G-J-B

For the past 3 years (before I'd contemplated moving to France) I'd been following another forum closely, about house price crashes. At the time a lot of people (the media included) wouldn't even entertain the idea that house prices might start to decrease in value.
When I started my first job, it was at a time when the prices started to shoot up in the UK, and they went up and up, year after year, and so I rented cheaply and saved for the whole period (right up until now, 7 years later). I hadn't planned to come to France, but moved (with no regrets) to be with my girlfriend, two months ago. Unfortunately it was also at a time that the pound started to down in value pretty drastically.
Although things here in Paris are good at the moment, at some point we'd like to expand, start a family and buy a house down south. It may be that the pound recovers in 2 or 3 years, but if it doesn't, I was hoping the prices here in France might come down a little to counterbalance the lost value of the pound against the euro. There was an article on the French radio this morning about house prices coming down, although I imagine it's only marginal (I can't follow the radio too well, as they speak at 100mph). Does anybody have any thoughts about the future prospects of property and house prices in France projecting forwards for the next 2-3 years given the state of the global economy?

themoose

1....great photo of Paris.
2....i understand (or dont like yourself) the radio at 100mph.

3. as for prices. I suspect (no expert) but due to the world concerns re mortgages and debt, that things will cool all over for the next 18 months of so. The trend to watch is (as always) the USA, i suspect that they will pick up first. But before then i suspect that prices will fall, as jobs maybe lost and people struggle to keep repayments going.

Its a sad fact, but often we (some anyway) exceed what we can afford, only to realise a little late. But as a consequence perhaps this re-balance of things (and general living costs) will make things more reasonable and more affordable to more people.

I wish you luck , and hope you are enjoying your new life in Paris. Beautiful place.

G-J-B

Thanks Moose!

The great big U S of A is definitely the country to watch right now, although I think it's the Brits who like to live on credit more than anyone else I know! It's harder to follow the news in France, although I sometimes log into the French newspaper websites. There's a lot of moaning about petrol and food prices, and I don't think Europe and the Euro is as immune as some might believe.
It seesm to me that everywhere needs to readdress the balance, but if it takes a recession to get there, it's going to be a bit miserable in the mean time.

Thanks for the good luck wishes. Whilst I'm aching to get out into fresh country living, I can't grumble at Paris being a grotty city to live in.

val50

In our part of Normandy, we've seen a steady increase in house prices over the last few years, with no sign of them dropping at the moment.
I don't think the French market can be compared to that of the USA/UK. Credit regulations are much stricter here, there is not the same attitude towards credit etc.
Whilst there might be fewer English buyers around, due to the £/euro exchange rate, there still seem to be quite a few buyers from Holland/Belgium/Germany looking in this area, which is keeping it fairly buoyant. Our town is undergoing major renovations, due mainly to Euro funds according to the signs going up everywhere, the train station is the latest to benefit. With house prices in Paris so high, we are finding people are buying here and commuting.
Obviously it will vary from area to area, and you will always find those not so popular where prices are lower and/or not increasing.

Andrea50

I seem to remember when I was in France (2004-2006) there was mention that M. Sarkozy was keen on allowing the French to borrow against their property.

At the time, I suspected this was to: 1. try to win votes as he was trying to beat DeVillepin at the time and also 2. try to boost the French economy by giving the French (quite a few of whom seem to have all/most of their money in property, so not available to spend) more money in their pockets.

Now I am back here I don't know what's going on, or if he did push this through or if he decided against it. My partner at the time thought that if it went through this would be bad in the long term for the French economy as, after the honeymoon period of having access to large funds at the expense of reducing the equity in their property, they would fall into the same trap that lots of Brits seem to find themselves in, ie having borrowed and borrowed against the house, when they come to sell it they find they have little equity left after mortgage etc is paid off.

Anyone know any more about this and what is happening now? As someone who is planning to return to France hopefully in the next year or so, I am interested to follow the movement of the French market and the issue of pound to euro. When we were there, the French largely seemed to think that their property market was relatively stable in comparison to the more dynamic English market - people over there tended not to move about so much, probably due to the much larger agent/notaire fees and the 16% tax one had to pay each time! As I said, don't know if things have changed or not, interested to hear what others think.

Andy

G-J-B

Hi Val and Andy,

You're quite right Val, the situation is different here, in general people seem to spend what they have. Maybe it's my perspective from being in Paris, but employment is a problem, and whilst there's a lot of rich folks in the city (a few very poor as well of course), I imagine this wealth doesn't always translate in some of the suburbs and countryside.
I have heard the Dutch are keen buyer's of French property, and I've no idea whatsoever about the Dutch economy. Here in Paris, prices don't appear to be dropping. Space is at a premium for sure. My partner's friend just bought a studio apartment in Paris, and whilst she has a pretty well paid job in the music industry, she could only stretch to 21metres squared, and with no kitchen (she has to cook on a camping gas stove).

Hi Andy. I'm afraid I don't know if Sarkozy pushed through that policy, but from the promises he made and the actions actually taken, I'd remain sceptical. Wasn't he supposed to reform the high inheritence tax here in France too - I don't know anything happened with that? I get the impression Sarkozy is keen to align himself closer to America and Britain and if France does move in that direction, I'm sure things will change (and not necessarily for the better).
Hopefully the pound will make something of a recovery. Even if it doesn't reach the highs of 2007, I'd settle for something a little better than the state it's in now.

Novocastrian

Parisians???!!! Shit, there goes the neighbourhood.

val50

Yeah, I know - imagine what effect it will have when the Canadians start moving in too
bloody immigrants, eh

G-J-B

Spare a thought for me, I live surrounded by millions of them on a daily basis.

themoose

how i dream of that