bigglesworth

On the assumption that garbatella is Rome reference, here is one Italian article. There are quite a few more
Euro, Bankitalia: "Uscita dell'Italia? Catastrofe". Mediobanca: "Se si rinomina il debito in lire 71 miliardi di perdite" - Il Fatto Quotidiano

Garbatellamike

yep used to Live in the Garbatella - I'll have a look and see what it says Biggles

Garbatellamike

Biggles it is basically a study looking at the pros and cons of reverting to the Lira. It's conclusion is that Italexit would be a catastrophic disaster (tautology is acceptable grammar for emphasis in Italian) with the conclusion that Italexit in 2017 would have an overall negative effect of 71 billion Euros assuming the start value would be 1936.27 lira to the €.

Pulaski

This study was presumably brought to us by the same people who announced that Italy joining the Euro in the first place was a good idea and economically "necessary"?

When you're stuck in a hole, maybe eventually you will come to realize that it is going to cost some money to get out of the hole?

bigglesworth

Ah, but with one jump he was free!

Point being that somebody has to finance Italy. Pensions can no longer do it. International markets look closed, or closing. And the ECB is "running down" its purchases of bonds. (Yeah, right!)

Really does not look good

bigglesworth

Sorry - very inexpertly edited. Mediobanco GS bit was of course my comment

Garbatellamike

no from the banking sector not political

Pulaski

They're all in bed together.

Garbatellamike

I would not disagree with you there

Maybe1day

All very quiet on the PD for the last 4 months. Normally TV and the press release it monthly up until May then it gets lost and resurfaces around Nov.
Jolly figures are released, the chefs have been working! then the following April the real figures come out usually about 2% higher. This year it went until Aug and then nothing, new chefs with Renzi and Paduan I suppose. The figures should be available on the Gov site, remember the submerged part is about 5 times higher than most other comparable EU countries.

bigglesworth

Another interesting paper from the IMF a couple of days ago. (Ms Lagarde very definitely does not reflect the mainstream of their thinking)
Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area
I hope those numpties in Valletta are reading it!

Garbatellamike

wow Biggles very interesting especially this bit from the Exec Summary....

bigglesworth

And that is the polite bit!

Actually they did another paper a year or so ago saying the Euro was failing Europe, and was doomed. I will try to look it out.
The bit I really do not understand is why, given that just about all their research points one way, they still allow Lagarde desk space.

bigglesworth

Not found it yet Mike, but came across this one, which ought to be on the agenda at Valetta as well

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1609.pdf

Garbatellamike

Thanks biggles.


I tend to think the Euro is apart of the problem for Greece as it means the country can't grow its way out of debt and is prevented from devaluing, which might offer the best way out. The trouble is a return to the drachma would bring a lot of short term pain as per you note on Italy above.