Glaswegian

How much longer until the bubble bursts this time?

tinaflorida

I was back in England in May and was absolutely horrified at the house prices over there! For the cost of our nice 3-bed house in Florida, we couldn't even get a small flat around the London area. Ithink it's going to come crashing down sooner rather than later and am glad I'm no longer a homeowner in the UK.

MikeUK

Don't know I would guess it should be in full swing by spring 2005...

But i was out by a year on the last crash..

Still the longer it takes the harder it'll hit..... my guess is an average drop of approx 20-30%

With short term peaks in critical areas of around 40-50%
panic selling in the buy to let market

What ever the case it'll need to come down to the level to get the 1st time buyer back in the market... and if its like the last two crashes they'll jump up a level and start buying one step up the ladder whilst the market is depressed… ….. I wouldn’t want to be caught with a so called starter home when it crashes…. They’re the ones that lost the most value and sat on the market for ages…

Glaswegian

We had that experience - saw the value of ur little terrace in Leicester drop by something like 30% or 40%, then we couldn't sell the bugger - someone bought it to rent.

That's anothet thing to consider, if an area fills up with rental properties it gets a lot less desirable and prices plummet.

The only good news was that we managed to buy a single family home for a decent price - we sold that at a profit when we emigrated.

MikeUK

Yep in both of the last crashes... the bottom end of the market didn't sell... the prices came low enough for the "new" first time buyer to pick from higher up the ladder... so even though the relative house price had come down.. Those trying to move up off the bottom rung were trapped...

stepnek

We are selling because we need the money for Canada. In the long run no doubt values will increase and that's good news for those that can afford to keep their house long term. But for those that can't I fear quite a drop.

MikeUK

Yep its all in the phrase "long term"..... and how long is that "long term"

Sean & Tracy

Hi
We are new to this forum- just novices, so please be nice to us!
If we knew what the housing market in the UK was going to do, and when we would all be millionaires!
We applied for PR for Canada a couple of months ago, and are keeping a close watch on house prices over here, as we want to use our current equity to buy outright in Canada, like a lot of others on this forum. The dilemma is when to sell- do we hold out until PR comes through hoping that the market hasn't nose dived in the meantime, or do we get out now and rent, in the hope that PR will be granted? A difficult decision made harder by the fact that we have 4 young children to support and house, and the fact that house prices in parts of Canada are rising too! Anyway we will just have to see what pans out, if it's meant to be it will sort, if not then plan B (not that we have one!...)

Glaswegian

It would probably be nice to buy outright in Canada, but you're probably at least a year from getting your visas.

If you sell now, you'll have to move into rental accomodation - if I remember the UK rental market, the properties suck big time - it will also probably cost you more than continuing to pay your mortgage.

Would your kids have to change school?

House prices in Canada are rising too, but not at the rate they are rising in the UK and they aren't rising at the same rate everywhere.

If the worst comes to the worst and the market collapses, will you have negative equity?

Would it be all that bad to have a mortgage in Canada?

simonhouse

Just thought I'd throw in, I had never rented a bad place until I moved to Calgary Make of that what you will.

Sean & Tracy

Thanks Glaswegian
As you say we are probably better staying put. The housing market would have to make a very substantial downturn to put us in a negative equity situation, and each month we are paying off a bit more of our mortgage anyway, which is good, whereas paying rental is dead money. Just as long as we can sell when the time comes, hopefully this time next year. All very exciting, lots more research to do, but plenty of time to do it, and this forum is wonderful- a font of knowledge, so glad to have found it.

photoads

We recently sold our UK property ourselves without an estate agent for the following reasons:

1. No longer liked the area we were living in.
2. We felt the price was at its peak and we would not get much more
3. I had a job offer in Canada, and wanted the money to put toward a property in Canada.

I run an online property site that allows you to list your property for free www.homesonsale.co.uk (shameless plug) . However this was not how we sold, we had a board outside our house. I can also supply professional personalised for sale boards with any number on for contact details.

Because local estate agents had boards up in the area they sold our house for us. They advertised in the papers, viewers came to the road, looked around the house and then they saw our board and contacted us direct.

If you are in a busy area then you may want to try selling yourself. You can get a board made from a local signwriters ask for it to be made from correx, it will cost you £10. You will need also to invest £2 for a piece of 2"x2" to fix the board to. Once get someone interested you agree a price and then get your solicitor (or conveyancor) to talk to their solicitor. You then communicate direct with the buyer.

The woman who bought could not believe how easy it was dealing with us direct, the only hassle from both sides was the solicitors dragging things out.

I think that the crash may start when those who have buy to let mortgages start to panic and decde to cash in on their gain, others will follow and bang?

Regards

Iain

Sean & Tracy

Thanks Glaswegian
As you say we are probably better staying put. The housing market would have to make a very substantial downturn to put us in a negative equity situation, and each month we are paying off a bit more of our mortgage anyway, which is good, whereas paying rental is dead money. Just as long as we can sell when the time comes, hopefully this time next year. All very exciting, lots more research to do, but plenty of time to do it, and this forum is wonderful- a font of knowledge, so glad to have found it.

wensamjam

Hi Sean and Tracy,
we think the same as you, renting in uk is dead money, we are going to hold out until we get our medical dates then put it on the market. Houses in our area are going fast so we don't see much problem selling. As it takes( from medicals to visa stage about 3 months,) gives us time to sell. We hope to be going about may next year.

Padsnbon

I had a long chat with a friend of mine who is an Estate Agent up here in the Lakes (he's my new employer too as from Tuesday) and he feels that there are wobbles in the market now, people are now questioning values on property and offering lower prices, lower than the last year or so.....

On the other hand he also said depending on where you are the difference will be noticable. We're fortunate enough to live in a tourist area where prices of houses have always been high and climbing (outside of London and other major cities) and he feels that a slump will be more noticeable in areas where tourism is not a economic factor.

Me? I'm just holding my breath and busy doing up the house ready for sale