Garbatellamike

And???

Red Eric

And (do I really have to spell this out?) therefore the OECD has been and is playing a significant role, which means that if the Greek government has their approval for its own reform plan it carries some weight.

Garbatellamike

Do you really believe that Eric? What weight exactly?

InVinoVeritas

I guess we don't have the same understanding regarding what the OECD does, Eric. I would describe them more as a kind of consultancy advising Greece on the implementation of reforms. I don't see them as establishing or agreeing or even monitoring reforms.

The whole problem is that since the bail-out Greece has had an extremely poor track-record of implementing the reforms which were agreed. It now wants to change the reforms it implements and is trying to portray the OECD as having approved these reforms in some way as being acceptable for Greece to be able meet its commitments.

I've expressed the view already that Greece is being, at best, incompetent and, at worst, duplicitous in the way it going about renegotiating the terms of the bail-out. Through their bungling diplomacy, they have somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

EMR

Report in the Sunday Times that in a desperate attempt to find some cash the new government is not paying contract workers and is raiding government pension funds.
So much for their aims of putting the Greek population first.

InVinoVeritas

Well the fuse has just about burnt down and there is no more room for manoeuvre. Schaeuble now says the Greek leaders are lying to the population.

Apart from the €2 billion of repayments due on Friday there is a repayment due on the original Goldman Sachs derivative that Greece used to hide its debt when joining the EU - no one is saying how much that is.

Apparently the troika has been banned from government buildings and the country's ledgers are being handed over in hotel car parks.

The meeting between Merkel and Tsipras next Monday is being represented in Greece as a capitulation by Germany. In reality, I think she will give him a loaded revolver and suggest he take the honourable way out.

Red Eric

Absolutely not capitulation but I can't believe the meeting would have been set up or agreed to by either side if it was just so that Merkel could give Tsipras six of the best.

Garbatellamike

no but she will be straight talking for sure on time wasting

Charismatic

There is a parallel thread running here: http://britishexpats.com/forum/take-...-851712/page3/

InVinoVeritas

The loaded revolver

Following from my last post, I think this is the loaded revolver Merkel should give to Tsipras on Monday:-

1. The EU will help Greece with an orderly exit from the Euro
2. Greece will remain in the EU.
3. The drachma will be restored as the Greek currency.
4. The debt to the EU will be redenominated in drachma.
5. The interest on the debt will be based on the drachma’s base lending rate and not on the Euro’s
6. The ECB will use QE to buy new drachma bonds up to a certain limit, in order to prevent a collapse of the drachma.
7. The EU will use its influence on the IMF and Goldman Sachs to redenominate their debt.

Tsipras would likely accept such a deal simply because getting the drachma back will be seen as a success and give Greece the control it wants over its own destiny.

The EU (and other debtors who join in) will risk a haircut to their debt if the drachma falls but this would be partly compensated by a higher interest rate on the drachma.

I don’t think this is necessarily negative on the Euro. Providing it is handled without a crisis it may provide a safety mechanism to protect the Euro in the future if other countries go off the rails.

It avoids Russia coming in and making a mess in Greece.

It may allow Tsipras to actually start to managing Greece’s economy better as he will have to deal with the real world rather than the imaginary world they have created for themselves inside the EU.

The population will find it much easier to accept an austerity imposed by its own government rather than that imposed by another.

The big danger is that Tsipras and his big idiot Finance minister actually do what they said they wanted to do; give up on austerity, stop restructuring and give money to the poor. It sounds nice in an election but it’s a bad way to run a country. If he does do this once Greece is dependent on world financial markets then interest rates will go through the roof and the currency will devalue.

But this is the loaded revolver Merkel should give him.

Red Eric

It'd be a bit rich to invite him to travel to Berlin and back to deliver a lecture on time-wasting.

Actually, they seem quite busy. Rumour has it they'll be voting on a bill today to alleviate the humanitarian crisis, despite opposition from the EC.

Garbatellamike

It should not be necessary but unfortunately it is. Vis a vis last nights Deputy Fin Min VTC where Grece declined to provide any information on measures and said they were escalating it to the summit (which does not have Greece on the agenda) leaving all the other countries flabbergasted.

Whilst you are correct in saying they are voting on a "humanitarian crisis" bill and the EU Commission has warned that it contravenes the agreements they have signed -it is essentially more time wasting in terms of the Elephant in the room. As to whether this bill alleviates or exacerbates the situation for the poor in Greece - the Jury is still out!

Get on with the detail and stop time wasting will be Merkel's message, else IVV's solution above may become the only option. Time is running out: tax take is going down, capital flight is going up, more repayments are becoming due, the pension funds have been raided etc etc - they have actually been busy - right!

Red Eric

OK then - here's something else they want(ed) to vote on today. A proposal to allow tax arrears to be paid in instalments.

Now, looking at this sensibly, it seems a reasonable proposal. After all, if a debtor simply hasn't got the money to pay the full bill (and fines / interest?) in one go, wouldn't it be a good idea to allow staged payments?

If that sort of thing can be vetoed outside of Greece to prevent them doing it, it seems as though their sovereignty is being very seriously compromised. And it does appear that they have to submit every single measure for scrutiny before it can be enacted.

Now who's time-wasting? The ECB and the Eurozone are trying to bludgeon Greece into submission. Time for some constructive change, methinks.

Garbatellamike

Agree on what you say on tax installment being reasonable

As to who is wasting time? The Greek Government - simples - I have to confess to being surpised you haven't spotted that

It is indeed time for some constructive change - as opposed to disingenuity, deliberate ambiguity, posturing, evasion and time wasting.

EMR

The new Greek government reminds me of myself as a child when I was given one of those plastic airplane construction kits at Christmas.
It looked oh so easy on the box until I opened it up looked at the complicated instructions and assembly and soon realized that I had to ask Dad for help or in the case of Greece the EU and wider financial world.
As I found trying to do it all myself resulted in one hell of a mess with Dad saying " I told you so ".