Paul Wildy

Yeah but you probably did do the right thing though if you moved some money accross. A good currency specialist will always tell you to exchange funds in stages, not all at once, to spread the risk. E.g. if you moved all a few weeks ago at 1.95 you'd be really pissed now that the rate seems to be back on the up but if you moved a third or half well at least you would still have the opportunity to get a better rate on the balance.

Iain Mc

Yeah, I've split it into four exchanges since late summer, I have one left and am currently averaging 2.04. I had to move a load last week as we're (hopefully) going to be completing on a property soon.

I can sit on the last one until the new year, potentially, although may shift it soon if it'll improve the average any.

We shall see, I reckon the BofE will end up chopping rates faster than the BofC when they start to fall, and can't really see any prospect of a major rise in favour of sterling. But I'm pretty useless on the markets overall, so that's probably nonsense

cneldred

I can see you reasoning for that comment, however Bank of England said today they didn't give a hoot about the housing market, therefore the move. Whilst Bank of Canada are very worried about the strong Canadian Dollar, therefore BofC will lead with rate cuts based on those comments. Should the UK housing market crash and it spill over into the economy in general then BofE have to cut like mad. There argument for not cutting now is that it takes 12-18 months for a rate move to hit economy therefore cutting now isn't gonna save housing market from puking, if housing market is gonna go there is nothing they can do now to stop it.

Chris

mclauchlan35

I can't see the BofE holding off much longer before cutting regardless what they say, I think it will start to kick into the economy real soon, many of my clients are coming off rates between 4 and 5% adding a roughly an average of £100 and upwards on to their mortgage repayments. And with many households having so much other debt borrowed whilst lending was cheap Its really going to bite hard.

I kinda think personal spending will reduce at speed as all the interest rate rises of the last 18 months really kick in which may mean that the exchange rate may still have a lot of jumping around yet. Although Chris is probably a better judge of this than me.

Hope it works out for the best for those moving

Danny

geedee

There's talk now of UK rates rising.

Based on previous logic, that probably means a drop against the loonie!

Who on earth can tell?? You makes your bed, you lie in it.

Danny B

Another email

In this week's update:
Sterling dodges the bullets
- Dodge wings the Loonie
- MPC minutes suggest softer touch

Sterling moved immediately ahead from its $2.00 opening last Monday. By Tuesday night it was up to $2.04 and it tried repeatedly and fruitless to break above that level. The Pound opened this morning in London at $2.03.

The Canadian Dollar has halted its slide against the US Dollar. It managed to hold above US$1.01 without too much puffing and wheezing. Against Sterling it was held back by its association with the high-yield commodity currencies which were all out of favour for the first four days of the week.

The Canadian data presented an intriguing picture. Retail sales fell by 0.2 per cent in September and consumer inflation slowed from 2.5 to 2.4 per cent. Meanwhile, Canadians made more than two million same day there-and-back trips across the border, the highest monthly number for six years. The strength of the Canadian Dollar is encouraging cross-border shopping and domestic retailers are having to cut prices to compete with motorised and internet-enabled customers.

It did not feel like it at the time Sterling actually had a reasonable week on most fronts, although not against the Yen or the Euro. Whilst there was little in the way of hard economic data to help Sterling, the figures that could have hurt failed to do much damage. When the brightest light on the positive side was an improvement in the CBI's Industrial Trends Survey from +6 to +8 per cent you can see how Sterling was scraping the barrel. The negative news came from lower house prices and an unexpectedly low figure for third quarter economic growth.

The minutes of the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting revealed that Deputy Governor John Gieve voted for an interest rate cut. He is usually considered a policy hawk, inclined towards tighter monetary policy, so his vote for a rate cut gave greater weight to the Bank's recent bearish inflation report.

The Loonie has settled back down towards parity with the US Dollar and the playing field it shares with the Pound has become a little more level. Presumably with foreknowledge of last week's inflation figures Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge hinted that the central bank would consider an interest rate cut if the economy needed it. His comments hurt the Canadian Dollar. The cards are no longer stacked so clearly in the Loonie's favour but Sterling still looks uneasy. Buyers of the Canadian Dollar should hedge exposures that remain unprotected and raise the trigger level for any stop orders.

chinook

"Buyers of the Canadian Dollar should hedge exposures that remain unprotected and raise the trigger level for any stop orders".

Can somebody put this in more simplistic terms?

I am a little bit lost with this statement and probably like everybody else I am carefully watching the exchange rate.

Ta

cneldred

it english it means they think this rally is short lived.

geedee

Popped above 2.06 today!

Please don't say it's a blip.... I'm hanging on for more upward moves. My gut feeling is nulab will be kicked into touch very soon after the latest scandal, and a Tory at No. 10 will help the pound.

Iain Mc

That's a lovely theory but alas for us it'll come too late

Still, them's the breaks.

geedee

Well, win some, lose some. At least you had savings to change! A lot of people can't say that these days. And if you made it from a UK house sale, I think you'll be thanking your lucky stars over the next year, whatever you exchanged at!

Iain Mc

Oh yeah, we've no complaints, it was our choice to come here, and the wonderful view of the snowy mountains this morning was priceless!

Edna Bucket

It means a) Don't gamble with funds that you don't actually have to hand and b) If you have planned to exchange funds when the rate reaches a certain level you might want to reconsider and up it a notch or two.

Just Moneycorp being their usual enigmatic selves!

rach_woz99

Woo hoo!!

2.08 - I'm getting itchy fingers, I wonder if we'll get back to the magic 2.10??

Rob_999

Another 0.25 cut expected in Jan, but then who knows whats going to happen back in the UK....

If it hits 2.1 - then i'm changing at least half my pounds...