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Weekly Currency Update - GBP/EUR Week ending 14th August

Weekly Currency Update - GBP/EUR Week ending 14th August

Old Aug 18th 2009, 12:31 am
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Default Weekly Currency Update - GBP/EUR Week ending 14th August

Hi All,

As promised here’s a brief update on what’s been happening with the Euro over the last week.

The UK’s BRC (British Retail Consortium) retail sales survey said like for like sales were up 1.8% in July after a 1.4% increase in June and only 8% of the surveyors in the RICS report were seeing prices declining in July, compared to 18% in June and close to 100% last year. EU industrial production reversed June’s positive number to report a 0.6% decline, leaving the annual decline at 17%.

Just ahead of the Bank’s report the UK unemployment was released showing a 13 year high rate of 7.8%, with 2.4 million without jobs, setting the scene for the big downgrades expected from Mervyn and his team. But the downgrade of this year’s GDP forecast from -3.9% to -4.4% was tempered by a solid upgrade for 2010, from +1.1% to +1.8%. Further reading of King’s comments showed that the additional QE had been motivated by the need to address the danger of deflation over the next 2 years. Achieving a 2% inflation target is, after all, the Bank’s primary remit and their own model currently shows the danger of undershoot. Sterling remained stable at just above 1.16 in the wake of this report.

The real excitement came on Thursday when France and Germany reported they had escaped from the clutches of recession with similar 0.3% GDP gains in Q2. This bolstered the EU wide GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figure to -0.1%, just shy of the magic number. This was a major surprise to every economist and possibly even to the countries themselves.

Euro Movement – High’s & Low’s of last week (10/08/09 - 14/08/09)

High’s: 1.1775
Low’s: 1.1556

A movement of: 1.90%.

Difference on £200k

High: € 235,500
Low: € 231,120

Difference of: € 4,380

Whilst FX isn't the most thrilling of subjects, the sooner you begin to think about your money transfers, the more likely you are to make your money go further.

A further update will be added next week.


Mark Bodega
Director - HiFX
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