Exchange rate
May 21st 2007, 4:40 pm
#211
Tea Drinker
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Posts: 5,387
Re: Exchange rate
I have just received my weekly email from a currency specialist.
Canada romps, Sterling collapses
Sterling collapsed against the Loonie, but so did every other currency. The pound fell steadily from 2.17 to 2.14 over the week and looked to be heading lower as the new week beckoned.
The US Dollar had a relatively good week as fears of a hard landing for the economy waned. The first quarter reporting season is almost over and expectations that profit would be in single figures has been thwarted. Record highs in the Dow Jones seem relentless. The current week should bring strong durable goods orders and more stable housing data.
Unlike the situation to the South there is still no immediate prospect of Canadian interest rates moving lower. The prices of energy and raw materials continue to rise. Manufacturing expanded slightly in February, the economy is growing at a healthy pace. There is the odd fly in the economic ointment. Only one in three industrial sectors reported increase production. Retail sales were relatively flat. Nevertheless, those commodity prices are still helping the Canadian Dollar to hold its head higher than the Greenback - assisted, it must be said, by a rash of M&A activity among foreign investors. The Canadian economy is not being dragged down by the slowdown in the States and neither is the Loonie.
The rise in base rate has failed to elevate the pound. Signs are that the housing market is about to chill. Whether this is because prices have finally reached a peak or because nobody has a clear idea what the introduction of HIPS on the 1st June will do, is open to interpretation. At the end of the week we received news that retail sales in April had been very disappointing. When added to the news from Next that the first two weeks of May had been ‘dire’ it was inevitable that Sterling would fall a little.
The pound has had a sustained fall against the Loonie since the halcyon days of 2.30. Momentum is strong but at 2.1375 the movement looks overdone in the short term. Looks sure to retrace to 2.18 before plunging to last years levels near 2.00.
So what to do?
Take advantage of any upward blip, the momentum is strong and a rout is possible.
Canada romps, Sterling collapses
Sterling collapsed against the Loonie, but so did every other currency. The pound fell steadily from 2.17 to 2.14 over the week and looked to be heading lower as the new week beckoned.
The US Dollar had a relatively good week as fears of a hard landing for the economy waned. The first quarter reporting season is almost over and expectations that profit would be in single figures has been thwarted. Record highs in the Dow Jones seem relentless. The current week should bring strong durable goods orders and more stable housing data.
Unlike the situation to the South there is still no immediate prospect of Canadian interest rates moving lower. The prices of energy and raw materials continue to rise. Manufacturing expanded slightly in February, the economy is growing at a healthy pace. There is the odd fly in the economic ointment. Only one in three industrial sectors reported increase production. Retail sales were relatively flat. Nevertheless, those commodity prices are still helping the Canadian Dollar to hold its head higher than the Greenback - assisted, it must be said, by a rash of M&A activity among foreign investors. The Canadian economy is not being dragged down by the slowdown in the States and neither is the Loonie.
The rise in base rate has failed to elevate the pound. Signs are that the housing market is about to chill. Whether this is because prices have finally reached a peak or because nobody has a clear idea what the introduction of HIPS on the 1st June will do, is open to interpretation. At the end of the week we received news that retail sales in April had been very disappointing. When added to the news from Next that the first two weeks of May had been ‘dire’ it was inevitable that Sterling would fall a little.
The pound has had a sustained fall against the Loonie since the halcyon days of 2.30. Momentum is strong but at 2.1375 the movement looks overdone in the short term. Looks sure to retrace to 2.18 before plunging to last years levels near 2.00.
So what to do?
Take advantage of any upward blip, the momentum is strong and a rout is possible.
May 21st 2007, 4:42 pm
#212
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 386
Re: Exchange rate
Just worked out the difference between 2.32 and 2.13 .
With the funds we will have it amounts to $15,000.
I really wish I hadn't worked it out.
I am now going to find a quiet corner to sulk
With the funds we will have it amounts to $15,000.
I really wish I hadn't worked it out.
I am now going to find a quiet corner to sulk
May 21st 2007, 5:01 pm
#213
Tea Drinker
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Posts: 5,387
Re: Exchange rate
I have lost (well since $2.35) the amount equal to a *brand new* Subaru Impreza WRX 
Do I look bovered? err well yes actually
Do I look bovered? err well yes actually
May 21st 2007, 6:28 pm
#214
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2006
Location: The Vancouver Suburbs... for the next few years anyway!
Posts: 558
Re: Exchange rate
Oh god... this is going to finish me off!!! $2.00 to the £??? What on earth!!!
Can anything save us from exchange poverty?
Can anything save us from exchange poverty?
May 29th 2007, 12:24 pm
#216
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2005
Location: Was Brentwood, Essex Now Wasaga Beach, Ontario
Posts: 895
Re: Exchange rate
Bank of Canada rate decision at 2pm London time today... no change expected however if they were to surprise it would be a hike rather than a cut. Obviously, all of us waiting to change sterling into Canadian Dollars are praying for a rate cut.
May 29th 2007, 12:31 pm
#217
Joined: Apr 2005
Posts: 9,606
Re: Exchange rate
Particularly those of us who get paid this Thursday..........
May 29th 2007, 12:36 pm
#218
Tea Drinker
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Posts: 5,387
May 29th 2007, 1:00 pm
#220
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2005
Location: Was Brentwood, Essex Now Wasaga Beach, Ontario
Posts: 895
Re: Exchange rate
bank of canada unchanged, tilting towards rate hikes possibly as early as july.
May 29th 2007, 2:11 pm
#221
Tea Drinker
Thread Starter
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Kamloops, BC
Posts: 5,387
May 29th 2007, 2:15 pm
#222
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2005
Location: Was Brentwood, Essex Now Wasaga Beach, Ontario
Posts: 895
Re: Exchange rate
i think we see it lower, unfortunately since i have another 2 months until we are in a position to change up....just hope the Bank of England have to be mroe aggressive now the HIP changes have been announced.
CAD$ has moved from 2.14 before Bank of Canada to present rate of 2.12.
CAD$ has moved from 2.14 before Bank of Canada to present rate of 2.12.
May 29th 2007, 2:38 pm
#223
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Prince George
Posts: 317
Re: Exchange rate
i think we see it lower, unfortunately since i have another 2 months until we are in a position to change up....just hope the Bank of England have to be mroe aggressive now the HIP changes have been announced.
CAD$ has moved from 2.14 before Bank of Canada to present rate of 2.12.
CAD$ has moved from 2.14 before Bank of Canada to present rate of 2.12.
May 29th 2007, 2:40 pm
#224
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2005
Location: Was Brentwood, Essex Now Wasaga Beach, Ontario
Posts: 895
Re: Exchange rate
we have another hike priced in june or july. talk of 50bp last time scared the hell out of the market. I personally expect them to hold off for another month and go in July.
May 29th 2007, 2:40 pm
#225
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2006
Location: The Vancouver Suburbs... for the next few years anyway!
Posts: 558
Re: Exchange rate
I can't believe how bad it is right now... we're actually thinking of not transferring all our pounds, getting a bigger mortgage and then paying it off when we get a better rate!!! Is this insane?