Road to a Grecian turn?
#1126
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
On the assumption that garbatella is Rome reference, here is one Italian article. There are quite a few more
Euro, Bankitalia: "Uscita dell'Italia? Catastrofe". Mediobanca: "Se si rinomina il debito in lire 71 miliardi di perdite" - Il Fatto Quotidiano
Euro, Bankitalia: "Uscita dell'Italia? Catastrofe". Mediobanca: "Se si rinomina il debito in lire 71 miliardi di perdite" - Il Fatto Quotidiano
#1127
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,295
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
On the assumption that garbatella is Rome reference, here is one Italian article. There are quite a few more
Euro, Bankitalia: "Uscita dell'Italia? Catastrofe". Mediobanca: "Se si rinomina il debito in lire 71 miliardi di perdite" - Il Fatto Quotidiano
Euro, Bankitalia: "Uscita dell'Italia? Catastrofe". Mediobanca: "Se si rinomina il debito in lire 71 miliardi di perdite" - Il Fatto Quotidiano
#1128
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,295
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Biggles it is basically a study looking at the pros and cons of reverting to the Lira. It's conclusion is that Italexit would be a catastrophic disaster (tautology is acceptable grammar for emphasis in Italian) with the conclusion that Italexit in 2017 would have an overall negative effect of 71 billion Euros assuming the start value would be 1936.27 lira to the €.
#1129
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Biggles it is basically a study looking at the pros and cons of reverting to the Lira. It's conclusion is that Italexit would be a catastrophic disaster (tautology is acceptable grammar for emphasis in Italian) with the conclusion that Italexit in 2017 would have an overall negative effect of 71 billion Euros assuming the start value would be 1936.27 lira to the €.
When you're stuck in a hole, maybe eventually you will come to realize that it is going to cost some money to get out of the hole?
#1130
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
This study was presumably brought to us by the same people who announced that Italy joining the Euro in the first place was a good idea and economically "necessary"?
Mediobanco - not Goldman Sachs
When you're stuck in a hole, maybe eventually you will come to realize that it is going to cost some money to get out of the hole?
Mediobanco - not Goldman Sachs
When you're stuck in a hole, maybe eventually you will come to realize that it is going to cost some money to get out of the hole?
Point being that somebody has to finance Italy. Pensions can no longer do it. International markets look closed, or closing. And the ECB is "running down" its purchases of bonds. (Yeah, right!)
Really does not look good
#1131
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Sorry - very inexpertly edited. Mediobanco GS bit was of course my comment
#1132
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,295
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
This study was presumably brought to us by the same people who announced that Italy joining the Euro in the first place was a good idea and economically "necessary"?
When you're stuck in a hole, maybe eventually you will come to realize that it is going to cost some money to get out of the hole?
When you're stuck in a hole, maybe eventually you will come to realize that it is going to cost some money to get out of the hole?
#1135
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Jolly figures are released, the chefs have been working! then the following April the real figures come out usually about 2% higher. This year it went until Aug and then nothing, new chefs with Renzi and Paduan I suppose. The figures should be available on the Gov site, remember the submerged part is about 5 times higher than most other comparable EU countries.
#1136
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Another interesting paper from the IMF a couple of days ago. (Ms Lagarde very definitely does not reflect the mainstream of their thinking)
Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area
I hope those numpties in Valletta are reading it!
Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area
I hope those numpties in Valletta are reading it!
#1137
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,295
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Another interesting paper from the IMF a couple of days ago. (Ms Lagarde very definitely does not reflect the mainstream of their thinking)
Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area
I hope those numpties in Valletta are reading it!
Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area
I hope those numpties in Valletta are reading it!
This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015.
#1138
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
wow Biggles very interesting especially this bit from the Exec Summary....
This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015.
This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015.
Actually they did another paper a year or so ago saying the Euro was failing Europe, and was doomed. I will try to look it out.
The bit I really do not understand is why, given that just about all their research points one way, they still allow Lagarde desk space.
#1139
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
Not found it yet Mike, but came across this one, which ought to be on the agenda at Valetta as well
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1609.pdf
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1609.pdf
#1140
Dunroaming back in UK
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Expat in Yorkshire now
Posts: 11,295
Re: Road to a Grecian turn?
And that is the polite bit!
Actually they did another paper a year or so ago saying the Euro was failing Europe, and was doomed. I will try to look it out.
The bit I really do not understand is why, given that just about all their research points one way, they still allow Lagarde desk space.
Actually they did another paper a year or so ago saying the Euro was failing Europe, and was doomed. I will try to look it out.
The bit I really do not understand is why, given that just about all their research points one way, they still allow Lagarde desk space.
I tend to think the Euro is apart of the problem for Greece as it means the country can't grow its way out of debt and is prevented from devaluing, which might offer the best way out. The trouble is a return to the drachma would bring a lot of short term pain as per you note on Italy above.