Road to a Grecian turn?
#556
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
#558
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Banks and stock exchange closed tomorrow, growing support in Greece to accept the terms rather than leave the EU.
Obama and Merkel calling for radical reforms in Greece.
Obama and Merkel calling for radical reforms in Greece.
#559
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Funnily enough, so are Syriza - very pro reform, they are. That's why they were elected. Anti austerity, though - not that you'd know it from their last proposal, which had lashings of it. I think the creditors made a very bad mistake not closing a deal on that.
#560
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Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Syrizia are definitely anti-austerity but don't seem to have suggested any real reforms that will help correct the situation. Their idea of reforms seems to be solidarity donations from the other countries without conditions, which has been rejected for some reason. Varoufakis, who clearly inhabits a parallel reality, finds this rejection illogical...
It's a complete mess that highlights the fundamental flaws of the EZ design and the gross ineptitude of Syriza. No one is coming out of this with any credit.
#561
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
There was no cunning plan to leave the EZ or the EU. You only need to read Varoufakis' blog to understand that and to understand why it would be terrible for Greece. It contains his thoughts and comments going back years. Tsipras relies on and entirely trusts Varoufakis' judgement on such matters.
The Greek government have proposed a plan which contains any amount of reform - much of it in the MOU still awaiting execution due to previous governments' failure to implement it. They have also offered up reforms of their own in exchange for those they thought inappropriate or unhelpful to the Greek economy.
There are no donations - there are loans, with interest. As things stand, those are unpayable. Something needs to be done to change that and cutting pensions doesn't solve anything - in fact it would exacerbate Greece's problems, however satisfying it might seem to the creditors and the citizens of other countries. Despite this, the Greek government offered to make thinly disguised cuts to pensions currently in payment in the form of "health contributions" or similar in a major effort to both reach an agreement with the creditors and get something they could sell to the parliament and the electorate.
They have never said or done anything to suggest they want money without conditions. On the contrary, in fact - they're happy to be measured against the conditions imposed provided the deal is workable. Varoufakis has gone so far as to say he would sign a deal he disagrees with as long as he can agree the numbers add up but that he draws the line where they don't.
Syriza (or perhaps we should more properly call them the Greek coalition government) have proved themselves far from inept. They have been in government for several months and have kept up the payments on debts as well as paying salaries and pensions whilst simultaneously being pressured by all means - legitimate or otherwise - into accepting a deal that would be bad not only for Greece but ultimately for all of Europe. Despite the difficulties and uncertainty this has caused because of the conflict with the creditors, their popularity in the polls has increased, rather than diminished.
The purpose of the negotiations from the other side has clearly been to destabilise the Greek government, to get it to resign or to discredit it to the point where it would have to admit defeat or call an election. They miscalculated - the Greek population are more firmly behind their new government now than they were in January.
I think the creditors shot themselves in the foot - they could have had a deal with this government that would have been deeply unsavoury for the Greek people (what's your take on the government's "extremism" now?) It'll be interesting to see if they try to backtrack by offering something better and whether that would be conditional on withdrawal of the referendum option. My guess is that whatever they do, the Greek leaders now insist on a referendum (they wouldn't want to be called out as liars, after all).
I think the US involvement, current stance and significance has been misread by some posters on this thread.
Responses in red will not be appreciated. Black and white, not embedded in a quote of this post, will do fine. Thankyou.
The Greek government have proposed a plan which contains any amount of reform - much of it in the MOU still awaiting execution due to previous governments' failure to implement it. They have also offered up reforms of their own in exchange for those they thought inappropriate or unhelpful to the Greek economy.
There are no donations - there are loans, with interest. As things stand, those are unpayable. Something needs to be done to change that and cutting pensions doesn't solve anything - in fact it would exacerbate Greece's problems, however satisfying it might seem to the creditors and the citizens of other countries. Despite this, the Greek government offered to make thinly disguised cuts to pensions currently in payment in the form of "health contributions" or similar in a major effort to both reach an agreement with the creditors and get something they could sell to the parliament and the electorate.
They have never said or done anything to suggest they want money without conditions. On the contrary, in fact - they're happy to be measured against the conditions imposed provided the deal is workable. Varoufakis has gone so far as to say he would sign a deal he disagrees with as long as he can agree the numbers add up but that he draws the line where they don't.
Syriza (or perhaps we should more properly call them the Greek coalition government) have proved themselves far from inept. They have been in government for several months and have kept up the payments on debts as well as paying salaries and pensions whilst simultaneously being pressured by all means - legitimate or otherwise - into accepting a deal that would be bad not only for Greece but ultimately for all of Europe. Despite the difficulties and uncertainty this has caused because of the conflict with the creditors, their popularity in the polls has increased, rather than diminished.
The purpose of the negotiations from the other side has clearly been to destabilise the Greek government, to get it to resign or to discredit it to the point where it would have to admit defeat or call an election. They miscalculated - the Greek population are more firmly behind their new government now than they were in January.
I think the creditors shot themselves in the foot - they could have had a deal with this government that would have been deeply unsavoury for the Greek people (what's your take on the government's "extremism" now?) It'll be interesting to see if they try to backtrack by offering something better and whether that would be conditional on withdrawal of the referendum option. My guess is that whatever they do, the Greek leaders now insist on a referendum (they wouldn't want to be called out as liars, after all).
I think the US involvement, current stance and significance has been misread by some posters on this thread.
Responses in red will not be appreciated. Black and white, not embedded in a quote of this post, will do fine. Thankyou.
#562
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,290
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
There was no cunning plan to leave the EZ or the EU. You only need to read Varoufakis' blog to understand that and to understand why it would be terrible for Greece. It contains his thoughts and comments going back years. Tsipras relies on and entirely trusts Varoufakis' judgement on such matters. Varoufakis the master of uncertainty and deception is hardly a reliable source....
The Greek government have proposed a plan which contains any amount of reform - much of it in the MOU still awaiting execution due to previous governments' failure to implement it. They have also offered up reforms of their own in exchange for those they thought inappropriate or unhelpful to the Greek economy. no it doesn't - that is the issue
There are no donations - there are loans, with interest. As things stand, those are unpayable. Something needs to be done to change that and cutting pensions doesn't solve anything - in fact it would exacerbate Greece's problems, however satisfying it might seem to the creditors and the citizens of other countries. Despite this, the Greek government offered to make thinly disguised cuts to pensions currently in payment in the form of "health contributions" or similar in a major effort to both reach an agreement with the creditors and get something they could sell to the parliament and the electorate. they made no effort to cut the overspending, indeed they increased spending and proposed tax rises
They have never said or done anything to suggest they want money without conditions. On the contrary, in fact - they're happy to be measured against the conditions imposed provided the deal is workable. Varoufakis has gone so far as to say he would sign a deal he disagrees with as long as he can agree the numbers add up but that he draws the line where they don't. and the numbers add up when he says they do = donation
Syriza (or perhaps we should more properly call them the Greek coalition government) have proved themselves far from inept. they are widely considered to be even more inept than the Troika which is some going They have been in government for several months and have kept up the payments on debts as well as paying salaries and pensions whilst simultaneously being pressured by all means - legitimate or otherwise - into accepting a deal that would be bad not only for Greece but ultimately for all of Europe. Despite the difficulties and uncertainty this has caused because of the conflict with the creditors, their popularity in the polls has increased, rather than diminished they have faked a primary surplus to try and create the illusion of economic competence. The polls also want them to stay in the EZ and they have cynically tried to get expelled.
The purpose of the negotiations from the other side has clearly been to destabilise the Greek government, to get it to resign or to discredit it to the point where it would have to admit defeat or call an election. They miscalculated - the Greek population are more firmly behind their new government now than they were in January.the creditors tried but with an imbecile focused on constructive ambiguity were up against it, the people do not support the Syriza aim of leaving the Euro
I think the creditors shot themselves in the foot - they could have had a deal with this government that would have been deeply unsavoury for the Greek people (what's your take on the government's "extremism" now?) It'll be interesting to see if they try to backtrack by offering something better and whether that would be conditional on withdrawal of the referendum option. My guess is that whatever they do, the Greek leaders now insist on a referendum (they wouldn't want to be called out as liars, after all).Syriza shot themselves in the foot hence the banks are closed - inepitude
I think the US involvement, current stance and significance has been misread by some posters on this thread. you may be right there
Responses in red will not be appreciated. Black and white, not embedded in a quote of this post, will do fine. Thankyou.
The Greek government have proposed a plan which contains any amount of reform - much of it in the MOU still awaiting execution due to previous governments' failure to implement it. They have also offered up reforms of their own in exchange for those they thought inappropriate or unhelpful to the Greek economy. no it doesn't - that is the issue
There are no donations - there are loans, with interest. As things stand, those are unpayable. Something needs to be done to change that and cutting pensions doesn't solve anything - in fact it would exacerbate Greece's problems, however satisfying it might seem to the creditors and the citizens of other countries. Despite this, the Greek government offered to make thinly disguised cuts to pensions currently in payment in the form of "health contributions" or similar in a major effort to both reach an agreement with the creditors and get something they could sell to the parliament and the electorate. they made no effort to cut the overspending, indeed they increased spending and proposed tax rises
They have never said or done anything to suggest they want money without conditions. On the contrary, in fact - they're happy to be measured against the conditions imposed provided the deal is workable. Varoufakis has gone so far as to say he would sign a deal he disagrees with as long as he can agree the numbers add up but that he draws the line where they don't. and the numbers add up when he says they do = donation
Syriza (or perhaps we should more properly call them the Greek coalition government) have proved themselves far from inept. they are widely considered to be even more inept than the Troika which is some going They have been in government for several months and have kept up the payments on debts as well as paying salaries and pensions whilst simultaneously being pressured by all means - legitimate or otherwise - into accepting a deal that would be bad not only for Greece but ultimately for all of Europe. Despite the difficulties and uncertainty this has caused because of the conflict with the creditors, their popularity in the polls has increased, rather than diminished they have faked a primary surplus to try and create the illusion of economic competence. The polls also want them to stay in the EZ and they have cynically tried to get expelled.
The purpose of the negotiations from the other side has clearly been to destabilise the Greek government, to get it to resign or to discredit it to the point where it would have to admit defeat or call an election. They miscalculated - the Greek population are more firmly behind their new government now than they were in January.the creditors tried but with an imbecile focused on constructive ambiguity were up against it, the people do not support the Syriza aim of leaving the Euro
I think the creditors shot themselves in the foot - they could have had a deal with this government that would have been deeply unsavoury for the Greek people (what's your take on the government's "extremism" now?) It'll be interesting to see if they try to backtrack by offering something better and whether that would be conditional on withdrawal of the referendum option. My guess is that whatever they do, the Greek leaders now insist on a referendum (they wouldn't want to be called out as liars, after all).Syriza shot themselves in the foot hence the banks are closed - inepitude
I think the US involvement, current stance and significance has been misread by some posters on this thread. you may be right there
Responses in red will not be appreciated. Black and white, not embedded in a quote of this post, will do fine. Thankyou.
#563
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Just on this particular issue - it doesn't work better.
In other threads members often highlight in red the actual points in the quoted text they are replying to so what you are doing , Mike, makes it look more like it was Eric who wrote these comments (which I wish he had ).
Site Rule 18
In other threads members often highlight in red the actual points in the quoted text they are replying to so what you are doing , Mike, makes it look more like it was Eric who wrote these comments (which I wish he had ).
Site Rule 18
Last edited by InVinoVeritas; Jun 29th 2015 at 12:18 am.
#564
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
There was no cunning plan to leave the EZ or the EU. You only need to read Varoufakis' blog to understand that and to understand why it would be terrible for Greece. It contains his thoughts and comments going back years. Tsipras relies on and entirely trusts Varoufakis' judgement on such matters.
The Greek government have proposed a plan which contains any amount of reform - much of it in the MOU still awaiting execution due to previous governments' failure to implement it. They have also offered up reforms of their own in exchange for those they thought inappropriate or unhelpful to the Greek economy.
There are no donations - there are loans, with interest. As things stand, those are unpayable. Something needs to be done to change that and cutting pensions doesn't solve anything - in fact it would exacerbate Greece's problems, however satisfying it might seem to the creditors and the citizens of other countries. Despite this, the Greek government offered to make thinly disguised cuts to pensions currently in payment in the form of "health contributions" or similar in a major effort to both reach an agreement with the creditors and get something they could sell to the parliament and the electorate.
They have never said or done anything to suggest they want money without conditions. On the contrary, in fact - they're happy to be measured against the conditions imposed provided the deal is workable. Varoufakis has gone so far as to say he would sign a deal he disagrees with as long as he can agree the numbers add up but that he draws the line where they don't.
Syriza (or perhaps we should more properly call them the Greek coalition government) have proved themselves far from inept. They have been in government for several months and have kept up the payments on debts as well as paying salaries and pensions whilst simultaneously being pressured by all means - legitimate or otherwise - into accepting a deal that would be bad not only for Greece but ultimately for all of Europe. Despite the difficulties and uncertainty this has caused because of the conflict with the creditors, their popularity in the polls has increased, rather than diminished.
The purpose of the negotiations from the other side has clearly been to destabilise the Greek government, to get it to resign or to discredit it to the point where it would have to admit defeat or call an election. They miscalculated - the Greek population are more firmly behind their new government now than they were in January.
I think the creditors shot themselves in the foot - they could have had a deal with this government that would have been deeply unsavoury for the Greek people (what's your take on the government's "extremism" now?) It'll be interesting to see if they try to backtrack by offering something better and whether that would be conditional on withdrawal of the referendum option. My guess is that whatever they do, the Greek leaders now insist on a referendum (they wouldn't want to be called out as liars, after all).
I think the US involvement, current stance and significance has been misread by some posters on this thread.
Responses in red will not be appreciated. Black and white, not embedded in a quote of this post, will do fine. Thankyou.
The Greek government have proposed a plan which contains any amount of reform - much of it in the MOU still awaiting execution due to previous governments' failure to implement it. They have also offered up reforms of their own in exchange for those they thought inappropriate or unhelpful to the Greek economy.
There are no donations - there are loans, with interest. As things stand, those are unpayable. Something needs to be done to change that and cutting pensions doesn't solve anything - in fact it would exacerbate Greece's problems, however satisfying it might seem to the creditors and the citizens of other countries. Despite this, the Greek government offered to make thinly disguised cuts to pensions currently in payment in the form of "health contributions" or similar in a major effort to both reach an agreement with the creditors and get something they could sell to the parliament and the electorate.
They have never said or done anything to suggest they want money without conditions. On the contrary, in fact - they're happy to be measured against the conditions imposed provided the deal is workable. Varoufakis has gone so far as to say he would sign a deal he disagrees with as long as he can agree the numbers add up but that he draws the line where they don't.
Syriza (or perhaps we should more properly call them the Greek coalition government) have proved themselves far from inept. They have been in government for several months and have kept up the payments on debts as well as paying salaries and pensions whilst simultaneously being pressured by all means - legitimate or otherwise - into accepting a deal that would be bad not only for Greece but ultimately for all of Europe. Despite the difficulties and uncertainty this has caused because of the conflict with the creditors, their popularity in the polls has increased, rather than diminished.
The purpose of the negotiations from the other side has clearly been to destabilise the Greek government, to get it to resign or to discredit it to the point where it would have to admit defeat or call an election. They miscalculated - the Greek population are more firmly behind their new government now than they were in January.
I think the creditors shot themselves in the foot - they could have had a deal with this government that would have been deeply unsavoury for the Greek people (what's your take on the government's "extremism" now?) It'll be interesting to see if they try to backtrack by offering something better and whether that would be conditional on withdrawal of the referendum option. My guess is that whatever they do, the Greek leaders now insist on a referendum (they wouldn't want to be called out as liars, after all).
I think the US involvement, current stance and significance has been misread by some posters on this thread.
Responses in red will not be appreciated. Black and white, not embedded in a quote of this post, will do fine. Thankyou.
It has been clear to me that from very early on that we would end up at this point although it has taken longer to get here than I thought.
Why did I think that? It's not at all complicated. Syriza was elected on a promise it could never fulfil. They may not be the first political party in history to do that but they are the first with a leadership who have absolutely no experience of politics.
They have proved to be utterly incompetent in the negotiations and utterly unrealistic in their expectations of what could be achieved and when.
They tried to bully, cajole and berate the not-troika rather than to engage their own people in the debate.
They have lied to, misrepresented or failed to communicate with their electorate.
Unlike you, Eric, I'm not sure the Greek people will support them in the referendum. It is why the EU has taken the highly unusual step of releasing the MoU so that the Greek people can actually see what was on offer, because I am sure they did not know before.
My hope is for a yes vote and new elections. The EU will not trust a Tsipras or Varoufakis to sign an agreement they do not believe in because it will never be implemented.
#566
Polished expat
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Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 16,820
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Varoufakis took the step of publishing the last offer the Greeks had made to the creditors in full, so that is now public knowledge.
It is clear that debt relief was not part of the deal in the ultimatum from the creditors. I was interested, therefore, to read this just now :-
The European commission said on Sunday for the first time in the crisis that it wanted to offer Greece debt relief, Tsipras’s central demand during the five months of stalemated talks. Reports from Berlin said that Angela Merkel and François Hollande shared that view.
But the potential concession appeared to come too late to prevent growing chaos in Greece – and sparked concerns across the Atlantic. Barack Obama was said to have called Merkel to urge her to take action. Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary, urged creditors to offer debt relief to Greece.
#567
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,290
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Just on this particular issue - it doesn't work better.
In other threads members often highlight in red the actual points in the quoted text they are replying to so what you are doing , Mike, makes it look more like it was Eric who wrote these comments (which I wish he had ).
Site Rule 18
In other threads members often highlight in red the actual points in the quoted text they are replying to so what you are doing , Mike, makes it look more like it was Eric who wrote these comments (which I wish he had ).
Site Rule 18
I see Obama and Merkel have called for Greece to return to the path of reform and It is difficult not to agree with them, we are well beyond the time to stop the brainless posturing and start on the reform process. (PS: for clarity's sake Spend Spend Spend Tax Tax Tax is not reform ).
As a thought, appointing Varoufakis as Finance Minister given the problems facing Greece was probably the worse judged public service appointment since Caesar Augustus made Herod the Great the Chief of Child Protection in Judea in 0001BC.....
#568
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,290
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I have to say I disagree with your analysis, Eric, at just about every level.
It has been clear to me that from very early on that we would end up at this point although it has taken longer to get here than I thought.
Why did I think that? It's not at all complicated. Syriza was elected on a promise it could never fulfil. They may not be the first political party in history to do that but they are the first with a leadership who have absolutely no experience of politics.
They have proved to be utterly incompetent in the negotiations and utterly unrealistic in their expectations of what could be achieved and when.
They tried to bully, cajole and berate the not-troika rather than to engage their own people in the debate.
They have lied to, misrepresented or failed to communicate with their electorate.
Unlike you, Eric, I'm not sure the Greek people will support them in the referendum. It is why the EU has taken the highly unusual step of releasing the MoU so that the Greek people can actually see what was on offer, because I am sure they did not know before.
My hope is for a yes vote and new elections. The EU will not trust a Tsipras or Varoufakis to sign an agreement they do not believe in because it will never be implemented.
It has been clear to me that from very early on that we would end up at this point although it has taken longer to get here than I thought.
Why did I think that? It's not at all complicated. Syriza was elected on a promise it could never fulfil. They may not be the first political party in history to do that but they are the first with a leadership who have absolutely no experience of politics.
They have proved to be utterly incompetent in the negotiations and utterly unrealistic in their expectations of what could be achieved and when.
They tried to bully, cajole and berate the not-troika rather than to engage their own people in the debate.
They have lied to, misrepresented or failed to communicate with their electorate.
Unlike you, Eric, I'm not sure the Greek people will support them in the referendum. It is why the EU has taken the highly unusual step of releasing the MoU so that the Greek people can actually see what was on offer, because I am sure they did not know before.
My hope is for a yes vote and new elections. The EU will not trust a Tsipras or Varoufakis to sign an agreement they do not believe in because it will never be implemented.
I think you hit 2 very important points here. Firstly, there is no doubt that Tipsy has been misrepresenting the deal to the People/Parliament hence it was imperative to release the offer so that the Greek people know what they are voting for i,e, to remove the demagoguery from the referendum process .
Secondly, you can't trust Tipsy and Fakeit to run a bath based on their record of being economical with the truth. That is why the Troika will want to see legislation passed in Parliament before gifting more money. It is very easy to lose trust but then it is subsequently very hard to win it back. The crass bufoonery of Fakeit and Tipsy during the standoff has forfeited all trust and it will take time and action to grow trust, which is the first thing that needs to grow if anything is to move forward.
The Troika are only a little better btw as I don't trust them either.
#569
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
What was "on offer" was shrouded in secrecy and the Greek representatives were forbidden from talking about it. Selective leaking from the other side means that some details were known.
Varoufakis took the step of publishing the last offer the Greeks had made to the creditors in full, so that is now public knowledge.
It is clear that debt relief was not part of the deal in the ultimatum from the creditors. I was interested, therefore, to read this just now :-
The European commission said on Sunday for the first time in the crisis that it wanted to offer Greece debt relief, Tsipras’s central demand during the five months of stalemated talks. Reports from Berlin said that Angela Merkel and François Hollande shared that view.
But the potential concession appeared to come too late to prevent growing chaos in Greece – and sparked concerns across the Atlantic. Barack Obama was said to have called Merkel to urge her to take action. Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary, urged creditors to offer debt relief to Greece.
Varoufakis took the step of publishing the last offer the Greeks had made to the creditors in full, so that is now public knowledge.
It is clear that debt relief was not part of the deal in the ultimatum from the creditors. I was interested, therefore, to read this just now :-
The European commission said on Sunday for the first time in the crisis that it wanted to offer Greece debt relief, Tsipras’s central demand during the five months of stalemated talks. Reports from Berlin said that Angela Merkel and François Hollande shared that view.
But the potential concession appeared to come too late to prevent growing chaos in Greece – and sparked concerns across the Atlantic. Barack Obama was said to have called Merkel to urge her to take action. Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary, urged creditors to offer debt relief to Greece.
Eric, referring to an earlier post of mine, I suspect the USA has been pressing for debt relief all along. Geithner in those leaked extracts was clearly stupefied? dumbfounded? aghast? that the Troika had ruled that out.
You don't even need primary school arithmetic to see that Greece can never and will never repay the outstanding debts.
I do not see any blameless parties. The Commission has done what it always does - exactly what it wants and devil take the hindmost. Greece has seriously overplayed its hand and clearly needs to cut its spending - (but still has to feed its citizens and has been scr*wed to the wall by the insistence that the banks be repaid). The banks should have been haircut at the very least and the senior exectuives in charge of the Greek book fired. And Lagarde and Strauss Kahn should be sacked for destroying the credibility of the IMF in blatant politicking.
I would like to tar and feather the lot of them
#570
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Latest polls show the Greek people are not behind their government at all. The pollsters say 60% are in favour of accepting a deal with the EU. The real problem is organising the referendum. Syriza have not shown themselves to be very capable on that front!