Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

I thought it might be interesting at this time to reflect on Eric's original post that kicked off this interesting thread (cheers Eric lots of reads and loads of posts):

History for sure was made - biggest ever default, first first world country to default on IMF loans etc etc.

No one has yet said what the ideas for change actually were and no one seems to have acknowledged anything unless I am missing something?

I disagreed with Eric when he wrote that they had made a good start and on reflection it seems the answer depends on the context (realative or absolute). I.E. in absolute terms their start was extremely poor gusting inept; however, if you consider their start relative to their subsequent performance, then Eric was spot on and it was a good start relatively speaking.

I don't think it turned out the way Eric (or indeed I) was hoping for. It certainly hasn't led to a change of approach or relief for other bailed out nations who, in fact, have been among the strongest opponents of the Syriza approach.

A brighter future for Europe later on? Nope for sure - I think we all agree the credibility of Europe and the EZ in particular has been badly damaged by the whole debacle and that is not just Syriza's fault but the EZ, IMF, Commission as well.

If Tipsy can get the harshest ever austerity package through his Parliament it will just be more extend and pretend i.e. nothing has fundamentally changed. If not GREXIT beckons and that will be history in the making.....

Bottom line remains that other than vigourously opposing austerity and trying the "Blazing Saddles Sherrif Gambit" on GREXIT, I am not sure what Syriza's new ideas actually were. Anyone?

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

Perahps they will be faithless partners. Perhaps not. It makes no difference as what the Commission has made them promise is not mathematically possible. If they achieve that two percent fiscal surplus, they will run a budget deficit. Instituting automatic spending cuts if the budget surplus is not achieved just compounds the problems of the last five years. They were bankrupt seven years ago. They were bankrupt five years ago. They are bankrupt now. And they will be bankrupt on whatever time scale is chosen.

This is absolutely insane. If one nation above all should know that there is a limit to the amount you can siphon out of a country without social economic and political anarchy it is Germany. The Saar should be an awful warning of the stupidity of the EU asset stripping of Greece.
If there is one country above all that does indeed come out as the big bad wolf it is Germany. Germany made an explicit compact with Europe in exchange for Europes support for reunification to give up the DMark and support the Euro. And to continue the massive financial support they needed for reunification - something that seems to have been conveniently forgotten. As the costs of reunification threatened to swamp Germany, Lamfalussy and then Duisenberg colluded with the Bundesbank to reduce interest rates across Europe (with the agreement of Delors and Santer). And it is the relict of that low interest rate policy that has bedevilled Europe (and the world) ever since. All of Europe shared that cost, wittingly or unwittingly.
If Germany is indeed bent on renouncing its part of that compact, does that mean they will abandon the other part? Or is it rather that having got all they wanted they see no reason to respect the wishes or needs of others any longer.
I am absolutely horrified at German conduct. I studied there, worked there and lived there. I love Germany and have numerous German friends.
This is indeed the end of Europe. But it is brought about by the one nation I never thought would. A terrible day, truly terrible.

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

I don't know why people keep mentioning Germany, because German people were never really better off with the Euro. There's always someone to blame (politicians, banks) and it's sad that the young people in Greece have to suffer now. It's shocking how much money some pensioners in Greece were getting and still are (especially public sector). One man was complaining that his pension dropped from €3.500 to €1.500, while more than 50% of pensioners in Germany only have around €750.

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

Re Biggles' post :


:goodpost:


We certainly don't see eye to eye on everything but that is one of very few posts on this thread that I can find myself agreeing wholeheartedly with, the others also having been posted by you, Biggles.


Not nations - governments. There is plenty of vocal opposition in Portugal to the treatment of Greece by the rest of the EZ and particularly by our own representatives.

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

Oh, there's plenty of blame to go around. Lest we not forget;

First, when Greece was borne into the EU (under dubious pretenses - openly facilitated by the young, eager, idealistic Eurocrat family), he started a party. And it lasted until daddy's credit card got maxed out and they couldn't hide it any longer.

Now a bit older and wiser, Daddy Eurocrat is faced with paying for it all, but Daddy (rightfully) is saying, "You're gonna pay for it by working your arse off - and goddamit, I don't care if it takes forever!".

The problem is, junior simply can't pay for it. And daddy's demands are only serving to drive junior into a bleak future. But Daddy is hell-bent on teaching junior a lesson so that sister and brother Eurocrat don't get any of the same ideas.

And that's how paternal governing works. Goddam irresponsible kids! Stupid parents won't pay my bills for me! It's an adversarial relationship.

But we're all a big happy family, aren't we?

"No, dad, you suck."
"Shut up, you worthless little twit, or you'll be grounded for another year."

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

And the maximum UK State Pension is around €700 if I recall correctly

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

Ok you are being a tad pedantic but you are entirely correct - I accept your point; however, I think everyone knew what I meant.....

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

A trade surplus of over 8 percent of GDP?

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

Anyone got any idea what Greece can sell for 50 billion?

What do they have that is going to be worth that much in a fire sale environment?

Are they going to sell some islands to Turkey maybe?

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

Nothing unusual and the same here in Ireland, it goes up and it goes down. Fact is that the pizza used to cost 4DM and then it was suddenly €4, while wages staid the same for most people. Like in any country the gap between rich and poor is increasing, but to blame Germany alone is just wrong.

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

They don't need to sell anything. Just build a Las Vegas in Greece:nod:

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

:rofl: I think they have already overdone the reckless gambling bit

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

I was there in 2001 when the DM switched to Euro. At the time, the Deutschmark was roughly 2 to the Euro (50c). Despite all assurances that there would be no inflation, that very morning, the supermarkets had priced what was previously 1DM at 1€. There were a few protests at first, but it all eventually died out. Brick and mortar values were pretty evenly converted to Euro, so nobody lost or gained on property values. It was retail prices that doubled.

By about 2004, things were getting dicey. People had to cut back, and standards of living dwindled. Unemployment started to rise, property prices stagnated or went south. I left soon afterward, not because of the economy, but I'd just had it with German rigidness. Spain was a breath of fresh air in that regard. And cheap, too.

Now, Germany is doing well again. They seem to have adapted to Euro economics, standard of living has rebounded, unemployment is low, and all things seem pretty peachy compared to other regions of Europe. It's still just as rigid, however.

And there's plenty of blame to go around. There's been a party going on in Greece since they joined. But the credit card went well over the limit some time back. Party's over. Now somebody's gotta pay. Naturally, not the Greeks... They were just minding their own business when...

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

With all respect I would suggest that there is a vast difference between the worlds second or third largest exporter running abtrade surplus of that order and a small nation.
Certainly the OECD and the BIS find it concerning, to say the least. China which was much attacked for its overtly mercantilist export policy when it exceeded 6 percent, now runs a surplus of about 2 or 3 percent.
The underlying point is that in that respect trade is a zero sum game. For Germany to run a trade surplus of that magnitude, hosts of smaller nations must run deficits. And for a fully developed European nation to do so, in the most blatant breach of the Maastricht criteria, is indefensible.

Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
 

I got it the wrong way around then, It was reported on RAI TV that Germany, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania had gone against Greece. Propaganda again. (Just not a complete list)
They just came through with the lastest Italian public debt figures for May 2015, (ISTAT). 2218 Billion. 3.9% of GDP ? On target for 8% unless the Masterchef kicks in and the figures disappear for some months only to miraculously reappear in the black.....