Charismatic

Even if they don't make the payment on the 9th they have another 30 days before they go into default.

However it seems likely to me Greece will meet it's IMF obligations on the 9th as the amount is only €448m. However there are a number of other upcoming payments in April for Greece may not navigate without an additional tranche of funds.

Garbatellamike

yep

Garbatellamike

good news today - Syrizia have calculated that Germany owes Greece 279 billion: therefore no more Greek debt issues - job done.

InVinoVeritas

In 2000, the Greek Supreme Court ruled that Germany should pay €28 million. Even with inflation how do we get to €278bn? Seems to be Syriza's negotiating style - ask for something absurd in the hope of getting something more. Like the threat of letting 3,500 asylum seekers out on the street instead of asking for EC aid to house them. Like auditing their own debt to see if the EC lent them money illegally or the troika failed to respect their human rights obligation. Now I guess they will negotiate with Russia to lease their ports in return for cheap gas. Even if the EC does move to help it's going to leave a mighty bad taste in the mouth for a very long time.

Charismatic

To be honest the Irish might have a good case against the British, perhaps even the British against the Scandinavian Norse?

The war is done long over with.

Garbatellamike

I see their latest wheeze is to establish a Parlimentary Committee to declare large amounts of their debt to the EU/ECB as illegal and, therefore, abolish it immediately! This new act of economic brilliance, coupled with the Germans paying them a few hundred billion makes Greece the most prosperous country this side of Qatar! Job done!


You cannot but wonder what madness will they come up with next?

However, I see the idea to use IOU's as a parallel internal currency to avoid exiting the Eurozone is gathering considerable steam now in Greece (and to a lesser degree in the markets). This is, I assess, what Varoufakis always intended (although I sense he wanted the rest of the periphery to join his new "not-Euro but denominated in euros" currency and he spectacularly failed to gain any support outside Greece).

"May you live in interesting times!" and "Beware of Greeks bearing insubstantial finacial proposals!" were never more apt.

InVinoVeritas

There is another wheeze that Greece has been up to get their hands on desperately-needed Euros:-

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/08/bu...debt.html?_r=0

Bailout funds not only hidden from Greek voters but from Europe's voters too!

bigglesworth

Crikey, that does not look good. There is toxic and then there's toxic!

Garbatellamike

Yes Biggles exactly right and if there is a run on the Banks concerned this will quickly go from toxic to disasterous.

Unless the current Greek Government has a sudden outbreak of sanity they will soon need to put capital controls to avoid further deposit flight. It seems to me that the Orthodox Easter (I think it is this coming weekend) would be the best opportunity to freeze bank accounts whilst they transfer to "not-Euro IOUs" or rebirth the Drachma.

Red Eric

By which you obviously mean signing up to more of exactly the kind of insane austerity which has well and truly mucked their economy since 2010. That way the remaining bailout funds will be released and the economy will be once again further depressed, leading to the need for more of the same.

Garbatellamike

No I don't Eric. To be frank that is a quite ridiculous assertion, please don't try and invent things I have not said.

Red Eric

I'm not inventing anything.

Greece is making every effort to negotiate a deal which relaxes the austerity enough to let the economy breathe a little. Your constant refrain is that Greece is delaying, posturing etc instead of just getting on with things. They are being prevented from getting on with anything, primarily by the other 18 Eurozone Finance Ministers.

The only way there could be instant "progress" is if Greece stopped negotiating their side and "got on with" implementing the remainder of the previous agreement (ie another dose of recessionary measures in return for more bailout cash which instantly disappears in loan repayments). In the interests of the longer term future, despite the considerable efforts of the EZ and the ECB to create instability in Greece, they naturally refuse to do that.

Garbatellamike

Oh yes you are - you have put a deceptive spin on a quote from me - i.e. something I have never said at any stage. Please read the thread again from the beginning and you will see why your assertion (which I highlighted in bold) is completely and utterly ridiculous.

As to making every effort to negotiate a deal, I think you are right to a certain extent. However, they are in fact desparately trying to renegotiate a deal they signed up to in Feb and then reneged on. The problem is the other 18 parties to the deal, understandably, want them to deliver what they agreed and then negotiate a new deal - there is trust involved here and trust had been forfeited by dishonesty.

They are posturing and prevaricating yet again! To support this view I offer as evidence: unilateral declaration of debt illegality; asking loans from Russia; demanding 279 billion from Germany; telling the EU that the USA had agreed to mediate; etc etc.

They need to implement what they agreed to in Feb to release the remainder of Bailout 2 money and then actually start doing something to reform their broken economy, which will help secure agreement for Bailout 3 to tide them over until they can stand on their own 2 feet. They have wasted every oportunity since 20 Feb and continue to do so hence their splendid isolation.

The issue with cancelling the debt so that they can then run up more debt on spend and spend more policies is that this is how Greece got into the mess in the first place, and is therefore, imho, insane and the other 18 countries in the Eurozone are not buying it.

Whilst there are elements of Syrizia who are bright enough to realise that neotiation when in a desparate state, that is getting progressively more desparate, involves needing to compromise. However for other Syriza elements, ideology appears to be everything and there can be no compromise. Poor Mr T, it must be like herding cats with his cadre of Ministers...

Get on with the real reform and cut out the rhetoric and posturing. Be honest with the EU and with their electorate and they can make progress. Otherwise...........................

Red Eric

They haven't reneged on the 20th February deal - they were told to provide more detail, but were told it still wasn't detailed enough when they did so. They are currently in the process of working with representatives of the creditors to get something acceptable for presentation and approval. The creditors still want the pension cuts and tax increases agreed by the previous government in that deal but they weren't part of the February proposal.

They can't get on with much until they have the approval of their plans.

Some of what you call "rhetoric and posturing" is, I'm sure, a reaction to the continual onslaught of anti-Greek propaganda which has been suffered by them over the past 5 years and which has continued apace since the new government was elected. It was used to justify the austerity being imposed and is now being used to try to discredit the government in and outside of Greece. The difference now is that there is a response to it instead of the meek acceptance that it's all deserved.

InVinoVeritas

I don't want to prick your balloon Eric but your version of events is not correct, even though it is what Greece would have us believe.

Firstly, Tsipras asked for a bailout extension of four months (contrary to his pre-election commitment to kill the existing bailout). This was an extension therefore the terms of the existing bailout were also renewed. This was what Merkel announced. A letter confirming this was to be sent by Varoufakis to Jeroen Dijsselbloem but already Tsipras was running into trouble getting his party behind it. A substantially different letter was sent by Varoufakis.

Eventually the letter which had been agreed on was produced and signed by Varoufakis and subsequently presented and voted by the German parliament, The Eurogroup then approved the bailout extension.

The full story is here:- http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0ad64...#axzz3Wi5N4yJ8

Subsequently Tsipras still could not get his own government to support what had been agreed and the process of producing a list of alternative reforms began. These do not include the original and extended bailout terms or reference to the letter under which the bailout was extended hence the refusal by the Eurogroup to release any further funds.