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Road to a Grecian turn?

Road to a Grecian turn?

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Old Feb 10th 2017, 11:04 am
  #1171  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Exactly.

Not that they're going to exit.
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Old Feb 10th 2017, 11:53 am
  #1172  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by InVinoVeritas
It may be in Roger Bootles's excellent paper on the subject:-

http://albertobagnai.it/wp-content/u...ootle_2012.pdf

The big problem is that there is no way you could even start work on an exit from the Euro without it becoming known. I think at the point the economy implodes. And remember also that the EU bill on exiting the EU (which would have to part and parcel of a Euro exit) would remain denominated in Euros.
The ECB is trying to emphasise that to members. Of course, IF they are still sovereign, whether they choose to implement Lex Monetae is a sovereign matter. But they cannot, I would think, set it to one side whilst they remain under the authority of the ECJ. So membership of the EU and membership of the Euro have become intertwined. (As they probably intended).

Where that leaves them is anybody's guess. QE simply must be wound down soon. (Law of diminishing returns, and anyway you cannot borrow ad infinitum from tomorrow, especially as tomorrow becomes today)
But neither Greece, nor Italy, nor now Portugal can actually cover their current expenditure without either defaulting or borrowing more to pay the cost of borrowing. Squares and circles. The next BIS report will be ineteresting.
That can is getting a lot of dents in it as they kick it on down the road
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Old Feb 10th 2017, 12:47 pm
  #1173  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by InVinoVeritas
I don't think Schauble gives a flying duck what happens to Greece after they exit, Bootle clearly does.
I think that's a good call and Schaube may not be alone in that..
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Old Feb 10th 2017, 12:51 pm
  #1174  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Evasive Eric
Exactly.

Not that they're going to exit.
I don't think you can be that certain Eric - it is unlikely but GREXIT is within the art of the possible given the scale of the problem and decreasing room for manoeuvre.

I think the more likely course of action is further extend and pretend but only time will tell.

Oh - no sign of growth then?
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Old Feb 10th 2017, 1:05 pm
  #1175  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike
I don't think you can be that certain Eric - it is unlikely but GREXIT is within the art of the possible given the scale of the problem and decreasing room for manoeuvre.
Is there a mechanism for chucking a country out of the Eurozone? Because I don't think the Greeks would actually vote for it. And even if there were, it's a very moot point as to whether it would be possible or legal to throw them out of the EU as a result - and that they certainly won't vote for.

I also think that despite Schäuble's probable desire to see them go, he's in a very small minority. He can and does make things extremely awkward for them by his influence in the Eurogroup and I'd certainly like to see a changing of the guard in there.

I wonder what the French elections will bring? Maybe Macron might hold sway and swing the balance of power a little - he seems to be the right sort of reformer, from what I've read. Something needs to happen to make things a bit more cohesive and purposeful.
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Old Feb 10th 2017, 1:23 pm
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by EvbasiveEric
Is there a mechanism for chucking a country out of the Eurozone? Because I don't think the Greeks would actually vote for it. And even if there were, it's a very moot point as to whether it would be possible or legal to throw them out of the EU as a result - and that they certainly won't vote for.

I also think that despite Schäuble's probable desire to see them go, he's in a very small minority. He can and does make things extremely awkward for them by his influence in the Eurogroup and I'd certainly like to see a changing of the guard in there.

I wonder what the French elections will bring? Maybe Macron might hold sway and swing the balance of power a little - he seems to be the right sort of reformer, from what I've read. Something needs to happen to make things a bit more cohesive and purposeful.
You are wrong again on this thread, which is becoming a recurring theme - the point is as far from moot as it is possible to be. Moreover, I have to point out that a point is either moot or not - you can't have a very moot point or a not very moot point as moot is an absolute

There is something in what you say about Schaube.

I think there are a whole series of elections not just France but again you may be on to something there.






Any sign of growth yet?
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Old Feb 10th 2017, 11:17 pm
  #1177  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike
You are wrong again on this thread, which is becoming a recurring theme - the point is as far from moot as it is possible to be.
I'll happily accept your opinion on the matter if you provide meaningful evidence to support it - otherwise I shall remain sceptical on the basis of what I have read so far.
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 10:14 am
  #1178  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

A moot was an Old English meeting for discussion.
Nowadays, only used I think in Law colleges and the phrase "a moot point"
Moot usually nowadays means a law students debating competition - really rather fun- on a particular point of law.
Therefore it absolutely means debatable, undecided, open to argument.
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 10:21 am
  #1179  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by bigglesworth
A moot was an Old English meeting for discussion.
Nowadays, only used I think in Law colleges and the phrase "a moot point"
Moot usually nowadays means a law students debating competition - really rather fun- on a particular point of law.
Therefore it absolutely means debatable, undecided, open to argument.
yes true but Eric used it in its context of an irrelevant argument
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 10:25 am
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Evasive Eric
I'll happily accept your opinion on the matter if you provide meaningful evidence to support it - otherwise I shall remain sceptical on the basis of what I have read so far.
skeptical methinks

The only opinion you accept on anything is that of the brilliant Red Eric the infallible - I won't hold my breath waiting for you to accept opinion or fact postulated by anyone else.
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 10:27 am
  #1181  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike
yes true but Eric used it in its context of an irrelevant argument
No I didn't.
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 10:31 am
  #1182  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric
No I didn't.
sorry that's how I read it - I do struggle to follow your logic sometimes. If that's not what you meant please accept my sincere apologies which I also offer to Biggles.

My bad
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 10:55 am
  #1183  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

No need to apologise but to be honest I didn't even know it had the meaning you refer to - I only knew of it being used to mean debatable or to raise a matter for discussion. Although I've heard and read the expression frequently, I've never recognised it as being used to mean irrelevant - although I expect it possibly has been and I've missed it.

So I didn't even know that's what you were referring to - I just couldn't be bothered going in to yet another disagreement on such a trivial matter this time.

Anyway, thanks to both - I've learnt something today.
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 10:57 am
  #1184  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Red Eric
No need to apologise but to be honest I didn't even know it had the meaning you refer to - I only knew of it being used to mean debatable or to raise a matter for discussion. Although I've heard and read the expression frequently, I've never recognised it as being used to mean irrelevant - although I expect it possibly has been and I've missed it.

So I didn't even know that's what you were referring to - I just couldn't be bothered going in to yet another disagreement on such a trivial matter this time.

Anyway, thanks to both - I've learnt something today.
No Eric when I make a mistake I have to apologize as it's the right thing to do........
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Old Feb 11th 2017, 11:05 am
  #1185  
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Default Re: Road to a Grecian turn?

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike
No Eric when I make a mistake I have to apologize as it's the right thing to do........
Great. I always make a point of it, so something we can agree on
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