Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 10:52 pm EST on Friday 18 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Mornington West to Aurukun.

At 10:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
140 kilometres west of Mornington Island and 430 kilometres west southwest of
Kowanyama and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours. However, the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone overnight on
Saturday or during Sunday. If this occurs gales are likely to develop in
coastal communities between Mornington West and Aurukun.

People between Mornington West and Aurukun should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 137.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 90 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Saturday 19 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

==================================


Possible track across the Cape, into the Coral Sea. Less certainty once it reaches the Coral Sea but it MIGHT (according to some models) do a 180 and head back towards the Queensland coast.
Worth watching for anyone on the northern half of the Queensland coast, especially anyone likely to be impacted by ots route across the Cape.

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 4:52 am EST on Saturday 19 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Mornington Island to Aurukun.

At 4:00 am EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
235 kilometres west of Mornington Island and
520 kilometres west southwest of Kowanyama and
moving west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours. However, the system is expected to move over water during Sunday and may
intensify into a tropical cyclone early Monday morning. If this occurs gales
are likely to develop in coastal communities between Mornington Island and
Aurukun.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for coastal areas in the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

Pollyana

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the
Peninsula,
Gulf Country and
Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 5:39 am Saturday, 19 January 2013.

A Tropical Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal communities in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Please refer to latest warnings for further infomation.

Synoptic Situation:
A deepening monsoon trough extends from a low over the southern Gulf of Carpentaria across Cape York Peninsula into the Coral Sea. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone early on Monday morning.

Damaging winds, with peak gusts of around 90km/h, are expected with squally monsoonal showers and thunderstorms about coastal areas in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria north of Kowanyama, for the rest of today and tomorrow.

Locations which may be affected include Aurukun, Weipa and the Torres Strait Islands.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and about the Queensland east coast north of Cairns today, extending to be north of Cardwell on Sunday morning. 6 hour totals in excess of 100mm are likely with isolated totals in excess of 200mm possible. Currently the heaviest rain is located on radar near Mornington Island.

Locations which may be affected include Mornington Island, Burketown, Normanton, Karumba, Kowanyama, Aurukun, Weipa, Lockhart River, Cooktown, Cairns, Innisfail and Cardwell.

Pollyana

TC Oswald could come alive yet.......


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 10:37 pm EST on Sunday 20 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas
from Burketown to Mapoon, including Mornington Island

At 8:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
75 kilometres east southeast of Borroloola and
115 kilometres west northwest of NT/Qld Border and
moving east at 11 kilometres per hour.

The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours. However, the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone during
Tuesday. If this occurs gales will be likely to develop in coastal communities
between Burketown and Mapoon, including Mornington Island.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for coastal areas in the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 137.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 90 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

-----------------------------------------------

Looks likely to cross the cape bringing rain with it to Cairns and FNQ.

There is also a low spinning up in the Coral Sea -

Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For coastal waters from Torres Strait to Cape Melville and from Cardwell to Bowen.
Issued at 10:45 pm EST on Sunday 20 January 2013

Synoptic Situation
The monsoon trough extends from the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, across Cape York Peninsula to about Cairns, and is expected to remain slow moving. A small low on the trough is currently located off the north tropical coast near Flinders Reef, and is expected to move west southwest on Monday.

--------------------------------------

That is also likely to bring heavy rain to the coast; who knows how far down the coast it will move, and its even possible that the other low may cross the cape and the two of them combine.

Either way the northern part of Queensland, and maybe even the Mackay/Rockhampton/Gladstone area could be in for some good rain.

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 4:43 pm EST on Monday 21 January 2013

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Karumba to Cape York.

The Cyclone WARNING for Mornington Island has been CANCELLED.

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Oswald, Category 1 was estimated to be
260 kilometres south southwest of Aurukun and
70 kilometres west of Kowanyama and
moving east northeast at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Oswald, a category 1 cyclone, has formed in the southeastern
Gulf of Carpentaria. Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to continue moving
northeast and remain a category 1 cyclone before crossing the coast between
Aurukun and Kowanyama tonight.

Gales with gusts to 90 km/h are occurring on the coast around Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw, and are expected to extend northward towards Aurukun as the cyclone approaches.

Heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding is likely in areas between Karumba and
Torres Strait, including Mornington Island, today and will persist into Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses the coast, a storm tide is expected in coastal areas
between about Kowanyama and Weipa. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas that may possibly be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Abnormally high tides are otherwise expected to occur about all remaining parts along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year.
Large waves are also likely along the beachfront in coastal areas between Weipa and Torres Strait.

People between Karumba and Cape York should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice at 8:00 pm EST.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Oswald at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 141.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Monday 21 January.


-------------------------------------------

There's also a low developing in the Coral Sea. Except plenty of rain (at last!) down that eastern coast.

Pollyana

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDESFor people in the
Peninsula,
Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands,
Herbert and Lower Burdekin and
Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.


Issued at 3:50 am Wednesday, 23 January 2013.


Synoptic Situation:


At 3am, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was situated approximately 50km west northwest of Cooktown and moving in a south southeasterly direction at about 19 kilometres per hour. The monsoon trough extended from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald to the Queensland east coast near Cairns. Vigorous monsoon flow was continuing to the north of the ex-tropical cyclone over Cape York Peninsula.


Damaging winds, with gusts to 90 km/hr, and heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, are likely in the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower and Burdekin and parts of the Peninsula district today and will develop about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district during today. Six hour rainfall accumulations of 100 to 200 mm are possible. This heavy rain may also worsen the existing flood situation in the Tully area. Locations which may be affected include Weipa, the Torres Strait Islands, Coen, Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail, Townsville, Bowen, Proserpine and Mackay.

Water levels along the west coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Cape Keerweer may again exceed the highest tide of the year on the high tide early this afternoon. Locations likely to be affected include Aurukun, Weipa, and the Torres Strait Islands.




Severe weather is no longer occurring in the Gulf Country district and the warning for this district is CANCELLED.


103mm of rainfall has been recorded at Weipa in the 3 hours to 3am.


Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.



The next warning is due to be issued by 9:50 am.

Pollyana

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES

For people in the Peninsula, Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.

Issued at 11:46 am Wednesday, 23 January 2013.

Synoptic Situation:

At 11am, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was situated approximately 85km west of Cape Tribulation and moving in a south southwest direction at about 10 kilometres per hour. The monsoon trough extended from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald to the Queensland east coast near Cairns. Vigorous monsoon flow was continuing to the north of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald over Cape York Peninsula.

Damaging winds, with gusts to 90 km/hr, and heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, are likely in the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower and Burdekin and remaining parts of the Peninsula district today and will develop about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district during today. Six hour rainfall accumulations of 100 to 200 mm are possible. This heavy rain may also worsen the existing flood situation in areas with flood warnings current across parts of north Queensland. Locations which may be affected include Weipa, Coen, Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail, Townsville, Bowen, Proserpine and Mackay.

Water levels along the west coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Cape Keerweer may again exceed the highest tide of the year on the high tide this afternoon although levels are unlikely to be as high as yesterday. Locations likely to be affected include Aurukun, Weipa, and the Torres Strait Islands.

Destructive winds are no longer occurring in the far northern parts of the Peninsula district and the warning for destructive winds for this area is CANCELLED.

Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:50 pm.

Pollyana

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERBERT RIVERIssued at 9:59 pm EST on Wednesday 23 January 2013 by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

Rainfall totals of up to 227mm have been recorded in the Herbert River catchment since 9am Wednesday.
Minor flood levels continue to rise in the upper Herbert River and are expected to continue rising as rainfall continues. Major flood levels are expected in the lower Herbert River between Trebonne and Gairloch during Thursday morning.
Higher river levels are possible as the rainfall is forecast to continue for at least the next 24 hours, which may worsen the existing flood situation.
Predicted River Heights/Flows:
Abergowrie Bridge: Moderate flood levels are rising but are expected to remain below the major flood level.

Ingham Pump Station: Reach around 13 metres (1 metre above major flood level) early Thursday morning.

Gairloch: Reach around 11.5 metres (major flood level) early Thursday morning.

Halifax: Reach around 5.4 metres (0.4 metres above major flood level) early Thursday morning.

Pollyana

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TULLY AND MURRAY RIVERS Issued at 10:04 pm EST on Wednesday 23 January 2013 by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

Rainfall totals of between 60-120mm have been recorded across the Tully and Murray catchments since 9am Wednesday. However the heavy rain has eased since this afternoon.

River levels are easing along the upper reaches of the Tully River, with minor flooding easing at Bolinda Estate. However moderate flooding continues to slowly rise on the floodplain at Euramo, where a flood peak is expected to reach near the major flood level (9.0 metres) during the early hours of Thursday morning.

River levels are also easing in the upper Murray River. Major flooding continues to slowly rise on the floodplain at Murray Flats, where a flood peak is expected during the early hours of Thursday morning.

Higher river levels are possible as the heavy rainfall is forecast to continue for at least the next 24 hours, which may worsen the existing flood situation.
Predicted River Heights/Flows:
Tully River at:

Euramo: Reach near 9.0 metres (major flood level) overnight Wednesday.
Higher levels are possible as rainfall continues.


Murray River at:

Murray Flats: Further small rises above the major flood level (8.0 metres) overnight Wednesday. Higher levels are possible as rainfall continues.

Pollyana

FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL RIVERS AND ADJACENT STREAMS BETWEEN COOKTOWN AND MACKAY Issued at 9:45 pm EST on Wednesday 23 January 2013 by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

Rainfall totals recorded since 9am Wednesday have been between 50-225mm across the North Tropical Coast and further south to the Whitsundays area. The heaviest rainfall remains in the area between Ingham and Ayr. Further heavy rainfall is forecast for Thursday and the next few days, with localised totals of 200-300mm possible each day. The heavy rain will extend south to the Mackay area overnight and during Thursday.

Fast river and creek rises are expected with the bands of heavy rain within the coastal rivers and streams between Cooktown and Mackay.
A severe weather warning for heavy rainfall is current for the warning area.

Separate flood warnings are current for the Tully and Murray Rivers, and the Lower Herbert River. Warnings for other catchments will be issued if required.

Daintree River: Minor flooding is occurring at Daintree Village.

Barron River: Minor flooding continues to slowly ease at Bolton Road on the Clohesy River. River level rises further downstream along the Barron River continue to remain below minor at this stage.

Mulgrave River: Minor flood levels are easing at The Fisheries, whilst river levels downstream at Peets Bridge and at Gordonvale have eased below minor.

Russell River: River levels have eased below minor at Bucklands, whilst minor flooding continues downstream at Clyde Road.

Johnstone River: River levels continue to generally ease across the catchment.
At this stage river levels in the Johnstone River at Innisfail are not expected to exceed the minor flood level (5.0 metres).

Bohle River: River rises are occurring, with minor flooding rising at Hervey Range Road.

Townsville area: Minor flooding occurring at Stuart Creek.
Weather Forecast:
For the latest weather information see: www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts

Next Issue:
The next warning will be issued by 5:30am Thursday.







http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

Pollyana

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALLFor people in the Peninsula, Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin, Central Coast and Whitsundays and parts of the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, Central Highlands and Coalfields and Capricornia Forecast Districts.

Issued at 11:58 pm Wednesday, 23 January 2013.
Synoptic Situation:

At 11pm, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was situated approximately 80km west of Cairns and was moving in a south southeast direction at about 11 kilometres per hour. The monsoon trough extended from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald to the Queensland east coast near Innisfail to near Bundaberg. Damaging winds, with gusts to 90 km/hr,are possible north and east of a line from Torres Strait to Georgetown to Mackay. Locations which may be affected include Lockhart River, Cooktown, Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail, Townsville, Bowen and the Whitsunday Islands.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely east of a line from Cooktown to Georgetown to Yeppoon during Thursday. Six hour rainfall accumulations of 100 to 200 mm are possible. This heavy rain may also worsen the existing flood situation across parts of north Queensland. Locations which may be affected include Port Douglas, Cairns, Mareeba, Innisfail, Townsville, Bowen, Charters Towers, Proserpine, Mackay and Sarina.

=================================


This weather system, ex-TC OSwald, is expected to contimue to move south down the Queensland coast bringing very heavy rainfall wth it. At present it is expected to have an impact at least as far south ast he Sunshine COast and maybe down to Brisbane or the NSW border.

SillyOldBag

It's been a very windy night and we have no power since 4 ish? I'm not sure, I heard my friend and her boys kerfuffling outside but decided the best policy was to turn over and go back to sleep A branch has come off a tree and it looks like it's just missed my car - I'm not ready for bad news yet as I've not had a cup of tea so I'm just hoping that it didn't hit it but I'm not game enough to look!

Pollyana

Ceratianly been wild up there, rivers rising to record heights in places too, and lots of roads cut.

Mackay is likely to cop it late tonight or tomorrow - anyone who remembers the floods there in 2008 - we could be talking about that amount of water there again

SillyOldBag

Power is back thank goodness - I need my tea! Downside is that because of flooding on the roads and stuff, the load hasn't arrived at work so my shift has been cancelled - wahhhhhhhh! And it's too late to cancel vacation care for youngSOB so I still have to pay for that and it's an excursion day to the cinema so it's an expensive one - d'oh!! On the plus side at least I get a day off Either the wind is rising again or there are ghosts outside now as I hear lots of woooooooooooooooooo

I remember reading about the Mackay floods - hopefully they won't cop it so bad this time

Pollyana

Still plenty of wind around - its slowly moving south but only slowly and there's a lot of wind and rain in there yet. going to be a wild day all along the coast I think.

I've been watching flood gauges all night, I shall have nightmares about drowning I expect
Back in tonight for another round which hopefully will not involve a deluge in Mackay (or anywhere else) - gonna be a busy week.

The Bruce is likely to be shut a few days at least in various places and the trains are off so not sure when your supplies will get through......
And ABC are saying Authorities are also warning drivers that crocodiles are turning up in floodwaters along northern sections of the Bruce Highway.