Pollyana

This is from the Fiji Met Service and refers to what "may"become cyclone Yasi.

Advisory Number 3 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 12:23pm VUT Sunday 30 January 2011.

At 11:00am local time today, a tropical low (1001 hPa) was located near 13.6S 170.4E, letter J, number 3 of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map. This is about 295 KM northeast of Maewo. The system is moving northwest at 17 KM/HR. The potential for the system to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone as well as move to the central or northern parts of Vanuatu is the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 30 Jan) 13.1S, 169.3E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 30 Jan) 13.0S, 168.0E 25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 31 Jan) 12.9S, 166.8E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 31 Jan) 12.9S, 165.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 31 Jan) 12.8S, 161.9E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 1 Feb) 13.0S, 158.6E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)

-----------------------------------

which means it could intensify to a Cat 2 Cyclone within 48 hours - which is very quick.
The intensity of soon to be Yasi, looking at the models, is indicated to be such that it is probably going to be at least a Cat 4 or higher. However, unlike some such as Tracy or Larry, its area of gales is, from the models, quite large, possibly up to 400km across which makes it an extremely dangerous cyclone once it crosses the coast as it will affect such a large area.
Too early to make any predictions as to a crossing point, or even accurate predictions as to strength when it gets to Queensland. However all the models have been following it for several days as its deepened and all are fairly sure now it is coming this way, probably for around Thursday.

This morning's view from Google Earth shows the developing system and TC Anthiony (off Townsville).

Pollyana

This morning's press conference.
Jim Davidson from the Bureau of Meteorology has referred to Anthony and the developing system as "David and Goliath"

iamthecreaturefromuranus

So that's where Jim Davidson went.... he's toned his act down a bit.

BigH68

looks like there is no trip to Brissy to see billy next Thursday then............OH BUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pollyana

You're a week ahead of yourself....Billy's the 11th, might have cleaned the mess up by then!

Pollyana

She has now been named as Tropical Cyclone Yasi.

Pic of Anthony with big sister Yasi, from earlier this evening......

BigH68

I know...but we had thought with all the floods we wouldnt get there, then we thought yay all looks ok...now the kids are in panic mode again poor buggas lol...been looking forward to it for so long...serves us right for planning something in Feb....bad Billy lol

DeadVim

I may take this opportunity to peruse the shelves of Bunnings ...

First I've got to fix the washing machine ... it's all go here

Pollyana

I sympathise, believe me...every chance I shall end up at work that night and miss it too. Only got to see half the cricket yesterday as I got called into work halway through

Alfresco

Why is it named Yasi and not the next alphabetical name?

iamthecreaturefromuranus

The 'naming guys' were playing Yahtzee at the time.

Alfresco

Or they were drinking

DeadVim

It was named outside BOM's jurisdiction so Fiji got first dibs

DeadVim

My expert opinion ... it's going to get wet and windy later in the week ...

Alfresco

Ah!