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This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Old Apr 5th 2020, 11:02 am
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Default This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

heres a sobering thought for this sunday. Many of us would argue that the value of a uiman life is infinite, those who have had access to the UK’s NHS would say how highly life is valued, but having worked with their statisticians and commissioners [purse string holders] this is far from the truth. Take a look at this arricle on the actual value of a UK human life, and discussion on how much its worth spending on the bug... https://thecritic.co.uk/a-response-o...irus-shutdown/

‘it’s far from certain that we’ll have a Covid-19 vaccine in 18 months, particularly as coronaviruses have a nasty habit of mutating. Eleven years after the H1N1 influenza pandemic (swine flu), there are still no antiviral therapies that have been shown to save lives. The choice we face [in the uk] is not between switching to mitigation after Easter or keeping the lockdown in place until 30th June, as Bowman believes, or until 30th September 2021, as Ferguson recommends. The choice is between switching to mitigation or maintaining the lockdown indefinitely.’

What is the social and economic impact of an indefinite lockdown on the people of a caribbean island? Even those who work in big stable firms will lose their income and jobs at some point and i cant see government bail outs being properly funded here. Then the civil unrest resulting.... This is scary break down of society stuff which is arguably worse than people dying of the bug?

Just as scary - if this is a likely outcome maybe Trump has got it right?
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Old Apr 6th 2020, 6:48 pm
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
What is the social and economic impact of an indefinite lockdown on the people of a caribbean island? Even those who work in big stable firms will lose their income and jobs at some point and i cant see government bail outs being properly funded here. Then the civil unrest resulting.... This is scary break down of society stuff which is arguably worse than people dying of the bug?

Just as scary - if this is a likely outcome maybe Trump has got it right?
Yes indeed he has got it right! The cure is worse than the disease. Although... it has to be borne in mind that the bug is - very handily - shouldering the blame for the dreadful economic chaos that will come this year, starting about now. Watch for a collapse of all the fiat "paper" currencies. Yikes.
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Old Apr 6th 2020, 7:06 pm
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Take a look at the john hopkins us coronavirus website, it has the best statistical info, but also a very meaningful rticle - subheading - covid19 is lethal, but so is poverty... It goes no to say that effectively the bug can be slowed but not stopped, and any over zealous management will simply hurt the poor more. than the bug itself...

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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Old Jun 23rd 2020, 11:15 am
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

We don't seem to be getting anything meaningful out of the Grenada Government now. The Prime Minister's chat on Sunday evening was postponed indefinitely and the chat from the Minister of Tourism & Civil Aviation co-hosted by the Minister of Health regarding the opening of the airport from where I sit seemed to indicate that Grenada would use the arrival of a JetBlue flight from JFK with Grenadians on board to test the arrival routines for covid-19 BUT that was pretty-much it.

You can open an airport from July 1st just the way St Lucia did earlier but then all flights get cancelled and nobody comes because of overall quarantine routines and no risk-takers.

As I have indicated previously, from what I can see, there is no way larger scale tourism is going to be welcomed into Grenada for the foreseeable future IF indeed there were air carriers prepared to take it on.

Might it be that a major priority is to keep the place virus-free as a preliminary requirement for the re-opening of SGU but that other than that, large construction projects must continue, agriculture must be built-up and funded and farmers financed (some seem to want to reposition Grenada into agriculture and 'screw' tourism while there is a vacuum of commentary at the Government-level) and that Grenada will be re-branded as an English-speaking version of St Barts, with charters and private jets feeding the DELUXE specialty hotels and maybe Sandals, yachts and mega-yachts but NO cruise-ships and no scheduled air services.

I can't see all of this ZERO risk taking being worth it for any other purpose UNTIL, at the very least, there is a working vaccine at a small island's price point. 300EC$ for a virus check and then pay for your quarantine whether or not you are positive??? It's a thought!

Last edited by Pistolpete2; Jun 23rd 2020 at 11:22 am. Reason: ​​​​​​​You can open an airport from July 1st just the way St Lucia did earlier
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Old Jun 23rd 2020, 11:38 am
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

I wonder if the repatriation flight carried some bad news? Its actually irrelevant, Grenada cannot be like Canute and hold back the tide, it can be reduced over time but isolating ourselves will eventually lead to other harms.

There may never be a vaccine technically, even if there is one it is beyond the viable horizon. The issue is one that other governments spotted a while back. The ‘expert medical advice’ cannot be allowed to dictate policy in a balanced way, because they just care about avoiding the bug, if you die of poverty or beat your wife or are in other ways desperate, thats not something they care about.

SGU is now a non issue, they will come or not, but can be isolated on campus if needed, as the us airlines can take them. BUT tourism and all air travel to this island is dead till the government facility quarantine is gone, no tourist will visit on those terms, and regional business and leisure travel is impossible, so i suspect liat and caribbean air will not fly from here, and the hotels will stay shut, which is ridiculous as its effectively travel between safe locations. Again - the medical advice seems to be all places are an equal threat and require an equally draconian response [dare i also say profitable for someone]. How can travel between grenada and say trinidad be the same risk as the us or uk?

Last edited by uk_grenada; Jun 23rd 2020 at 11:42 am.
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Old Jun 23rd 2020, 11:46 am
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
There may never be a vaccine technically, even if there is one it is beyond the viable horizon. The issue is one that other governments spotted a while back. The ‘expert medical advice’ cannot be allowed to dictate policy in a balanced way, because they just care about avoiding the bug, if you die of poverty or beat your wife or are in other ways desperate, thats not something they care about.

SGU is now a non issue, they will come or not, but can be isolated on campus if needed, as the us airlines can take them. BUT tourism and all air travel to this island is dead till the government facility quarantine is gone, no tourist will visit on those terms, and regional business and leisure travel is impossible, so i suspect liat and caribbean air will not fly from here, and the hotels will stay shut, which is ridiculous as its effectively travel between safe locations. Again - the medical advice seems to be all places are an equal threat and require an equally draconian response [dare i also say profitable for someone]. How can travel between grenada and say trinidad be the same risk as the us or uk?
And that is why, whether they are now planning for it or not, it would seem that a country which has adopted a ZERO-risk approach can only logically have in mind that down-the-road low density HIGH VALUE tourism is the only way to go. They can manage it and the clientele can afford it.

It is possible that there is serious conflict in governments where they can't agree to a consensus way to go and some MPs might have vested interests - some shouting and screaming behind closed doors.

It's not for me to say whether or not this new business model would work to pay the country's bills any more or less than the current but I can see this, with a meaningful beefed-up interface with agriculture in a place like Grenada, as being workable for all parties - and in tune with a trend in thinking in a June 2020 BLM environment - in this changed world.

Last edited by Pistolpete2; Jun 23rd 2020 at 11:53 am. Reason: It's not for me to say whether or not this new business model
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Old Jun 23rd 2020, 12:28 pm
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Lets not widen the agenda to the point where its meaningless. Grenadian lives and just as importantly livelihoods and health matter in this discussion... As an aside have you heard the discussions on LBC [Majid Nawaz] about the subversion of the BLM agenda in the uk by ararchist groups and momentum, interesting. [Repeatable anarchist stance, find a worthwhile cause with funding and a group of supporters, take over its leadership, modify the objectives.]

Grenada has for years encouraged 5* tourism, and it does suit the island but its not beyond that, its still mass tourism, just upper end.

I would agree with the government agenda being pulled in different directions, but thats always their dilemma.

I dont know if tou heard the tourism minister here on radio, there appears to be in government a mantra that tourism is all. When asked what the alternative to tourism was, she actually said ‘nothing’. When asked how we would improve tourism, she spoke of a zipline?? This place is not generally suitable for large scale agriculture, big mechanisation is only for crops like sugarcane, and caneco is doing that, despite weird claims about slavery crops and other ridiculousness. Cocoa and nutmeg are profitable in theory but not mechanisable much, as south america shows. Bananas may have a resurgence as a market now exists. There is a strong place for smaller scale market gardening, and i know personally it can be very profitable, but these farmers need better support, but as its partially subsistence, maybe not easy, though farmers do get tax breaks.
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Old Jun 26th 2020, 4:35 am
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

It seems to me a pity that Grenada didn't ever go after the tax-haven business. It's what is helping Cayman (and BVI and TCI too) survive economically, when tourism is dead - or dead in the water, at least! Any idea whether it was discussed at all, by the politicians, back in the day?
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Old Jun 26th 2020, 10:02 am
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Grenada used to be a money laundering centre for crime, got blacklisted by uncle sam and the eu, and fell on its knees to them. It actually made it to the cover of the wall st journal for it, as a uk business owner, indeed many years back a big respectable bank offered me 20% on a savings account [should i not look to closely.] Barclays bank here was closed though nothing official was said at the time. There is now little indigenous banking left, just the canadians and trinis doing their thing, and the government seems timid. I suspect however its just never had experts try it or maybe those in power were too greedy when it was mooted. I’ll ask though.
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Old Jun 26th 2020, 11:53 am
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Im told by someone here that as a british protected colony, Cayman is allowed, even encouraged to be an offshore banking centre, but Grenada is discouraged by the UK US and EU from following its footsteps. Any truth in that do you think?
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Old Aug 13th 2020, 4:55 pm
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Speaking of Covid generally in the TCI, the UK government just posted the below which is covid her 100K people, we have 200 cases and a small population so are automatically a terrible place to come on holiday..

Although we do have a finance industry it cannot be compared to BVI or Cayman and is a tiny % of the islands GDP, the TCI is actively promoting itself and the Premier mentioned in a recent speech that we will be looking to expand the financial services sector to diversify away from tourism, but it will be slow going. When we used to promote the jurisdiction we used to always mention the excellent air links that the TCI enjoys, however, with the delay in reopening Sandals resort, returning residents are struggling to find flights back on the island and there has been a huge hit to our GDP because of the missing tourism tax, not to mention the people currently unemployed as Sandals is one of our largest employers. I think you need a diversified balance between the volume of tourists to ensure consistent air links and a diversified economy so you arent hit if the tourists stop coming, its a difficult balance.

We locked down for a few months and even now have a 10pm curfew but our borders are still open if you can get a flight.. strange times

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Old Aug 13th 2020, 6:54 pm
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Grenada. Have people forgotten its turbulent history and the names of Maurice Bishop and Bernard_Coard ?
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Old Aug 13th 2020, 10:06 pm
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Since the airport is named after Bishop, and a few roads too, unlikely, Coard is not forgotten but pretty much consigned to the failure heap, much like Reagan. Not Maggy Thatcher, she was more of a man...
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 10:47 am
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Originally Posted by skip84 View Post
Speaking of Covid generally in the TCI, the UK government just posted the below which is covid her 100K people, we have 200 cases and a small population so are automatically a terrible place to come on holiday..

Although we do have a finance industry it cannot be compared to BVI or Cayman and is a tiny % of the islands GDP, the TCI is actively promoting itself and the Premier mentioned in a recent speech that we will be looking to expand the financial services sector to diversify away from tourism, but it will be slow going. When we used to promote the jurisdiction we used to always mention the excellent air links that the TCI enjoys, however, with the delay in reopening Sandals resort, returning residents are struggling to find flights back on the island and there has been a huge hit to our GDP because of the missing tourism tax, not to mention the people currently unemployed as Sandals is one of our largest employers. I think you need a diversified balance between the volume of tourists to ensure consistent air links and a diversified economy so you arent hit if the tourists stop coming, its a difficult balance.

We locked down for a few months and even now have a 10pm curfew but our borders are still open if you can get a flight.. strange times
Well following community soread rates in some places the uk has just added TCI and Aruba to the ‘must quarantine on return’ list so youll be seeing fewer tourists. I only went to grand turk once, and was nit inspired. I thought the national industry was jewellery shops...
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 1:59 pm
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Default Re: This bug - its costs and some scary predictions

Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
Well following community soread rates in some places the uk has just added TCI and Aruba to the ‘must quarantine on return’ list so youll be seeing fewer tourists. I only went to grand turk once, and was nit inspired. I thought the national industry was jewellery shops...
We currently have just under 200 cases, but with a population of 40,000 the per 100K head of cases doesn't look good. I live on Providenciales, Grand Turk has its quaint charm, wild donkeys and diving. The national industry would only be jewellery shops if you only visited the cruise ship port, where we also have a Margaritaville and a harley davidson shop *face palm* outside of this there is much more to see.. we get our tourists mainly from USA / Canada
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