Exchange rate

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Old May 13th 2010, 4:45 pm
  #2446  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by Atlantic Xpat
When I first visited NL in 02 the exchange rate was around $2.45. I spent money like a drunken sailor as everything was so cheap by comparison. Nowadays, I lament that the price of a pint here is more than the price of a pint back in Blighty.
Never mind, there are no pubs left to drink in now - they've all shut down.
Time to reconsider home brewing
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Old May 13th 2010, 5:42 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by TheBear
There are rumours of the Germans ditching the Euro, if that happens it's hard to say what will happen to the pound, but I susepct it will be seen as weaker.
I'd like to see the source of that rumour cos rumour has it that it came from a gold broker (who would clearly has a VI in cash instability).
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Old May 13th 2010, 6:18 pm
  #2448  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by TheBear
and on the BBC 1.499. Looking back, it was only 2005 that you could get nearly 2.50, and in 1996 $2.60...those days will never come again (this side of Peak Oil), the Uk is in terminal decline.

Edited to add: This must surely be an all time low. I've gone back 15 years and it's never been this low.
Terminal decline???

It has pretty much hit it's low.

Britain did not get involved in the Greece Bail Out- thus maintaining it's position as a safe haven for currency outside of the Eurozone.

There is unlikely to be anymore quantative easing.

The government has already started putting in place debt cutting measures.

They have also found Oil in the Falklands.

Anyone still holding pounds and assets in pounds needs to sit tight and keep their nerve.

The Canadian dollar is unsustainable- I was shopping in the US last week and spent my year's clothing budget there. No one will buy Canadian at the current exchange rate.
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Old May 13th 2010, 6:36 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by JamesM
Terminal decline???

It has pretty much hit it's low.

Britain did not get involved in the Greece Bail Out- thus maintaining it's position as a safe haven for currency outside of the Eurozone.

There is unlikely to be anymore quantative easing.

The government has already started putting in place debt cutting measures.

They have also found Oil in the Falklands.

Anyone still holding pounds and assets in pounds needs to sit tight and keep their nerve.

The Canadian dollar is unsustainable- I was shopping in the US last week and spent my year's clothing budget there. No one will buy Canadian at the current exchange rate.
I agree. We all know that 1.50 is too low and that things priced in GBP look cheap to those of us earning CAD.
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Old May 13th 2010, 6:38 pm
  #2450  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by Alan2005
I agree. We all know that 1.50 is too low and that things priced in GBP look cheap to those of us earning CAD.
So is shipping spare CAD over to GBP a good idea at the moment?
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Old May 13th 2010, 6:43 pm
  #2451  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty
So is shipping spare CAD over to GBP a good idea at the moment?
no wait for parity
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:09 pm
  #2452  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty
So is shipping spare CAD over to GBP a good idea at the moment?
I think so. But I don't have any spare at the mo- so it's easy to say. I think you would definately see a good return you just may have to wait 2 or 3 years.
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:13 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

[QUOTE=JamesM;8563469]Terminal decline???

IIt has pretty much hit it's low.
Says who?

Britain did not get involved in the Greece Bail Out- thus maintaining it's position as a safe haven for currency outside of the Eurozone.
Yes it did UK is a member IMF
From the Times
About €440 billion of loans will be underwritten over a three-year period by the more creditworthy members of the 16-nation eurozone. Another €60 billion will be set aside for an EU stabilisation fund for balance of payments assistance — Britain is set to chip in up to €15 billion to this — and there will be a €250 billion top-up from the IMF.

There is unlikely to be anymore quantative easing.
I would not bet on that either

The government has already started putting in place debt cutting measures.

6 Billion is a drop in the ocean come back when this clock has been going down for a few months. The UK went bust in 1976 running a budget deficit of 6% of GDP. In 2010 that deficit is going to top 12%
http://www.debtbombshell.com/

They have also found Oil in the Falklands.
Probably enough tax revenue to pay for a couple cruise missiles at most

Anyone still holding pounds and assets in pounds needs to sit tight and keep their nerve.
Or sell rather than wait for the bottom of the market.

Seems to be plenty wanting to buy the Canadian Dollar on the FX currency markets.
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:24 pm
  #2454  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Terminal decline???

It has pretty much hit it's low. We haven't even started paying back the debt, and will continue to increase our debt until at least 2014. Public services are going to be cut back massively and unemployment will go over 3 million. Social divisions are worse than ever, and the general population is in a tonne of debt. Things have not hit their low by any means.

Britain did not get involved in the Greece Bail Out- thus maintaining it's position as a safe haven for currency outside of the Eurozone. Britain has a similar deficit this year to Greece, and it's national debt is hurtling towards 80% (above 90% is unsustainable). Britain has no one but the IMF to turn to if things go wrong. I don't think we'll get to that point as the Tories would rather savage the NHS before going cup in hand. However, the financial markets will take another hit soon, and our property bubble will finally burst, possibly bringing a bank or two down. Britain is not a safe haven

There is unlikely to be anymore quantative easing. True, the markets would send us to hell in a basket if we went down that road

The government has already started putting in place debt cutting measures. Wrong (like the vast majority who do not know the difference between debt and deficit) It has not put in place any debt cutting measures, it has put in place measures to reduce (very slightly) the huge deficit in our budget for this year. Debt is still growing. The deficit is about £170 billion, Cameron will reduce that by maybe 5-10 billion, that means our debt will still grow by £160 billion this year to well over £1 trillion.

They have also found Oil in the Falklands. Have you not seen the TV in the last few weeks. Deep water drilling is very hard, and will now be subject to all kinds of international scrutiny. There are also questions about the quality of the finds in the Falklands. It is not the North Sea, and will not deliver the same kind of revenue as that squandered opportunity did. Canada, although not without it's own environmental issues, is much better placed than the UK for Oil and all energy. We have a tiny amount generated by renewables, took too long to think about replacing our nuclear power stations and will face power cuts by the middle of this decade.

Anyone still holding pounds and assets in pounds needs to sit tight and keep their nerve. I think people were saying that when the pound was $1.90.

The Canadian dollar is unsustainable- I was shopping in the US last week and spent my year's clothing budget there. No one will buy Canadian at the current exchange rate. This may be true for manufactured goods, but not commodities.

I do think canada will have a second dip once China goes pop, and Europe goes back under, but it is much better placed than the UK to take advantage of any growth coming down the track later in this decade.
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:26 pm
  #2455  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

I can't speak to the long term, but right now the pound seems to be collapsing. It's just lost another $0.0219 down to $1.4896.
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:28 pm
  #2456  
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Default Re: Exchange rate

[QUOTE=Mike Gas;8563569]
Originally Posted by JamesM
Terminal decline???

IIt has pretty much hit it's low.
Says who? Says me. The market has taken into account all the bad news what further bad news is to come from the UK?

Britain did not get involved in the Greece Bail Out- thus maintaining it's position as a safe haven for currency outside of the Eurozone.
Yes it did UK is a member IMF
From the Times
About €440 billion of loans will be underwritten over a three-year period by the more creditworthy members of the 16-nation eurozone. Another €60 billion will be set aside for an EU stabilisation fund for balance of payments assistance — Britain is set to chip in up to €15 billion to this — and there will be a €250 billion top-up from the IMF.
In which case why were the European's so angry at Britain's refusal to take part according to multiple media sources

There is unlikely to be anymore quantative easing.
I would not bet on that either Who cares what you would bet on; we are not talking about your gambling we are discussing foreign exchange

The government has already started putting in place debt cutting measures.

6 Billion is a drop in the ocean come back when this clock has been going down for a few months. The UK went bust in 1976 running a budget deficit of 6% of GDP. In 2010 that deficit is going to top 12%
http://www.debtbombshell.com/
6 billion is just the beginning. You are belittling your own point above about the 15 billion by talking of drop's

They have also found Oil in the Falklands.
Probably enough tax revenue to pay for a couple cruise missiles at most
If you knew anything about Oil and the cost of extraction and how deep that sea is you would know that the find is more

Anyone still holding pounds and assets in pounds needs to sit tight and keep their nerve.
Or sell rather than wait for the bottom of the market.
Yes sell when everyone else is selling. Hurd theory is the worst way to speculate with your money

Seems to be plenty wanting to buy the Canadian Dollar on the FX currency markets.
I have already covered of hurd theory. For further financial advice I suggest you do some homework on Warren Buffet.

Here endith the lesson on how to edit and comment properly.
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:33 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

So I said, dont worry to the wife, i'll just checkout whats being said on the britishexpats forum, in the exchange rate thread......
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:35 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by TheBear
Terminal decline???

It has pretty much hit it's low. We haven't even started paying back the debt, and will continue to increase our debt until at least 2014. Public services are going to be cut back massively and unemployment will go over 3 million. Social divisions are worse than ever, and the general population is in a tonne of debt. Things have not hit their low by any means.

Britain did not get involved in the Greece Bail Out- thus maintaining it's position as a safe haven for currency outside of the Eurozone. Britain has a similar deficit this year to Greece, and it's national debt is hurtling towards 80% (above 90% is unsustainable). Britain has no one but the IMF to turn to if things go wrong. I don't think we'll get to that point as the Tories would rather savage the NHS before going cup in hand. However, the financial markets will take another hit soon, and our property bubble will finally burst, possibly bringing a bank or two down. Britain is not a safe haven

There is unlikely to be anymore quantative easing. True, the markets would send us to hell in a basket if we went down that road

The government has already started putting in place debt cutting measures. Wrong (like the vast majority who do not know the difference between debt and deficit) It has not put in place any debt cutting measures, it has put in place measures to reduce (very slightly) the huge deficit in our budget for this year. Debt is still growing. The deficit is about £170 billion, Cameron will reduce that by maybe 5-10 billion, that means our debt will still grow by £160 billion this year to well over £1 trillion.

They have also found Oil in the Falklands. Have you not seen the TV in the last few weeks. Deep water drilling is very hard, and will now be subject to all kinds of international scrutiny. There are also questions about the quality of the finds in the Falklands. It is not the North Sea, and will not deliver the same kind of revenue as that squandered opportunity did. Canada, although not without it's own environmental issues, is much better placed than the UK for Oil and all energy. We have a tiny amount generated by renewables, took too long to think about replacing our nuclear power stations and will face power cuts by the middle of this decade.

Anyone still holding pounds and assets in pounds needs to sit tight and keep their nerve. I think people were saying that when the pound was $1.90.

The Canadian dollar is unsustainable- I was shopping in the US last week and spent my year's clothing budget there. No one will buy Canadian at the current exchange rate. This may be true for manufactured goods, but not commodities.

I do think canada will have a second dip once China goes pop, and Europe goes back under, but it is much better placed than the UK to take advantage of any growth coming down the track later in this decade.
All your points are already factored into the current exchange rate. But good effort.

Stop trying to panic people.

The only intelligent thing in your post is that it was only $1.90 a short time ago. By your own admission this proves that currency fluctuations can move quickly so selling now would be stupid when things could start to head in the other direction quickly.
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:38 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

The great Canadian economy:

http://www.debtclock.ca/
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Old May 13th 2010, 7:39 pm
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Default Re: Exchange rate

Originally Posted by JamesM
I think so. But I don't have any spare at the mo- so it's easy to say. I think you would definately see a good return you just may have to wait 2 or 3 years.
Originally Posted by JamesM
The only intelligent thing in your post is that it was only $1.90 a short time ago. By your own admission this proves that currency fluctuations can move quickly so selling now would be stupid when things could start to head in the other direction quickly.
Is 2-3 years quick?
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