Exchange rate

Old Dec 5th 2007, 3:31 am
  #811  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

I think the Canadians are fearing the worst
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7127605.stm
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Old Dec 5th 2007, 4:13 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Now that the Bank of Canada has shown it will cut rates to reduce the value of the dollar, it's likely to push more speculators out of the market; I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see $2.10+ against the pound in the next few months.

Assuming the Bank of England aren't dumb enough to cut rates, anyway. Despite all the talk, I don't see any way they can justify it myself.
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Old Dec 5th 2007, 5:02 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by MarkG View Post

Assuming the Bank of England aren't dumb enough to cut rates, anyway. Despite all the talk, I don't see any way they can justify it myself.
Justification isn't an issue. They have an agenda. "Nobody knows nothing till it happens." Said my grandma. "Grammer is worthless when you're telling the truth" my mum replied, sardonically.

We just follow and make do, say I.
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Old Dec 5th 2007, 5:09 pm
  #814  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Not so good today, back at 2.05!!
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Old Dec 5th 2007, 5:48 pm
  #815  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

I think the markets are pricing in the increased likelihood of a UK rate cut tomorrow.

It's pretty volatile at present, if you see a good spot rate on a day like yesterday it might be worth taking advantage!
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Old Dec 5th 2007, 5:52 pm
  #816  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Rumour has it that the US may cut it's interest rates by .5% next week, prompting a rise in the Loonie vs. the US$ again.
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Old Dec 5th 2007, 6:01 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

I always get a kick out of the idea that the Loonie is "rising" against the U.S. dollar. It isn't. The U.S. dollar is "falling" to the level of the Loonie. Makes a difference.

If the U.S. dollar was at the same level, against other world currencies, as it was 3 years ago, and the Loonie reached par with it, then it would be rising.

Unless I go to the U.S., I gain nothing. Three years ago it cost me $1,300 to buy $1,000 U.S....which in turn bought me 3.8 Peruvian Soles. Now it cost me $1,000 to buy $1,000 U.S...which in turn buys me 2.8 Peruvian Soles. No gain. No rise in real value in the Canadian dollar.
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Old Dec 5th 2007, 7:33 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

True. All major currencies have dropped significantly in value over the last five years or so, except against iPods and HDTVs.
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Old Dec 6th 2007, 3:11 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by MarkG View Post
True. All major currencies have dropped significantly in value over the last five years or so, except against iPods and HDTVs.
Dropped in value against what? (iPods and HDTVs excepted)

Betfair in the UK are giving best odds on a .25% cut, which will be the worst thing possible for the UK economy, and a disaster for Sterling, although we've seen most of that expectation priced in today.

If it's a hold (unlikely) or raise (even more unlikely, but necessary) Sterling will take off and I think we'll be back to 2.15 within a week or so.
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Old Dec 6th 2007, 3:18 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by geedee View Post
Dropped in value against what? (iPods and HDTVs excepted)
Houses, gold, oil, food... what haven't they dropped against other than consumer electronics?

In 2002 oil was around $30 a barrel and gold around $350 an ounce; today oil is near $100 a barrel and gold around $800 an ounce. Just to give two examples.

Even allowing for the rise in the pound against the dollar, it's dropped substantially against both of those.

Last edited by MarkG; Dec 6th 2007 at 3:20 am.
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Old Dec 6th 2007, 3:25 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by MarkG View Post
Houses, gold, oil, food... what haven't they dropped against other than consumer electronics?

In 2002 oil was around $30 a barrel and gold around $350 an ounce; today oil is near $100 a barrel and gold around $800 an ounce. Just to give two examples.

Even allowing for the rise in the pound against the dollar, it's dropped substantially against both of those.
True. Will we need wheelbarrows full of cash soon to buy a BigMac?

It's all a bit worrying really!
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Old Dec 6th 2007, 3:53 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

I just looked back at page 1 of this thread.... and wept!
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Old Dec 6th 2007, 4:00 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by MarkG View Post
Houses, gold, oil, food... what haven't they dropped against other than consumer electronics?

In 2002 oil was around $30 a barrel and gold around $350 an ounce; today oil is near $100 a barrel and gold around $800 an ounce. Just to give two examples.

Even allowing for the rise in the pound against the dollar, it's dropped substantially against both of those.
$800 an ounce gold is not much when you consider that the average price for 1980 was $612 an ounce. factor in inflation, and $800 is not at the same level as 1980
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Old Dec 6th 2007, 4:05 am
  #824  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by dakota44 View Post
$800 an ounce gold is not much when you consider that the average price for 1980 was $612 an ounce. factor in inflation, and $800 is not at the same level as 1980
Who cares? 1980 was a bubble, and $800 an ounce is a lot more than $350 an ounce was five years ago.
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Old Dec 6th 2007, 4:06 am
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by dakota44 View Post
$800 an ounce gold is not much when you consider that the average price for 1980 was $612 an ounce. factor in inflation, and $800 is not at the same level as 1980
It was less than 300 in 99/01. How does that tally?
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