Leaving the EU.

Old Nov 6th 2015, 5:53 pm
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Default Leaving the EU.

Do members know what will happen to them if the UK leaves the EU? Our city has already written to ex-pats inviting them to take out German nationality.
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Old Nov 12th 2015, 2:29 pm
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Not likely much of anything. Might have to fill out a form or something. But if you're currently legally resident in Germany, you should be used to filling out forms by now. And you also would know that there is no shortage of "non-eu" nationals living and working in Germany and all over Europe. Besides, if it does come to that, there will be some sort of a reciprocal agreement. Nobody is going to kick anyone out.

There is another long thread about this already.
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Old Nov 12th 2015, 9:53 pm
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

No change of any significance in that regard.

Only change I'd be worried about would be the Merkel effect.
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Old Nov 12th 2015, 10:01 pm
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

In any case, freedom of movement to live and work isn't an EU related thing anyway, it is governed by the European Economic Area (EEA), and nothing has been said about Britain leaving the EEA. The EEA includes every country in the European Onion plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Lichtenstein.
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Old Nov 14th 2015, 4:51 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Originally Posted by hales View Post
Do members know what will happen to them if the UK leaves the EU? Our city has already written to ex-pats inviting them to take out German nationality.

Rush for dual-nationality passports as EU migrants fear Brexit
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Old Nov 14th 2015, 5:15 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Well, that's scary!

But I wonder why a Brexit would cause the EU to suddenly single out Brits out of all nationalities, to require visas and be ineligible for healthcare or any other benefits afforded to anyone else ...or vice-versa?

Suddenly, Brits would become the only EEA nationality to be denied everything? And Britain would suddenly single out any EU citizen and deny any rights afforded to all other legal residents? Pretty far-fetched, IMO.

This, like other pro-EU propaganda, frames a Brexit to equate to some sort of "cold war", which is a ridiculous presumption - such a condition wouldn't benefit either the UK or the EU.

But go ahead and apply for your dual-citizenship... Might come in handy for other reasons.
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Old Nov 15th 2015, 3:16 pm
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

As far as I know the UK wants to leave because it does not want freedom of movement and all the legal connection to other European countries which the EEA will still dictate. So I really wouldn't see any advantage for the UK if it were to leave the EU but not the EEA. If the UK stayed in the EEA it would still need to implement European law in important areas but would have no influence on its creation. The UK would also still have to accept European migrants. If the UK leaves the EU it would only make sense to leave completely and be free.
BTW, the EU has no problem with free movement but the UK does. So I guess there will be a good chance of restrictions on the movement of Europeans to the UK which in turn will mean the same for the Brits in Europe. Same will be true for access to health care, social benefits etc.

Just to be clear: There will be no right for British to move freely to Europe if the Europeans will not be able to move freely to the UK. There will be no access to health care for the British in Europe unless there is access to health care for Europeans in the UK.
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Old Nov 15th 2015, 3:22 pm
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Originally Posted by Assanah View Post
..... If the UK stayed in the EEA it would still need to implement European law in important areas but would have no influence on its creation. .....
Often the UK has little or no influence on the creation of new laws anyway because the UK finds itself in a small minority, often a minority of one. If this wasn't the case we probably wouldn't be having this discussion because it is at the root of most of the problems that the UK has with the EU.

Last edited by Pulaski; Nov 15th 2015 at 3:24 pm.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 7:44 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Originally Posted by Assanah View Post
As far as I know the UK wants to leave because it does not want freedom of movement and all the legal connection to other European countries which the EEA will still dictate. So I really wouldn't see any advantage for the UK if it were to leave the EU but not the EEA. If the UK stayed in the EEA it would still need to implement European law in important areas but would have no influence on its creation. The UK would also still have to accept European migrants. If the UK leaves the EU it would only make sense to leave completely and be free.
BTW, the EU has no problem with free movement but the UK does. So I guess there will be a good chance of restrictions on the movement of Europeans to the UK which in turn will mean the same for the Brits in Europe. Same will be true for access to health care, social benefits etc.

Just to be clear: There will be no right for British to move freely to Europe if the Europeans will not be able to move freely to the UK. There will be no access to health care for the British in Europe unless there is access to health care for Europeans in the UK.

Erm I don't really get how it would be all that much different. I'll use Germany as an example, because having lived there for a couple decades, I'm quite familiar with how it works.

First, the UK isn't a schengen subscriber. There are passport controls anyway. If you are referring to visas, well, Germany doesn't automatically give you the right to everything because you're an EU citizen. You have to apply like anyone else. And there's no shortage of non-EU citizens legally living and working in Germany.

If you reside in Germany, regardless of your nationality, you are obliged to buy health insurance at the same rate as anyone else - it is not like the UK where you are "entitled" simply because you have achieved residency. All German residents (unless verifiably skint, which is another daunting application process) are required to pay for it.

To be clear: There is no "free" healthcare in Germany, whether you're an EU citizen or not. It doesn't matter if you are en EU citizen or not, you still have to pay for it, and nobody will deny you obligatory health insurance because you're not an EU citizen. I believe the same is true in virtually all other EU member states.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 7:51 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Often the UK has little or no influence on the creation of new laws anyway because the UK finds itself in a small minority, often a minority of one. If this wasn't the case we probably wouldn't be having this discussion because it is at the root of most of the problems that the UK has with the EU.
I think it can be argued that the UK has less influence because it's not really an "equal" EU member. It is a bit of an "outsider". There are a number of key EU membership obligations that the UK has opted out of.

One of them is adoption the Euro as its sole currency, which effectively, "marries" the member and renders it a "dependent" of the EU. Naturally, those in the Eurozone will have "priority" influence over EU affairs than those outside it, because most EU legislation will intrinsically have far more effect on Eurozone members than non-Eurozone members.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 7:55 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

I uspect this weekends happenings in Paris will have a marked effect on the position of the EU over free movement, as there are rumours that at least one of the terrorists entered the EU as an assylum seeker from Syria, and it looks like many of them went to Paris from Belgium where they lived. There are rumours that the passports discovered were fakes, and probably created in Turkey, but with no checks on border crossings once the people were in Europe, then they were free to move about with no checks, and that may have been why the UK wasn't targeted as the passports my not have passed the checks as they came into the UK.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 9:14 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Originally Posted by mikelincs View Post
I uspect this weekends happenings in Paris will have a marked effect on the position of the EU over free movement, as there are rumours that at least one of the terrorists entered the EU as an assylum seeker from Syria, and it looks like many of them went to Paris from Belgium where they lived. There are rumours that the passports discovered were fakes, and probably created in Turkey, but with no checks on border crossings once the people were in Europe, then they were free to move about with no checks, and that may have been why the UK wasn't targeted as the passports my not have passed the checks as they came into the UK.
It probably matters little now what official stance the EU takes regarding free movement.

Most countries have decided enough is enough and self preservation is all that matters now, regardless of further EU hypocrisy.
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Old Nov 16th 2015, 10:08 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Well, it's a double-edged sword.

Schengen and it's "borderlessness" has a few decent benefits for European citizens, and if nothing else, encourages a sense of "unity" amongst members.

I believe one could argue that the problem isn't lack of borders between France and Germany or any other member state, but the wholly lax border checks when entering the EU, full stop.

And especially with the migrant crisis, the strategy of "fast-tracking" of migrant applications (and approvals) has clearly opened the door to a world of potentially serious problems, not only from a security standpoint, but socially and economically as well.

Frankly, if the EU could manage a bit more "unity" amongst its members, then securing the EU's borders would be a far more realistic premise.

Unfortunately, stupid, idealistic, quick-fix solutions like "fast tracking" entry of refugees has only encouraged more disunity amongst members, and therefore, the EU finds it an even greater challenge to impose common-sense entry rules at EU borders.

Now, I'm not suggesting that refusing entry to any refugees is appropriate, nor sensible. But failing a solution to the Syrian civil war (not happening anytime soon), it doesn't take a social academic to realise that "fast-tracking" them all in - and then simply sending them all off into European streets - isn't the most sensible solution.

Establishing entry facilities where refugees can be held for proper processing, providing food, shelter, and safety would have been the more intelligent solution.

Following successful processing, instead of simply tossing them on the streets, perhaps a bit of assistance in establishing an appropriate residence, establishing sustenance, perhaps some language training, introduction to European culture, and so on...

I'm not for a moment suggesting that any of that would be easy, quick, or inexpensive, but it would have been far more palatable to EU border states faced with handling the flood of refugees, who would naturally have been more interested in participating under those conditions, and ultimately, would render far less pressure on the entire schengen concept.

It seems to me that Schengen could live happily ever after, if the EU would only think before acting. I believe this is one of Merkel's biggest political faux pas of her career. And if they don't get it under control, it will annihilate her politically.

And of course, at the risk of ranting again about "federalism", this crisis exemplifies one of the benefits of a "federal" Europe, which would facilitate the ability to secure EU borders much more efficiently.

Frankly, at the end of this crisis (if ever), I for one, believe the EU will have (as a side effect) achieved a huge leap toward a federal Europe, whether people like it or not.

Just for the record, I am a fan of a federal Europe for reasons like this alone. I do not believe Europe will ever shed itself of its over-regulation, protectionism, or naive idealism. Those won't change whether it's a federal republic or not. But as this and other crises always illustrate, a federal Europe would be a significant improvement over the chaos it is now.

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Old Nov 16th 2015, 5:00 pm
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

I think that almost everyone now agrees that Merkel has messed up badly and turned a bad situation into a catastrophe and seemingly even now hasn't learned the error of her ways, hence her actions regarding Turkey.
No doubt it's great to have ideals, but absolutely pointless if they're totally unworkable.
(I wonder why Corbyn also comes to mind in that respect ?)

I honestly don't think you've got a handle on the real mindset of the European nations, Amid.
The UK apart, I think it will be a very long time if ever before the others are happy to call themselves European first and foremost, rather than French or Spanish or whatever and what we are seeing now is further evidence of this.
No talk now of we're all Europeans in this together, now it's every man Jack country for itself.
I don't see that attitude changing any time soon if ever at all.
It's a totally different kettle of fish to the USA and I have little doubt that in times of future crisis the same self interests will apply.

In addition the cultures, the traditions the very nature of the people's are extremely diverse and something each and every nation will always proudly stand up for whenever push comes to shove.
Maybe your dream of a few countries forming some sort of a federal Europe will come to pass, but I have little doubt that it will be an extremely fragile federation and in times of serious crisis quite likely to blow apart at the drop of a hat.
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Old Nov 17th 2015, 8:18 am
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Default Re: Leaving the EU.

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly View Post

I honestly don't think you've got a handle on the real mindset of the European nations, Amid.
The UK apart, I think it will be a very long time if ever before the others are happy to call themselves European first and foremost, rather than French or Spanish or whatever and what we are seeing now is further evidence of this.
No talk now of we're all Europeans in this together, now it's every man Jack country for itself.
I don't see that attitude changing any time soon if ever at all.
It's a totally different kettle of fish to the USA and I have little doubt that in times of future crisis the same self interests will apply.

In addition the cultures, the traditions the very nature of the people's are extremely diverse and something each and every nation will always proudly stand up for whenever push comes to shove.
Maybe your dream of a few countries forming some sort of a federal Europe will come to pass, but I have little doubt that it will be an extremely fragile federation and in times of serious crisis quite likely to blow apart at the drop of a hat.
Well, I'm not convinced the "will of the people" will have much to do with it. Surely the evidence so far isn't consistent with that.

The chronic crises of the EU have forced the EU to assume central control of a number of what were previously sovereign held rights.

For those in the Eurozone, following the debt crisis, the EU (ECB) necessarily assumed far more economic policy control, literally, taking far more control of sovereign budgets than ever before. Nobody voted for this, it was a basic necessity, which (as a side-effect) puts the EU in a far more central governance role - with respect to the economy anyway.

The migrant crisis is another example. No member state can solve this crisis in any sovereign way. Only the EU can effectively solve EU border control.

As you can see, each member state has a bit different view of how they manage their borders. And that will never work, unless the EU abandons schengen, which, frankly, is a key component of the whole European project. It won't give up schengen, but what it will do (I believe), out of pure necessity, is to implement a more "federal" style of border control, more or less assuming control of Europe's fringe borders, and removing (or greatly diminishing) that responsibility from sovereign state control.

And again, nobody will "vote" for this. It will simply be the only way to solve the problem.

Again, I suspect that one day, Europe will just wake up and realise it has become the "Federal Republic of Europe" it was always intended to be, without a fight, without a vote, but just because there wasn't any other way to solve each crisis.

And Britain... well, becoming a province of the Federal Republic of Europe is not in Britain's future. Wrong DNA.
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