Plunging exchange rate
 

In a bit of a panic here! I'm slap bang in the middle of bringing my UK pensions over to Canada.

This morning I see sterling has plunged to 1.93 and is still going down, presumably due to the fuss about Brexit and the referendum.

Any opinions on the wisdom of delaying my pension migration till after the referendum? I really don't want to get shafted here as my pensions were already meagre to begin with.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

Blame Boris........

Fundamentally, if the result on 23rd June is for Brexit then it should fall. If not, it should rise. Between now and then expect a certain amount of volatility depending upon the headlines of the day w.r.t. the Brexit / Stay compaign.

Even at $1.93 you are considerably ahead of the low point of $1.55 a few years back.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

The worrying thing is that many people may vote for Brexit on the immigration card but Brexit wont fix that easily if at all. More time should be spent on deciding what value add all the bureacrats in Brussels actually bring to the table as opposed to imposing sometimes pretty stupid regulations. In the end think UK is acting on something that many other countries in Europe might be thinking but for some reason not doing anything about. For sure the UK and Europe press is going to be a pretty boring read for next 4 months.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

don't delay, do it now, because you never know what the future holds & any guessing is mad, worrisome & sleepless nights.

Question is why did you not bring the pension over when the exchange rate was over 2.00?

Between 2010 and 2013 the exchange rate was in the 1.50 range

You could sit & wait to see if the referendum vote is a NO, if its a YES vote, then 1.50 may look like a good exchange rate

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

If the opinion polls show that Brexit is likely the rates will already have fallen by 6/23, and contrary to your expectations may actually rise after the results are known.

That said, the looney is weak too, so whether to move is a personal decision and trying to second-guess the market is a mug's game. If you're planning to bring the money over, bring it over now. Personally, I would leave the money in the UK because it provides additional diversification, which is always a good thing, unless there is a compelling reason to move it. Convenience is not a compelling reason.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

Currently it's a comparison between who is in a worse position - Canada or Britain.

It's still Canada by a considerable margin as far as the markets are concerned, but Brexit wouldn't be good Economically for Britain. Also the EU states would start giving Asylum Seekers free boats to cross the Channel...

As for Canada - will Alberta drag the rest of the country down? Will Metro Vancouver's crazy housing market collapse (my house is apparently worth 38% more than it was 9 months ago when I bought it - looks good on paper but that is completely ridiculous - how can that be sustainable?????)

Currently the GBP is only as low as it was last July when it passed 1.93 on the way up.

Before that is wasn't that high against the CAD since 2008.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

True enough that a potential Brexit will be factored into exchange rates prior to the event. Also likely that a Brexit vote will take 2-5 years (according to something I read earlier) to be actually executed. So lots of opportunity for exchange rate instability in the meantime!

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

This is how these things usually work. Although a lot would depend on how coherent the exit plan is if an exit occurs.

Personally I think people will look back on 1.93 and wish they'd acted on it. Sure GBP may sink lower in general, but I wouldn't be relying on CAD remaining as weak as it is for too long.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

Ditto. I suspect the Canadian dollar is oversold right now. Or, rather, that the rest of the West is no better off than we are, and just better at hiding it.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

No doubt the pound has fallen against almost ever currency due to BREXIT fears, however, if you had been following the steady rise in oil price, you would have noticed the correlation between the Canadian dollar strengthening and the rise in crude oil. For your information oil is up 5% today, so it is not all BREXIT fears that has caused the sharp currency fall.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

1.93 is still fairly decent compared to the last 5 years.

The currencies will yo-yo and you are going to have to get used to it.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

Than you still do a QROPS transfer? I thought the rules had changed?

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

Historical exchange rates from 1953 with graph and charts

Back in 1985, the GBP:CDN traded in the 1.04 range

Also, back in 1985 GBP:USD was in the 1.04 range

Between the 12 February to 18 March 1985 it was trading below 1.10

Wouldn't that be nice to see again

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

The main rule changes affected Public Sector pensions. There are now also new rules regarding Final Salary ( defined benefit ) pensions whereby if the pension has a transfer value of over £30k advice has to be received from a UK based advisor also before the transfer can take place. All other types of pensions ( personal pensions etc etc ) are unaffected.

Re: Plunging exchange rate
 

I think you confusing two different things mate. If the June vote is for leave, the UK must then formally enter a 2-year period of negotiation with the other 27 members. If a "super-majority" of the 27 (meaning, I think, 72% of the states containing at least 65% of the total population of the 27) and the UK can't agree within 2 years on an arrangement for the UK staying, then and only then can the UK exit.

The 5 year thing is an optimistic estimate of how long it would take for the UK, as an ex-EU member, to negotiate trade pacts or treaties with the rest of the world.

The UK economy will be under constant pressure of uncertainty and volatility for many years if the leave vote wins.