Garbatellamike

Well expectations seem to be low (i.e. realistic):

"Don't expect much from Monday," an EU official said, adding that for any political decision to be taken, the government's proposals need to first be reviewed and assessed by technical experts from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund-collectively known as the "not-troika".




N.B. I added the "not-"

Garbatellamike

So they spoke about it for less than 30 minutes and then we went back to square one - posturing, contradiction and no progress.

Are Syrizia actually trying to get the Eurogroup to expell them or are they really as dysfuctional as they appear? - I really don't know!

Options I see at the moment:

A GREXIT = expulsion by the other Eurozone members after default (Varoufakis preferred couse?').
A GREXODUS = a proactive decision by Greece to return to the drachma taking short term pain for medium term gain.
A GREXIDENT = where prevarication and the erratic (and occassionally decietful) nature of negotiations pushes Greece into default and out of the Eurozone by accident. I:E. continuing as they are at the moment.
A BAILOUT Version 3 = accepting the not- Troika will monitor them and therefore getting the money to blunder on increasing the debt that will never be repaid.

I am not seeing any new policies from Syrizia that appear to suggest they are committed to resolving the crisis and, sadly, I also note only 5 MPs heeded their leader's request to refrain from asking for government provided cars (the Kleptocracy is capturing most of them).

Anyone got any insights on where this is going to end up as I must be missing something?

bigglesworth

It may be cynical of me but I have always found "cui bono" a good rule -to follow the money.
Euro dollar this time last year 1.36. This year 1.06
German car exports this time last year - declining.
German car exports this year - will absolutely rocket, as will all German exports.
The Euro has been of incalculable benefit to Germany. GDP p.a. of 3.6 trillion would be seriously hit were their currency to reflect their own balance of trade rather than Southern Europe's. There is no way Germany will cut Greece loose. Greece is worth so much more as a hostage in the dungeons of the European project.
For a different take (obviously containing a bit of hyperbole)
Greece's Net Debt Is 18% of GDP, Not 175%. What's Germany's? - Forbes
Or
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/busine...cle4379312.ece

EMR

I agree the ECB no doubt influenced by the fear in Germany of inflation maintained an over valued Euro.
With inflation no longer a serious concern the Euro is being allowed to fall with a resultant improvement in Eurozone exports.
My small contribution to that is that sales to the UK are up by over 150% year on year.

bigglesworth

EMR no surprises there, (although not good for the UK). The question for Greece is what can they export to OUTSIDE the Eurozone. Most of their tourist business I believe comes from within Europe, so although British holidaymakers will increase, Germans will not. And Russians have their own problems.

Shipping will not see much benefit from the decline in oil, as the Euro decline will negate most of that.

I believe food related items are only five odd percent of exports.

Red Eric

Apparently the cars referred to are on a leasing contract which runs until September - so they have to be paid for whether or not they are used.

Presumably this is one of many stories that are doing the rounds to try to show Syriza as hypocrites (along with "he wears expensive clothes" or "he's from a rich background"), which actually have nothing to do with their political beliefs or their desire to change the way the country has previously been run.

Garbatellamike

I hope you are right Eric and am hoping to see the changes soon!!!!

EMR

It was interesting to see the 10 year rates being offered today.
Greece is over 10% but the other " sickmen of Europe " and the UK are under 2% with Ireland even lower.
No signs of the market expecting any major bad news for the Eurozone.

Garbatellamike

yes EMR, it seems that they have decoupled Greece from the rest of the periphery

Red Eric

There was a meeting between Tsipras and the Secretary General of the OECD yesterday which reportedly went very well. He appears to have full support and they've signed a cooperation agreement about implementation of reforms Greece wants and evaluating the progress and effectiveness of those reforms.

Admittedly it's a somewhat unorthodox approach when compared to "you won't get this bit of funding unless you cut pensions, fire workers, raise VAT and privatise stuff".

But you never know. It might work, given a chance.

InVinoVeritas

Er, excuse me, but the OECD has nothing to do with funding so Greece may as well be talking to my Granny - she doesn't have any money either (or teeth).

Red Eric

Very witty Vino.

However, as Tsipras has also managed a positive meeting with Juncker this morning, and as neither the OECD nor the European Commission are exactly famous for being hotbeds of radical Marxism, it might be an indication that they're not as isolated as some sources might have us believe.

And as dictating terms under which money is "loaned" in order that an equal amount comes straight back seems not to be working (quite the reverse, in fact), perhaps a change of tack is required. A respected (even by the Eurogroup) organisation giving a seal of approval to Greek proposals might just lend them a little more credibility.

InVinoVeritas

Mmm, positive?

Juncker saying today, "I do not think we have made sufficient progress but we will try to push in the direction of a successful conclusion", does not sound terribly positive to me.

In fact, it sounds like something I'd have said after chatting up some birds when I was 17 and that wasn't terribly positive either!

Garbatellamike

yep still in a minority of one and continue to waste time rather than actually doing anything - very disappointing and of course the OECD bit is a red herring, totally meaningless

Red Eric

Well I might have agreed that it didn't go all that well with Juncker if what you quoted was the full statement and was made after their meeting. But it wasn't - it's a very misleading partial quote from what he said beforehand.

On the matter of the OECD's herring-like qualities (the following published a year or so ago):