Road to a Grecian turn?
Mar 26th 2015, 12:42 pm
#226
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I am not sure the markets HAVE priced this in. They are pretty volatile at the moment and stock markets are taking a bit of a pasting.
I guess they are a bit more relaxed as Podemos did worse than they might, and the NF too - although still a frighteningly high number.
Normally I would just say they all got a bit over excited and anyway the bellwether is Euro Dollar, where the currency move was way overdone and far too fast. The move up was just a run. The next few months would normally see some consolidation - possibly over the summer too (Sell in May and Go away) and then the decision time will be in the autumn.
But look at oil. 15 percent up in a week and US numbers looking soft. Those are the reasons for the stock and currency moves.
So on balance no. I think the markets are very complacent.
I guess they are a bit more relaxed as Podemos did worse than they might, and the NF too - although still a frighteningly high number.
Normally I would just say they all got a bit over excited and anyway the bellwether is Euro Dollar, where the currency move was way overdone and far too fast. The move up was just a run. The next few months would normally see some consolidation - possibly over the summer too (Sell in May and Go away) and then the decision time will be in the autumn.
But look at oil. 15 percent up in a week and US numbers looking soft. Those are the reasons for the stock and currency moves.
So on balance no. I think the markets are very complacent.
Mar 26th 2015, 1:22 pm
#227
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I think this is all down to the oil price - Greece is not a significant factor (much as Titsup might hate this).
Mar 26th 2015, 1:22 pm
#228
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Absolutely agree. Sorry if I was unclear. The volatility is just the normal turbulence after a couple of breakthrough moves, that may have slightly anticipated growth in the world economy.
I don't think the markets have begun to think through Greece and its possible consequences.
I don't think the markets have begun to think through Greece and its possible consequences.
Mar 26th 2015, 2:14 pm
#229
Dunroaming back in UK
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Absolutely agree. Sorry if I was unclear. The volatility is just the normal turbulence after a couple of breakthrough moves, that may have slightly anticipated growth in the world economy.
I don't think the markets have begun to think through Greece and its possible consequences.
I don't think the markets have begun to think through Greece and its possible consequences.
Mar 26th 2015, 2:52 pm
#230
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Lets just hope than when they DO start thinking about it, they come to a similarly rapid and harmonious agr
eement
eement
Mar 26th 2015, 4:21 pm
#231
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
The ECB will NOT be buying back Greek bonds as part of the QE process due to the state of Greeks finances. Draghi today.
Mar 27th 2015, 3:01 pm
#232
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Greek government denies Varoufakis will resign.
Must be true then
Must be true then
Mar 28th 2015, 8:22 am
#233
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Mar 28th 2015, 10:25 am
#234
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
"die griechische Zeitung „Kontra“ berichtet: „Die unfairen Angriffe gegen Varoufakis werden weitergehen. Um die Situation zu beruhigen, denkt er jetzt über den Rücktritt nach.“"
Mar 31st 2015, 7:57 am
#235
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
A balanced summary of the current issues methinks:
After several months of tense and often antagonistic negotiations, Greece and its creditors appear to be at a stalemate. In order to receive a further bail-out funds, the Syriza government has proposed a set of reforms that in the view of Germany, the ECB and the IMF “don’t make the grade”.
To many, any compromise by Syriza represents a tragic surrender of its principles and a blow to the emerging anti-austerity sentiment rising across Europe. As one Athenian commentator observed:
They were voted in to say no. No to the same old, same old. Because the people have been desperate, they have felt humiliated and impoverished.
For others, Syriza must accept a “course correction” and embrace “responsible” economics required for ensuring the country’s present and future financial solvency. In this view: “Greece’s fate lies in Athen’s hands, not Berlin’s”.
I am not sure where they go from here?
To many, any compromise by Syriza represents a tragic surrender of its principles and a blow to the emerging anti-austerity sentiment rising across Europe. As one Athenian commentator observed:
They were voted in to say no. No to the same old, same old. Because the people have been desperate, they have felt humiliated and impoverished.
For others, Syriza must accept a “course correction” and embrace “responsible” economics required for ensuring the country’s present and future financial solvency. In this view: “Greece’s fate lies in Athen’s hands, not Berlin’s”.
Apr 1st 2015, 10:03 am
#236
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Interesting that the EU has extended the deadline to the end of April. The consensus is that Greece will run out of money around mid-April. What happens between these two dates? The ECB has ruled out funding the bank run which is under way and which Greece has done nothing to stop.
It seems like a Grecident waiting to happen.
It seems like a Grecident waiting to happen.
Apr 1st 2015, 11:42 am
#237
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Interesting that the EU has extended the deadline to the end of April. The consensus is that Greece will run out of money around mid-April. What happens between these two dates? The ECB has ruled out funding the bank run which is under way and which Greece has done nothing to stop.
It seems like a Grecident waiting to happen.
It seems like a Grecident waiting to happen.
Time wasting continues and Syriza's detailed proposals still lack..... detail...
Still zero progress since 20 Feb
Apr 1st 2015, 2:54 pm
#238
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I think they are more likely to pay the wages and pensions and default on the €450m due to the IMF on 9th April. All this pales into insignificance when compared to the €2bn of repayments due in May.
Varoufakis is back in the headlines proposing that Greece adopt the bitcoin. They should keep him well away from the microphones.
Varoufakis is back in the headlines proposing that Greece adopt the bitcoin. They should keep him well away from the microphones.
Apr 1st 2015, 2:58 pm
#239
Dunroaming back in UK
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I think they are more likely to pay the wages and pensions and default on the €450m due to the IMF on 9th April. All this pales into insignificance when compared to the
€2bn of repayments due in May.
Varoufakis is back in the headlines proposing that Greece adopt the bitcoin. They should keep him well away from the microphones.
€2bn of repayments due in May.
Varoufakis is back in the headlines proposing that Greece adopt the bitcoin. They should keep him well away from the microphones.
Trouble is the constant lying, posturing and prevarication makes it difficult to judge what they will actually do and when.
Apr 4th 2015, 7:29 am
#240
Hostage Negotiator
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Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
I thought it might be fun to have a poll on how we think this situation will evolve:-
http://britishexpats.com/forum/europ...utcome-855823/
http://britishexpats.com/forum/europ...utcome-855823/