Go Back  British Expats > Living & Moving Abroad > Europe > France
Reload this Page >

What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Old Mar 23rd 2017, 6:52 am
  #1  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
 
Joined: Jan 2012
Location: Dépt 61
Posts: 5,125
EuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond repute
Default What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

What if the Brexit talks break down within a few weeks or months? Presumably that's it and the UK is out with no agreement, they're not all going to sit round the table twiddling their thumbs and sticking their tongues out at each other until 2019 are they? The regulations give a maximum time limit for wrapping it all up but not a minimum, am I right?
EuroTrash is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 7:32 am
  #2  
dmu
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Joined: Apr 2008
Location: Hérault (34)
Posts: 8,729
dmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond reputedmu has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Originally Posted by EuroTrash View Post
What if the Brexit talks break down within a few weeks or months? Presumably that's it and the UK is out with no agreement, they're not all going to sit round the table twiddling their thumbs and sticking their tongues out at each other until 2019 are they? The regulations give a maximum time limit for wrapping it all up but not a minimum, am I right?
I"ll wait to see if and when the talks break down, before joining in this speculation!
dmu is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 7:35 am
  #3  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
 
Joined: Jan 2012
Location: Dépt 61
Posts: 5,125
EuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Just thinking that if you can't even agree on how to conduct the negotiations, it's not a great start.
EuroTrash is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 8:09 am
  #4  
BE Forum Addict
 
cyrian's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2009
Location: Scotland & Touraine [37]
Posts: 2,899
cyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

The period for negotiations can be extended if ALL 27 other countries ( and Belgian regions) agree to the extension.
I would expect that there would be agreement on certain topics (e.g. rights of expats) but others will go to the wire or beyond.
cyrian is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 8:41 am
  #5  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
 
Joined: Jan 2012
Location: Dépt 61
Posts: 5,125
EuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond reputeEuroTrash has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

But from what I've read, TM is currently refusing to deal with topics separately - she wants everything in the melting pot together so she can trade one thing off against another and sign one agreement covering everything at the end. I don't see how it will work but apparently that's what she wants. She won't agree to the EU's proposed negotiation schedule.
EuroTrash is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 9:59 am
  #6  
BE Forum Addict
 
cyrian's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2009
Location: Scotland & Touraine [37]
Posts: 2,899
cyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Originally Posted by EuroTrash View Post
But from what I've read, TM is currently refusing to deal with topics separately - she wants everything in the melting pot together so she can trade one thing off against another and sign one agreement covering everything at the end. I don't see how it will work but apparently that's what she wants. She won't agree to the EU's proposed negotiation schedule.
But she wants to have an agreement on existing EU expats asap.
They can have verbal agreement on some aspects which will be legitimized in the final agreement.
A lot of posturing has gone on by both sides.
Normally in negotiations there are things that you can easily agree then you move on to the more contentious bits and at the end you have a final agreement.
The EU is saying that the UK cannot have as good a deal outside the EU as inside.
Finally, both sides have to go back home and say that they have a good deal that works for everybody.
cyrian is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 10:10 am
  #7  
BE Forum Addict
 
Tweedpipe's Avatar
 
Joined: Oct 2007
Location: Halfway between Ricard & Absynthe
Posts: 4,161
Tweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond reputeTweedpipe has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Sorry, I have no meaningful comment on this, except TM is certainly a cartoonist's dream come true.
Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:
Tweedpipe is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 7:45 pm
  #8  
Hostage Negotiator
 
InVinoVeritas's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 5,173
InVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Originally Posted by EuroTrash View Post
What if the Brexit talks break down within a few weeks or months? Presumably that's it and the UK is out with no agreement, they're not all going to sit round the table twiddling their thumbs and sticking their tongues out at each other until 2019 are they? The regulations give a maximum time limit for wrapping it all up but not a minimum, am I right?
I believe what you say is quite correct. An extension beyond the 2 years would, in practice, be quite difficult to achieve, needing the agreement of the heads of state of the other 27, plus the Council president and the Commission president. On the other hand, an agreement within 2 years also looks tough, knowing how long the EU takes to enact much simpler decisions, but this at least only requires a qualified majority on the part of the EU. If there is going to be any fudging, then I think it will be on an implementation timetable at the end of the 2-year notice period.

A hard Brexit (maybe before the 2-years is up) appears to be a serious possibility with the UK, on one side, wanting to get on with the business of trade deals with the rest-of-the-world and the EU, on the other side, wanting to "punish" the UK and dissuade others in the 27 from following its example.

But this is politics and, as we all know, anything can happen.
InVinoVeritas is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 9:11 pm
  #9  
Austin. TX.
 
petitefrancaise's Avatar
 
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 5,902
petitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond reputepetitefrancaise has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Something that has been bothering me....
why did the Labour party have a 3 line whip last month when it was debated, forcing the labour MPs to vote for Brexit when previously the party line was totally against it?
petitefrancaise is offline  
Old Mar 23rd 2017, 9:15 pm
  #10  
Forum Regular
 
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 44
Vinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond reputeVinosity has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Because the Executive felt it would be political suicide if the party were not to follow "the will of the people".
Vinosity is offline  
Old Mar 24th 2017, 7:44 am
  #11  
BE Forum Addict
 
cyrian's Avatar
 
Joined: Apr 2009
Location: Scotland & Touraine [37]
Posts: 2,899
cyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond reputecyrian has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Originally Posted by Vinosity View Post
Because the Executive felt it would be political suicide if the party were not to follow "the will of the people".
Spot on
cyrian is offline  
Old Mar 24th 2017, 4:45 pm
  #12  
CPW
BE Enthusiast
 
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 622
CPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Originally Posted by Vinosity View Post
Because the Executive felt it would be political suicide if the party were not to follow "the will of the people".
Yes, and without more nuanced debate than either side seems to be capable of, it probably would have been close to political suicide too.
CPW is offline  
Old Mar 24th 2017, 4:50 pm
  #13  
CPW
BE Enthusiast
 
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 622
CPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond reputeCPW has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Originally Posted by EuroTrash View Post
What if the Brexit talks break down within a few weeks or months? Presumably that's it and the UK is out with no agreement, they're not all going to sit round the table twiddling their thumbs and sticking their tongues out at each other until 2019 are they? The regulations give a maximum time limit for wrapping it all up but not a minimum, am I right?
Even if all else fails, I think the usual sort of "fudge factors" will come into play if necessary. It seems vanishingly unlikely that negotiators on either side would simply throw in the towel after a few weeks or months and simply say "there's no deal". (People are forever complaining that Theresa May has no strategy, but I'm sure she does. On the other hand she's right when she says that having a constant running commentary, from the media and others, about negotiating positions would be very unhelpful. People are prone to be trying to do that anyway, even from a position of ignorance. And neither party is likely to want to release its full position for discussion before they have to, for obvious reasons.)
CPW is offline  
Old Mar 24th 2017, 5:19 pm
  #14  
Hostage Negotiator
 
InVinoVeritas's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 5,173
InVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond reputeInVinoVeritas has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Originally Posted by CPW View Post
Even if all else fails, I think the usual sort of "fudge factors" will come into play if necessary. It seems vanishingly unlikely that negotiators on either side would simply throw in the towel after a few weeks or months and simply say "there's no deal". (People are forever complaining that Theresa May has no strategy, but I'm sure she does. On the other hand she's right when she says that having a constant running commentary, from the media and others, about negotiating positions would be very unhelpful. People are prone to be trying to do that anyway, even from a position of ignorance. And neither party is likely to want to release its full position for discussion before they have to, for obvious reasons.)
InVinoVeritas is offline  
Old Mar 28th 2017, 7:23 pm
  #15  
BE Forum Addict
 
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,114
HKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond reputeHKG3 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: What if ... (a Brexit question, sorry)

Well, l think the UK government will need to look into the archives to find the social security conventions she enters with current EU members as back ups!

The UK ratified a Social Security convention with France in 1958 -

http://treaties.fco.gov.uk/docs/pdf/1958/TS0044.pdf

There was also a special protocol respecting health service included in this convention. British Citizens are entitle to get a refund on health cost on the same bases as a French insured person, while French citizens are entitle to use the NHS in UK.

I don't know whether this convention is still valid or not. However, these pre EEC conventions can serve as a reference to the bilateral agreements the UK Foreign Office hopes to conclude after Brexit.
HKG3 is offline  

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.