Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

Can anybody give some advice to what they think is going to happen here.

Situation, I have a broker, cash at the ready, just waiting to take the plunge. The exchange rate is hovering around 2.28 at the moment, but I read something about if the Uk interest rate goes up as some predict, and the US make a cut as some predict this could cause a surge in favour of the Can $. With the Iranian hostage seige now over oil should drop to.

Broker is ok and a reputable firm, but I just wanted more opinions if possible.

Many thanks

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

there was a thread around 6mths ago which has turned out to be very accurate in its content, i'm sure a search will reveal it. like to see those who contributed who are clearly in the know update us. in a nutshell a continued rise to around $2.41 if memory serves was predicted in late may/june due to what you have posted above, they accurately predicted the posistion as it is now then to when i first travelled over when it was $1.99!

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

There's a fair chance of an interest rate rise in the UK this month or next, which would improve matters. I'm holding off transferring the rest of my money for the time being.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

This month, please. Sometime early in the W/B 23rd.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

Well, the rise will be tomorrow if it does happen this month. By any rational standard they should be raising rates, but that hasn't stopped them being stupid before.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

The chances are a UK interest rise is already priced in. Whether its .25 or .5 who knows. :confused: Back to the crystal ball.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

Not sure I agree. An increase in UK rates and a reduction in US rates should bring about an increase in demand for sterling, and therefore an increase in the price of sterling. The price of the US$ should fall, and if CAD follows the US$ (which everyone says it does) then the exchange rate should move upwards from the current 2.28 level.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

BTW, the last time inflation was this high in the UK, interest rates were 11%.

We can always hope :).

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

What was the exchange rate at the time ?

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

That wouldn't tell you much, because foreign interest rates were much higher too. But I think it was around US$2 to the pound like today.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

woof woof is correct a rate raise is very much priced in. We are currently priced in for a 25bp hike between now and July. I don't think there is any possiblity of a hike tomorrow.

As for the situation in the US with regard to their rates, it is changing on a weekly basis. Economy and housing says to start cutting but inflation is still running to high which implies further hikes.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

Whatever you do phone around before making a contract. We have a Moneycorp account and wanted to transfer our house proceeds this week. We phoned up a couple of times to check there spot rates as they are always a couple of points lower than there website shows.

On the third phone call the guy said ah yes thats a better rate than you got quoted the other day (only by half a cent) and I got the feeling that he was not simply looking at the current rate on his screen but was tracking my account to see how low he could get me to buy.

On there web is was 2.29 and he was offering 2.26.

I phoned another broker straight away and got a quote at 2.28 so arranged for all the paperwork to be emailed to me to open an account.

I phoned Moneycorp back and told them that I could get 2.28 and they asked if I had an account with this broker to which I replied I dont but the forms are in my mail box and I will have in half an hour but I thought I would give you guys an opportunity to match the rate.

Amazingly I got offered 2.2795 Deal done.

So phone around and dont trust your broker he is in it to make money just like the rest of us and will not always give you the best deal.

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

Thanks Bazza, just the sort of info I needed to be fore-armed with.

Cheers, Iain

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

FYI - Rates have stayed the same at 5.25% - see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6529369.stm

Re: Exchange rates finger on the pulse
 

Guess who is selling a house in May? :D