Wol

If you want a break from the serious nature of this debate and a great chuckle, Cardinal George Pell's column in today's Sunday Telegraph will do the job.

He says he decided to investigate Climate Change this week, he has "discovered" the Medieval Warming period, looked at the Northern winter and has found that CO2 is a very small proportion of the atmosphere.

His expert conclusion is that those who accept there is global warming should instead look at the evidence.

This from a Catholic theologian - "do not make up your mind without looking at the evidence".

You couldn't make it up!

(Back to the debate....)

Perry Groves

I blame it on Cow methane.

Lord_Farquar

Maybe he could show us the evidence supporting the theory that condoms spread AIDs and HIV.

slapphead_otool

Interesting piece in the Australian today, with William Kininmonth, a former director of the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre, saying that "The best computer models are predictive for six to eight days -- that's the limit of our weather forecasting ability”

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1225827285274

Kininmonth headed Australia's National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology from 1986 to 1998. He was Australia's delegate to the WMO Commission for Climatology, was a member of Australia's delegations to the Second World Climate Conference (1990) and the subsequent intergovernmental negotiations for the Framework Convention on Climate Change (1991-1992).

William Kininmonth is a climatologist.

Wol

>>Interesting piece in the Australian today, with William Kininmonth, a former director of the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre, saying that "The best computer models are predictive for six to eight days -- that's the limit of our weather forecasting ability”<<

That sounds rather as if you are falling into the "weather = climate" thinking. I know you are not, but this is just the sort of quote that is getting spread around and re-quoted by less informed internetters.

slapphead_otool

Agreed, and I would dispute his comment about predictive computer models. What he doesn’t say, or fails to understand, is that the confidence levels of predictive analytical modelling decline over time, for a variety of reasons.

Given 3 years of internal data and external influences i can predict with a high degree of confidence not only the sales volume for Walmart tomorrow, but even the items purchased, time of purchase, even the path prospective purchases will take through the shopping isles. But to do so for a date 10 years away is impossible.

This does however touch upon the climate modelling insofar as the same logic of diminishing confidence levels also applies (just as it does to any other predictions). Which is why climate predictions are so complicated.

To follow the Walmart example, climate prediction would be like predicting how may size 8 thong wearing 104kg women aged 52 will walk though the door at 11:05am on 7 Feb 2050.

Its impossible to predict because there are so many variable factors.

Burbage

Or let's put it another way. If the climate boys at the IPCC are as good at computer modelling as they say, then they should be millionaires by now. The financial markets are simpler to model by several orders of magnitude.

slapphead_otool

Bang on the nail Burbage!

In fact i can go even further. Despite predictive analytics being based upon recognition of historical patterns and trends and upon the weighting of influencing factors, we still cannot predict the winning horse in the Melbourne cup! These are the most closely studied forms in the world and there are only 20 or 30 horses, and yet we still can’t get it right.

When it comes to finance its even worse. We cannot predict anything with a great del of accuracy. Try working out the euro to yen rate for 7th July 2010.

We can forward purchase off a bank by paying a margin – in effect paying the bank for the risk it is taking on the rate. The banks try to amortise the risk with other exchange rate risks. Where this doesn’t occur through bank customers the bank itself will often purchase against the risk. They monitor this risk by complex risk engines.

The problem is the massive number of external factors that influence the rate, and also influence other factors in the equation. The Euro to Yen rate will be influenced by the current economic crisis in Greece, and probable crisis in Portugal and Spain. But they will in turn affect confidence in other exchange rates eg US$ to Yen, and US$ to Euro. Those US$ factors will then influence other rates, which will further reduce confidence in the Euro to Yen.

I have worked on two bank risk engines, and have sworn never to do so again, even though the pay is amazing. It is a nightmare of interdependencies and complex assumptions.

Yet compared to Climate Change, finance is a walk in the park. IPCC should start by picking the Grand National winner. Do that 10 years in a row, then pick all of the exchange rates month by month for another 10 years, then look at climate.

Wol

>>To follow the Walmart example, climate prediction would be like predicting how may size 8 thong wearing 104kg women aged 52 will walk though the door at 11:05am on 7 Feb 2050.<<

Wrong!

That example is analogous to predicting the *weather*.

Predicting *climate* would be akin to forecasting how many shoes, including thongs, would be manufactured per annum in 2050. Big difference.

However...

slapphead_otool

I would disagree – predicting thong manufacture is a relatively simple monodimensional problem. Calculate population size in 2050, and use an estimated percentage of thong ownership per head, and you have an answer. Confidence levels would be impacted by simple issues like erroneous population estimates and popularity of thongs. Global nuclear warfare of black death might impact the population for example. But these are the only two factors that might impact results.

Climate change is very different given the innumerable factors affecting it.

remember - we are talking climate change caused by man made CO2, not climate change in general.

iolande

Agreed. I'm interested in the topic mainly from the standpoint of how the debate is being framed by all interested parties. For example, you will have noticed from my post that TASSC has put alot of effort into disseminating arguments and *some* people are parroting them. Christopher Monckton (of whom I openly admit I am not a big fan as I believe he is deliberately deceiving people) showed up environmental activists by asking them questions about basic issues and they could not fully answer them. So there are people on both sides of the debate who are happy to follow what they are told.

You are dead right though - AGW is an area of scientific enquiry. To the rest of the population it appears to be a political issue. Who knows what is right?

PS - I find myself half agreeing with you and half not-agreeing with you! At least you don't get silly and personal like some posters!

slapphead_otool

Hi Iolande,

I fully agree, and I must admit that i am concerned about how we are treating the planet – not just in terms of CO2 emissions.

I google my home town, and what was a small farming community is now a mass of housing estates.

I have a friend working in the logging industry in Indonesia. Only today we chatted on Blackberry chat, and he told me “the scale of the business is amazingly large, and to think that its privately owned and the owner has other gigantic businesses, its staggering”.

You can guess when my feelings were......

Having said that, the integrity of scientific research remains paramount in my mind.

iolande

Ouch - doesn't Indonesia have that huge family who own thousands of
businesses? I seem to remember that from my MBA. I read somewhere recently that Indo was on track to have harvested 95% of its forests. Don't know if that is an exaggeration, but having read what you have written, it seems like an alarming amount is being done.

slapphead_otool

These blog article gives a fair perspective:

http://viewsfromtheeast.blogspot.com...n-sumatra.html

http://viewsfromtheeast.blogspot.com...tions-run.html

There are a lot of rich families. The Sahatos, the Bakrie brothers etc.

Wol

It's been going on for decades. I used to travel through the area during the eighties and nineties, and during the clearing season the visibility was down to a couple of hundred metres over millions of square miles for weeks on end. Flights were affected and people had to wear masks even in Singapore and KL.