Exchange rate
Nov 15th 2008, 3:19 am
#1683
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Nusajaya
Posts: 2,327
Re: Exchange rate
Not really true. The tar sands are viable at around the $40 mark. The major cost in producing from the tar sands is the ridiculous amount of energy that is used for extracting the oil compared to just drilling a hole in the ground, but the upshot of falling oil prices should also be falling energy costs. Short term there my be some issues with expensive contracts, but once those expire the economics should fall back into place.
The other issue is with the recovery of Canada's heavy oil reserves which appear to be produced without any thought at all for optimization of energy costs vs recovery. Perhaps the operators of these reserves will now put some thought into what they are doing which will benefit both their profits and the environment.
So there is still quite some way to go before Canada won't be an oil producer
The other issue is with the recovery of Canada's heavy oil reserves which appear to be produced without any thought at all for optimization of energy costs vs recovery. Perhaps the operators of these reserves will now put some thought into what they are doing which will benefit both their profits and the environment.
So there is still quite some way to go before Canada won't be an oil producer
The bottom line is, I don't see Canada escaping the global realities, despite their natural resources. They're only worth what people will pay....
Nov 15th 2008, 11:22 am
#1684
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: My Utopia Nova Scotia!
Posts: 1,368
Re: Exchange rate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7727399.stm
panic panic mr mainwaring
it could get worse im trying to move as much as poss to canadian accounts as fast as poss
still waiting for iceland cash though:curse:
panic panic mr mainwaring
it could get worse im trying to move as much as poss to canadian accounts as fast as poss
still waiting for iceland cash though:curse:
Nov 15th 2008, 12:14 pm
#1685
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 75
Re: Exchange rate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7727399.stm
panic panic mr mainwaring
it could get worse im trying to move as much as poss to canadian accounts as fast as poss
still waiting for iceland cash though:curse:
panic panic mr mainwaring
it could get worse im trying to move as much as poss to canadian accounts as fast as poss
still waiting for iceland cash though:curse:
) but if you look at the history of sterling-CAD exchange rates, we are currently at an historically very low rate. It was last down to $1.80 in 1993, and to get below £1.80 you have to go all the way back to 1985, when it was below that level from Dec 84 - Sep 85, bottoming out at $1.47. I used the graph facility at http://www.discount-currency-exchange.com to get these figures. No-one can predict the future, but maybe looking at past performance is the next best thing.So, while I need to buy CAD sometime over the next few months, I'm not going to rush in now.
Nov 15th 2008, 3:11 pm
#1686
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2005
Location: Was Brentwood, Essex Now Wasaga Beach, Ontario
Posts: 895
Re: Exchange rate
Why not quote the dates on those and then you can look at the major market moving factors that have happened since then....like pretty much half of the banks in the western world being bailed out or taken over by the respective governments.
So when oil broke $90 and shot up to $150 i wasn't right for months!!!! As a trader i know how to trade it, do yourself a favour find out what a trailing stop is.
So when oil broke $90 and shot up to $150 i wasn't right for months!!!! As a trader i know how to trade it, do yourself a favour find out what a trailing stop is.
Last edited by cneldred; Nov 15th 2008 at 3:17 pm.
Nov 15th 2008, 3:23 pm
#1687
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2008
Location: Barrie
Posts: 349
Re: Exchange rate
IMO, gbp/cad could bounce back to 1.90 (or not) as its extremely over bought but with sterling disintegrating against the can $ even in the face of oil totally collapsing does not bode well for sterling.
The US dollar is a basket case and could possibly go the way of german currency of the 20`s or the Zimbabwee $, if so oil will go into the 100`s and the cad $ will be seen as a safe haven.
I can see gbp/cad eventually at 1.50 if not lower i`m afraid.
The US dollar is a basket case and could possibly go the way of german currency of the 20`s or the Zimbabwee $, if so oil will go into the 100`s and the cad $ will be seen as a safe haven.
I can see gbp/cad eventually at 1.50 if not lower i`m afraid.
Anyone holding out for Sterling to break $2 again may be in for a lifetime wait! Brown is determined to bankrupt us, and everyone else can se that.
FX is a strange market though, and who knows, it could all completely change if everyone cuts taxes and IRs at the same time.
Nov 16th 2008, 12:26 am
#1688
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Nusajaya
Posts: 2,327
Re: Exchange rate
You are right, but not for a year or two IMO. Oil is going to stay down, and the dollar up for six months at least, it may even go down to $40, which may cause Canada's economy to start going down seriously. When Oil rises again, I expect it will be reasonably quick, and yes, the Loonie will be the currency to hold.
Anyone holding out for Sterling to break $2 again may be in for a lifetime wait! Brown is determined to bankrupt us, and everyone else can se that.
FX is a strange market though, and who knows, it could all completely change if everyone cuts taxes and IRs at the same time.
Anyone holding out for Sterling to break $2 again may be in for a lifetime wait! Brown is determined to bankrupt us, and everyone else can se that.
FX is a strange market though, and who knows, it could all completely change if everyone cuts taxes and IRs at the same time.
Nulabia are not pro-UK, and everyone can see that. They'll be gone soon, fingers crossed.
Nov 17th 2008, 3:48 pm
#1689
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2008
Location: London
Posts: 51
Re: Exchange rate
Brown won't last forever, thank God. Once the UK has a government that puts the UK's interests first and foremost, and stops all this "New World Order' crap that brown waffles about every chance he gets, the better.
Nulabia are not pro-UK, and everyone can see that. They'll be gone soon, fingers crossed.
Nulabia are not pro-UK, and everyone can see that. They'll be gone soon, fingers crossed.
Different band, same tune.
Nov 18th 2008, 3:44 pm
#1690
Wanna-be Canadian
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 176
Re: Exchange rate
Here's my 2 cents - which used to be worth a dollar 
I reckon the price of oil may well remain low for many many months yet. You should remember that OPEC members only produce around 40% of the worlds oil supply, and all non OPEC countries such as Iran and Russia etc are heavily dependent on income from there own oil reserves. As the price per barrel drops they will simply pump more and more barrels to achieve the revenues each of there countries requires to function & survive - it's a vicious circle that may bring oil prices down further still.
As for the US dollar rise, I reckon that the USA haven't been as transparent as the UK. Brown has painted a more accurate, but bleak picture of the UK economy, and the short term effect of his stance is a weakening of sterling... but, if you examine the amount of cash Brown has set aside for UK banks etc, the UK amount proportionately dwarfs that of America and the vast majority of other countries. The UK has a more realistic 'war chest' in cash reserves to pump into its system. IMO the USA government have massively underestimated the cash they will need to help there banks, and as a consequence they will need to pump literally billions more dollars into there system, which in turn will weaken the dollar.
Don't forget, the G20 world finance meeting has called for no protectionism of large corporations; IE the USA shouldn't bail out GM and/or Ford etc. The knock on effect of major USA companies failing will have a hugely detrimental effect on the USA economy and its greenback.
True, the UK is going to borrow more money than usual, but if you compare UK predicted total borrowing to other industrialised western countries in relation to GDP, the level of UK borrowing is still lower than Germany and the USA for example.
There is also a myth that the UK doesn't make anything anymore - in fact the UK is the worlds 6th largest exporter, and the current exchange rate is a good thing for UK manufacturing.
The BOE base rate cut of 1.5% with more cuts likely to be on the way can only be a good thing too, commercial interest rates, when finally passed onto to consumers and small business's, will see the UK benefit with its lowest rates for 50 years or so.
In short, IMO the sterling exchange rate fall is a short term thing, and as the true extent of the USA's and the EU economies becomes clear, the dollar and euro will weaken and the pound will bounce back.
M.
I reckon the price of oil may well remain low for many many months yet. You should remember that OPEC members only produce around 40% of the worlds oil supply, and all non OPEC countries such as Iran and Russia etc are heavily dependent on income from there own oil reserves. As the price per barrel drops they will simply pump more and more barrels to achieve the revenues each of there countries requires to function & survive - it's a vicious circle that may bring oil prices down further still.
As for the US dollar rise, I reckon that the USA haven't been as transparent as the UK. Brown has painted a more accurate, but bleak picture of the UK economy, and the short term effect of his stance is a weakening of sterling... but, if you examine the amount of cash Brown has set aside for UK banks etc, the UK amount proportionately dwarfs that of America and the vast majority of other countries. The UK has a more realistic 'war chest' in cash reserves to pump into its system. IMO the USA government have massively underestimated the cash they will need to help there banks, and as a consequence they will need to pump literally billions more dollars into there system, which in turn will weaken the dollar.
Don't forget, the G20 world finance meeting has called for no protectionism of large corporations; IE the USA shouldn't bail out GM and/or Ford etc. The knock on effect of major USA companies failing will have a hugely detrimental effect on the USA economy and its greenback.
True, the UK is going to borrow more money than usual, but if you compare UK predicted total borrowing to other industrialised western countries in relation to GDP, the level of UK borrowing is still lower than Germany and the USA for example.
There is also a myth that the UK doesn't make anything anymore - in fact the UK is the worlds 6th largest exporter, and the current exchange rate is a good thing for UK manufacturing.
The BOE base rate cut of 1.5% with more cuts likely to be on the way can only be a good thing too, commercial interest rates, when finally passed onto to consumers and small business's, will see the UK benefit with its lowest rates for 50 years or so.
In short, IMO the sterling exchange rate fall is a short term thing, and as the true extent of the USA's and the EU economies becomes clear, the dollar and euro will weaken and the pound will bounce back.
M.
Nov 18th 2008, 4:18 pm
#1691
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2008
Location: Barrie
Posts: 349
Re: Exchange rate
Unfortunately I think you'll find a big chunk of our exports are financial services...think you can safely say that won't be doing so well. I agree that the US dollar is over valued at the moment, and there will be a nasty correction.
Nov 18th 2008, 5:47 pm
#1692
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Nusajaya
Posts: 2,327
Re: Exchange rate
Here's my 2 cents - which used to be worth a dollar
I reckon the price of oil may well remain low for many many months yet. You should remember that OPEC members only produce around 40% of the worlds oil supply, and all non OPEC countries such as Iran and Russia etc are heavily dependent on income from there own oil reserves. As the price per barrel drops they will simply pump more and more barrels to achieve the revenues each of there countries requires to function & survive - it's a vicious circle that may bring oil prices down further still.
As for the US dollar rise, I reckon that the USA haven't been as transparent as the UK. Brown has painted a more accurate, but bleak picture of the UK economy, and the short term effect of his stance is a weakening of sterling... but, if you examine the amount of cash Brown has set aside for UK banks etc, the UK amount proportionately dwarfs that of America and the vast majority of other countries. The UK has a more realistic 'war chest' in cash reserves to pump into its system. IMO the USA government have massively underestimated the cash they will need to help there banks, and as a consequence they will need to pump literally billions more dollars into there system, which in turn will weaken the dollar.
Don't forget, the G20 world finance meeting has called for no protectionism of large corporations; IE the USA shouldn't bail out GM and/or Ford etc. The knock on effect of major USA companies failing will have a hugely detrimental effect on the USA economy and its greenback.
True, the UK is going to borrow more money than usual, but if you compare UK predicted total borrowing to other industrialised western countries in relation to GDP, the level of UK borrowing is still lower than Germany and the USA for example.
There is also a myth that the UK doesn't make anything anymore - in fact the UK is the worlds 6th largest exporter, and the current exchange rate is a good thing for UK manufacturing.
The BOE base rate cut of 1.5% with more cuts likely to be on the way can only be a good thing too, commercial interest rates, when finally passed onto to consumers and small business's, will see the UK benefit with its lowest rates for 50 years or so.
In short, IMO the sterling exchange rate fall is a short term thing, and as the true extent of the USA's and the EU economies becomes clear, the dollar and euro will weaken and the pound will bounce back.
M.
I reckon the price of oil may well remain low for many many months yet. You should remember that OPEC members only produce around 40% of the worlds oil supply, and all non OPEC countries such as Iran and Russia etc are heavily dependent on income from there own oil reserves. As the price per barrel drops they will simply pump more and more barrels to achieve the revenues each of there countries requires to function & survive - it's a vicious circle that may bring oil prices down further still.
As for the US dollar rise, I reckon that the USA haven't been as transparent as the UK. Brown has painted a more accurate, but bleak picture of the UK economy, and the short term effect of his stance is a weakening of sterling... but, if you examine the amount of cash Brown has set aside for UK banks etc, the UK amount proportionately dwarfs that of America and the vast majority of other countries. The UK has a more realistic 'war chest' in cash reserves to pump into its system. IMO the USA government have massively underestimated the cash they will need to help there banks, and as a consequence they will need to pump literally billions more dollars into there system, which in turn will weaken the dollar.
Don't forget, the G20 world finance meeting has called for no protectionism of large corporations; IE the USA shouldn't bail out GM and/or Ford etc. The knock on effect of major USA companies failing will have a hugely detrimental effect on the USA economy and its greenback.
True, the UK is going to borrow more money than usual, but if you compare UK predicted total borrowing to other industrialised western countries in relation to GDP, the level of UK borrowing is still lower than Germany and the USA for example.
There is also a myth that the UK doesn't make anything anymore - in fact the UK is the worlds 6th largest exporter, and the current exchange rate is a good thing for UK manufacturing.
The BOE base rate cut of 1.5% with more cuts likely to be on the way can only be a good thing too, commercial interest rates, when finally passed onto to consumers and small business's, will see the UK benefit with its lowest rates for 50 years or so.
In short, IMO the sterling exchange rate fall is a short term thing, and as the true extent of the USA's and the EU economies becomes clear, the dollar and euro will weaken and the pound will bounce back.
M.
Nov 18th 2008, 8:27 pm
#1693
Forum Regular
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 47
Re: Exchange rate
I was just wondering. The GBP is getting closer to euro with the pound struggling. Is Brown trying to level the pound to euro so Britain can easily change to EURO ?... Maybe in near future we'll join euro?!... What do you think?
Nov 18th 2008, 8:33 pm
#1694
half a century
Joined: Mar 2008
Location: Sarf Lundun to East Van :)
Posts: 10,222
Re: Exchange rate
so - given the banks are crumbling etc. . .IF my house sale goes thru next week would I be better just having the cash and putting under my mattress?? would be gutted to put it into an account for it to "disappear"!
Nov 18th 2008, 9:49 pm
#1695
Moved from Chester UK
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 387
Re: Exchange rate
I don't really think they are even bothered about the Pound v Euro at the moment, keeping their head above water is enough.