scrubbedexpat097

I wonder if your busy cyclone season has any indication of us having a busy hurricane season this coming summer for our part of the world. Would be interesting to see...... stay safe people!

Pollyana

He almost certainly will, Townsville - Cardwell seems to be the favourite zone at present for him to come ashore........but until he actually reforms its pretty much guesswork........

Pollyana

Could be - you didn't have too much coming ashore last season did you, from memory? Be interesting to see how it pans out - ours seems to be picking up speed pretty fast.

scrubbedexpat097

Last year was the quietest I have known, we arrived here in 1989 so we have survived 21 hurricane seasons now

How long is your cyclone season? We start in June and go through to the end of November. Most activity seems to between late August and into October, that's when the sea temperature is at it's warmest.

I hope your weather activity slows down soon.

Pollyana

November 1st till April 30th is the real season, but it doesn't usually get going much till the second half of January. The Bureau of Met reckoned this would be a bad/busy season, about 15 cyclones in Aussie waters, and at least 6 making landfall. I think we are in for a busy couple of months

scrubbedexpat097

So between us May is the only "safe" month

Hope everyone stays safe and it calms down soon, and you don't get too worn out at work mate

rocket01

Wilma is the one to worry about as I recon this one could turn and follow it.

Pollyana

Don't know about Wilma, she was expected to come this way but is on a path south to New Zealand at present. Might still turn though, the one predictable thing with cyclones is their unpredictability

rocket01

Looks like Anthony is sucking up some dry air atm just before it forms into a grade 1 cyclone with in the next 24hrs to 36hrs http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohe...hirgmscol.html

Wilma is looking menacing.

Pollyana

Wilma is off to NZ, shouldn't bother us

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohe...s/shwvgms.html

Keep your eye on the swirl currently between Anthony and Wilma...........

rocket01

I see and there now expecting two to probably make land somewhere near townsville even hitting catogory 3.

rocket01

Anyone between Ayr and cooktown should now keep a good eye on Anthony as its now been graded to a cyclone

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

DeadVim

To the untrained eye (i.e. mine, both of them) that swirl looks like it's heading a bit closer to the south of the state

Pollyana

Untrained eyes can sometimes see very well.........

At present its too undefined to say how strong a system it will be or where its likely to go, but......... the guys in the Weatherzone forum are certainly not ruling out the south-east and they have been watching these for years in some cases. Following the computer models on Weatherzone over the last week I'd say personally there is a fairly good chance of the southern half of the State copping something. A few of us played around with the models last week and although they all have differences in them, the basic idea is pretty much the same.

Its way out of the area of responsibiity for the Bureau of Met, besides being too undefined for them to be able to issue anything official even if they have any ideas themselves.

We are going back onto a more-staff-24/7 basis at work from Sunday.

If it does cross the Qld coast we are looking at least a week away I reckon, so I suggest keep your eyes on it. If you want the geekie stuff, follow the forums on Weatherzone, and I'll put what I can on here. I'd also be taking myself out to Bunnings or somewhere for a tarp and some rope and look at checking out that evacuation kit you put together, just in case.

http://www.emergency.qld.gov.au/emq/css/beprepared.asp


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As usual, this is my own observations - if I'm posting official stuff from the Bureau, EMQ etc I will make it very clear that it is from them.
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Pollyana

Yep, back to cyclone status, he's on his way to the coast...somewhere.....

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY, CATEGORY 1, has redeveloped this morning and is moving in a north northeasterly direction. TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY is expected to adopt more of a north northwesterly track this afternoon and evening before becoming slow moving and intensifying further on Saturday.