kamikaze

Well I am reading it trying to learn but to be honest it all sounds like blurb !
I need a book at the computer to tell me what all the terms mean !

Alan2005

I would expect that it's based on some benchmark rate - such as LIBOR.

It's not quite the same as taking on a 25 year float/fixed IRS. Would the clearing house really want the kind of risk that comes with committing to 25 years of payments at some rate that is out of their control? I guess it's possible if the counterparties had to maintain their margin accounts at a level where they could make a certain number of future payments. Messy, but, you are right, it could be done.

kamikaze

Lets just cut to it lads...................I have a wad of Wonga that needs to be turned into loonys, when and where ? are we headin up or doon

Alan2005

In the next few months - I'd say up. 1.75 feels right to me so that's where I think it's going to end up.

(I'm not, nor have I ever been a trader of any kind, let alone FX)

cneldred

I would agree the trend is definitely up, and that is despite the rate hikes from Bank of Canada.

Watch China very carefully, panic over there will cause Loonie to get killed.

Charts mean nothing at the moment, this market is news driven.

kamikaze

Thats what I like from you lads, some good old easy speak, my dumb ears need plain english. I hope and pray for 1.8 or there abouts

The4BellsLondon

you better not - it will upset the kittens!

cneldred

when i said despite rate hikes, that is a huge sign of the trend. Rate hikes usually strengthen a currency, all part of the carry trade, since Bank of Canada started hiking the Loonie has weakened against GBP. Not what you expect, therefore as far as i am concerned the run on GBP was a huge over selling based on projections of a downgrade on UK debt linked to worries about Hung Parliament. I would expect us to settle back to mid 1.70, but doubt you will see 1.80 anytime soon, unless of course Bank of England put rates up, which there is not a hope in hell of happening.

minymin

The Canadian dollar fell today as the macroeconomic data slashed the forecasts for Canada’s economic expansion and curbed the demand for the Canadian currency. This month can become the worst month for the loonie since May 2010.

The Canadian economy, which was previously considered very stable, continues to show the signs of weakness. The current account deficit widened by $2.6 billion to reach C$11.0 billion in the second quarter, compared to the forecast value of C$10.2 billion. The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) rose 0.1 percent in July, following the 0.9 percent decline earlier. The predicted value was 0.5 percent.

The loonie was also weakened by the influence from beyond Canada, specifically the decline of the equities and crude oil, two main drivers of the Canadian currency. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index went down 0.8 percent. October futures for crude oil delivery fell 0.7 percent to $74.67 per barrel.

USD/CAD went up from 1.0500 to 1.0595 today as of 22:26 GMT after declining previously to 1.0470. EUR/CAD traded near 1.3425, following the drop to 1.3317.

If you want to comment on <snip> recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

JonboyE

I don't think a fall in the value of the loonie is a bad thing at all.

scottymallo

What's happen to the pound? seems to have taken a right bashing in last couple of days dropped off from the lofty highs of 1.64 back to below the 1.6 mark again!

The Esses

Yep...watching that closely.

What happened to the 1.75 prediction?!

Alan2005

I stand by it. Though it is a prediction, not a fact. If I knew what it was going to be I'd never have to work again.

loser40

I really feel for all of you who are in the immigration process. You probably got the ball rolling years ago when the exchange rate was usually $2+ to the UK pound, and now look at it.

I still don't see why Sterling has been so hard hit. The economy growth figures are usually better than expected and the national debt isn't so large as many analysts make out - we are basically in the same boat as other nations but for some reason are getting a kicking from the doom mongers.

Hopefully China will need to unpeg is currency and let the market decide it's true value and America will realise it needs to print more money... these two things alone should help.

Again, my heart goes out to those are in the position of needing to exchange currency now, taking a 20% hit on what you currently get, and what you thought you'd get can't be easy.

QUESTIONS...

Just out of curiosity, what are the feelings of forum members on the current situation - will the exchange rate effect your decision to make the move to Canada, or will it merely delay it untill the financial markets calm down.

How high, or low, would the exchange rate need to be in order for you exchange funds for Canadian dollars, or postpone your move abroad ?

Mark.

helcat12

Admittedly, we haven't been at this as long as some, but even we have seen the buying power of our £s go down a lot. When it is the value of your house equity, a little drop equates to big money. Add to that the housing market decline and we are hit on both fronts.
If all goes to plan we will get PR next year Easter to summer and we are hoping by that time the rate of exchange will be a little healthier for people transferring £ to $CAD. But I believe it is best to work on the worst case scenario as far as assessing budget for our home in Canada and then any extra will be a bonus. It may mean we can't afford exactly what we want at the start, so I have just had to think creatively and make plans that can be accommodated by our minimum budget if needs be. That might mean renting or living in a trailer on our plot for a while before we build our house, but it will not stop me going to reunite with my husband! NO WAY!
I'd rather be 'trailer trash'!