Lack of uptake causes 2 things:
- If there is very low take up then the R number is barely reduced, so whilst the people who have had it don't get it - there are still enough people to spread it around
- Medium uptake means that the virus still runs around - the more it runs around - the more it mutates - the less the developed vaccine works and a new one is needed

Vaccines won't be rushed to market any faster than they have to be - hence the masks, social distancing etc - the longer those are kept up the more time for a vaccine to be developed.

The reason that the virus CAN cause problems for the elderly and sick is because it spreads between people who it is not a problem for.
You basically have to decide:
- Everyone isolates - and everyone gets protected
- Elderly/Sick isolate from everyone who is not isolating ( family, friends, healthcare workers etc ) - but virus widespread with everyone else
- You get a vaccine out and vaccinate with enough uptake to near eradicate the disease meaning no one has to isolate

Even if you are of the opinion that vaccines are a risk for you personally ( which i don't agree will happen anyway ) - the question a vaccine poses is not: "Do you want to save yourself?" it is "Are you prepared to save your family/city/country/world?" as that is what is actually going on.

I don't want to take a risk with my own life without need BUT I also don't want to live in a world where every month someone I know has to go to a funeral OR in a world where isolation for anyone is the "normal".
In my opinion vaccines, and these new ones as well, pose minuscule risk that is far outweighed by the overall value to society of contributing to a healthy happy world.

scrubbedexpat142

Not me!

Pretty annoyed today - entry phone rings, woman from the National Statistical Office chasing people up to fill in a survey about internet / mobile phone use! Opened the outer gate and went down in the elevator to meet her in our hallway. Got out of the elevator to find her having a furious argument with the block housekeeper, not sure what about, not sure how the woman got in the inner door either (she should have pressed the entry button again). Anyway, to get to the point, this woman aged (50+) is making house calls on behalf of a Government Dept. - without wearing a mask! She wanted to call again tomorrow night, I have declined but offered to fill in her survey electronically.

My point is that how can the youngsters be expected to toe the line when "mature" civil servants can't be bothered.

Jack_Russells4ever

I don't get some peoples logic. If some people refuse the vaccine and most of the sheep roll up their sleeves. Why do those who took the vaccines worry about the unvaccinated? Personally, I am not taking any unproven/poorly tested vaccine. I am willing to accept the risk to myself for not doing so. I am failing to understand why those folks who take the jab and worship the science behind their so called miracle want to forcible vaccinate those who do not agree? If your faith in vaccines is great then why should someone force a vaccine upon the rest of us? Either that vaccine is a miracle and your protected or you have doubts of its efficacy to protect you from those who said no. I have not taken a flu shot ever and I have only once came down with the flu in 20 some years. I will take that risk.

davidchannon

Because vaccines work by achieving herd immunity.
The more any virus spreads the more chance it can mutate and become something worse/more dangerous.
Another reason that vaccinated people care about unvaccinated people is that they have compassion and don't wish those people to suffer with out need.
I want my children to grow up with their grand parents in their lives for as long as possible - I want that for all children.
Another reason is caring about the health care system and associated costs. More vaccine, less sick people, less cost, less pressure on health service, more money for other nicer things ( or lower taxes depending on your political sway ).

Taking a vaccine for Covid-19 is especially critical due to the fact many young fit healthy people who get it - have no symptoms - BUT whilst they have it they ARE spreading it. Those young fit healthy people who work in shops, nursing homes, public transport, hospitals, doctors, etc etc.
Stop it spreading in the wide population - you stop it impacting the vulnerable. Unless you either don't care about them, or your happy for everyone else to carry on with their lives whilst the old and at risk are locked up isolated from the world.

Hopefully until the time a safe vaccine is available people will follow the guidelines to reduce the spread - and when a safe vaccine arrives enough people will take it up to prevent a small selfish minority impacting the rest of us.

If you wish to discuss this further then try twitter and facebook where you can find many like minded people, and those opposed who will relish arguing until the end of time.

Jack_Russells4ever

I appreciate your right to your opinion but I disagree and am NOT taking any vaccine that is rushed to market and has the likes of Bill Gates involved in peddling it. He is a eugenicist and wants global populations reduced. His polio vaccines he paid for have not reduced polio but actually caused many recipients in India to contract polio and his free I am here to help sponsored vaccines in Africa have cause countless women to be sterile. Is that what we want to risk our younger generations future on? My opinion is not a conspiracy theory it is a fact.

scrubbedexpat0105

The logic is precisely the opposite. It's precisely because there is a residual risk, which will hopefully be very small, that it's unfair to make vaccination optional. Those who opt out are being protected to a large degree by virtue of the fact that the majority are being vaccinated, but the opt-outers are not sharing the risk.

There are similar examples of shared collective risk in numerous other areas of society, such as conscription in wartime. If everyone could opt out of conscription (at no personal cost), who would go to fight? (I'm in favour of conscientious objection, FWIW - but accept the imposition of alternative requirements.)

And precisely because the vaccination is mandatory, there is a collective responsibility in society to reduce the associated risk as far as possible by insisting on a suitably rigorous drug development process.

wolfi

Davidchannon, I just wanted to thank you for your clear words!
I totally agree but I won't comment on the other posts.
A bit OT:
In my German hometown Tübingen there was started a company named Curevac by people from the university who had new ideas re viruses. it was first financed by the head of German software company SAP, 5 years ago Bill Gates invested some money (several millions) and just a few days ago Elon Musk made a visit. Seems he bought a German hardware company which not only makes components for his Tesla cars but is also interested in producing machines that make the vaccine.
First tests have already started - one person who is testing is our Green mayor, Boris Palmer.
They think they might have a working vaccine run through all test phases before the end of this year.

ecurb

I see that Scotland has just added Hungary to the list of countries requiring mandatory 14 day quarantine.
How long before the rest of the UK follows.

davidchannon

Its already been done

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54108049

FenTiger

What's the latest social gathering rules? I can't seem to find anything except advice from May 2020.

Budapest - I need to head up to Budapest to view a car. Would the latest travel restrictions allow me to do so? The car of my choice isn't available in Miskolc for the next 4-5 months so either I look for something else or buy second hand locally.