dmu

OH is now offering his services as political analyst!
But wonders whether Macron will accept his offer of an alliance....

Tweedpipe

Indeed Bayrou has certainly freed himself of a certain political embarrasment, having made a wise choice - at least financially- as he would have been expected to gain at least 5% votes to retain his deposit. But one never knows with him, having been a candidate for the last 3 presidential elections. According to MmeTP he does more colour-changes than a chameleon.
All rather interesting though, because historically he's remembered as a turncoat, and also during the recent right-wing primaries he was openly supporting A. Juppe. His similar support however has not been given to F. Fillon following recent events, so naturally he's supporting a more centrist candidate in the form of E. Macron.
I'm naturally a little relieved that I won't have to "eat my beret", as I'm told that even the liquorice ones are not particularly appetizing! I will however raise it to MrDMU, who's crystal ball was spot-on. Bravo.

HKG3

The BBC has done a special report on Macron's recent visit to London -

France's liberal Macron courts expats in UK in battle for votes - BBC News

Macron tries to get French expats in the UK (200,000 in London alone according to the BBC) to vote for him. He said that he will 'attract talent back to France by freeing up the economy and encouraging risk-taking and enterprise'.

Sounds like a Thatcherite to me!

HKG3

Meanwhile more mishaps from Le Pen -

Marine Le Pen refuses to wear headscarf for meeting with Grand Mufti

morpeth

The day any French politician in power can seriously free up economy and encourage risk taking on a nation-wide level I will eat my that. I love France, but for a while I ran a company there. ridiculous constraints on business. London will continue to be a financial center far more important than those in Europe with or without Brexit.

HKG3

However, with Brexit and the end of 'passsport' rights in the EU financial single market, Paris could become the financial centre for the EU. Even HSBC said that it will be moving thousands of jobs from London to Paris.

dmu

In his name, thank you, kind sir!

morpeth

There will be some business that may go to Paris, but fundamentally London will remain alongside NY the world financial center. France doesn't have the financial culture or freedom of action that London has to offer. London has the infrastructure, favorable regulatory regime, and simple experience. Try listing a company in France and raising capital compared to London ( or Toronto even) , it will become rapidly apparent how cumbersome it is to do such business in France compared to the UK.

Tweedpipe

I have no time for her, but imho that action was not surprising, and arguably, justified.

Tweedpipe

I'm afraid I have no time for F. Bayrou either. Those with short memories may not wish to recall that in 2012, in a surprise (albeit true to character) turnaround, instead of giving his support to Sarkozy (as expected) he gave his and his central party's vote to Hollande. Brilliant decision!
That additional support gave Flamby the advantage he needed. So we know, in some part at least who to blame for the last 5 year's disasterous results.
Also, as Bayrou is very close to Juppe, it was expected that he would give parallel support to Fillon, especially as Bayrou just a few months ago was very openly critical of E. Macron. Imho I believe that F. Bayrou has again blotted his (already very stained) copybook. I reckon he should go on a very long guided tour Up Pompeii.........
Two newspaper clips caught my eye yesterday (one left-wing, and one right-wing publication) making reference to Bayrou's recent decision:
"Present from heaven, or poisoned kiss!"
"Jesus Macron, Barou de Lourdes!"
Also check out today's excellent political cartoon, depicting Macron being 'chaperoned' by his wife to a fortune-teller, and the teller's predictions. Brilliant!

If it wasn't for sparks of humour like this, due to the current political situation and the very precarious state of France, I think I would be crying into my morning cup of java.

dmu

OH is entirely with you there, Bayrou's completely "versatile" (in the French sense.) and, as Mrs TP says, a political chameleon.
The Ecologist candidate has announced his alliance with Hamon and they seem to be courting Melenchon (shades of Mitterand in 1981). By doing so, they're all admitting their weakness, and my crystal ball announces the second round between Le Pen and Fillon (despite all his "shortcomings").
But, like the Brexit Referendum and Trump, there's no knowing....
He (OH) is in the depths of despair at the future of France, and, like his grandfather last century, is sighing "Pauvre France" all the time....

HKG3

I may be a bit naive here, but I cannot understand why people are worried about Le Pen being elected as President of France.

Unlike Trump, who belongs to a political party with majorities in both houses of the United States Congress. Le Pen, as President of France, will only have two MPs in the National Assembly. With such a small number of MPs, she cannot do anything without the backing of the centre right or centre left parties.

HKG3

I don't know how can anyone justified what she did. She was in Lebanon meeting a religious leader. Recently even a Swedish female government minister wears a headscarf when she was in Iran. We should respect the culture of the host country.

dmu

If Le Pen is elected President, she'd probably have more than 2 députés, but certainly not enough to be able to pass any of her proposed laws. None of the other parties would back her (except possibly Bayrou, with his track record, if Macron doesn't reach the second round).
We've already lived through a couple of "cohabitations" which were unnatural periods and the French won't want another chaotic situation. I think that she'll get into the second round, but that there'll be a repetition of 2002 and the electors will vote massively for whoever her opponent is, to avoid chaos.
IM(and OH's)HO

dmu

Forgot to say that, in addition to her economic propositions, Le Pen wants France to leave Europe and return to the franc. This worries them.