Alan2005

Great site - probably overly optimistic/pessimistic (depending on whether you are short/long on property) - I personally hope that prices go back to 2002, but can't see that big a drop.

When I arrived in Vancouver in June (this year) I decided that I wouldn't be buying real-estate this side of 2011. I don't have any insight into the local market or anything (I had just turned up) but bubbles are the same everywhere.

As for CAD here is my 2c (which is probably overvaluing it).

I'm slightly bearish on CAD due to the commodity price slump (Oil below $70 is something I wasn't expecting - tho some were and kudos to them). However I'm very bearish on GBP - where the economy has been (mainly) based on unsustainable consumer debt levels rather than true wealth generation. I doubt that the UK will see times as good as the last ten years for at least another 20 and actually probably much longer.

Basically I think GBP/CAD is going to get weaker (hopefully not too much weaker as I'll start to look expensive to my boss in the UK). However FX is highly volatile and can move inexplicably in the direction you don't expect - I wouldn't be gambling any of my own money on it - no way!

Alan

geedee

House prices in Canada are over the top. If you compare average house price to average income, the multiples come in way too high. Over 7 in some areas. That's not sustainable. You made a wise move. I bought one anyway, but not as an investment.

As to the exchange rate.... my gut feeling, for what it's worth (and sticking my neck out for the fun of it), is that the CAD is being artificially dragged up by the USD. The USD shouldn't be where it is, (the USA is bankrupt) and nor should the CAD (especially as oil now costs them more to produce than they can sell it for!!).

Sure the UK is not looking too rosy.... but if I had a choice between Canada and the UK on which one could weather an economic storm the best.... it wouldn't be Canada.

It may take a while, but I am not changing one more cent until it goes above 2. So there.

scottymallo

I m with Geedee on this one,
Canada is screwed up too! The USA dollar has strengthend nearly 25% in the last few months for no reason at all! I ve seen a few people quote people are buying green backs cos there safe in general but i would be suprised if they maintain there current strength much into the new year! I think the best thing for the UK is they ve admitted things are hard early! I got the latest property letter through the door regarding Abbotsford and Vancouver stating that in general the market is still healthy which is rubbish! I get e mail from my realtor everyday with the prices correction/reduction of house s in the area and some of them are getting $20000 off every few weeks. Europe is also in the s**t but the euro continues to strengthen why you tell me?
My money is staying in the UK till it s $2.10- £1 im not losing money over the state of the current economy in the UK when it's the same else were!
I ve been renting for 10 months now its cost me $10000 in rent that includes all bills, and the house im in s probably lost $50000 in value. So for once i thing i might have made the right decision. Also i ve just confirmed next years rent for the same price as this year,my land lord tried to put it up $50 a month i said no deal, don't agree to a rise when realistically you also can haggle for a decent rent when times are hard land lords don't want to lose good tenants!


QUOTE=geedee;6971504]House prices in Canada are over the top. If you compare average house price to average income, the multiples come in way too high. Over 7 in some areas. That's not sustainable. You made a wise move. I bought one anyway, but not as an investment.

As to the exchange rate.... my gut feeling, for what it's worth (and sticking my neck out for the fun of it), is that the CAD is being artificially dragged up by the USD. The USD shouldn't be where it is, (the USA is bankrupt) and nor should the CAD (especially as oil now costs them more to produce than they can sell it for!!).

Sure the UK is not looking too rosy.... but if I had a choice between Canada and the UK on which one could weather an economic storm the best.... it wouldn't be Canada.

It may take a while, but I am not changing one more cent until it goes above 2. So there.[/QUOTE]

ijjtaft

Well unfortunately I have to pay some UK money into my CAD bank account to pay some immigration costs as we're doing ours from within Canada.
Over the next 6 weeks I have to pay in 1900 pounds my first being tomorrow at 600 pounds. I'm gutted been waiting 2 weeks now hoping that the pound would go back up but I'm in a corner now and have to cash in...so I now get a terrrible rate of 1.753 (minus another 2%) with Scotia bank. I'm absolutely gutted. I know we get 2 percent less doing it this way but as we only put little amounts of money in this has been ok up till now, but I've lost about $170 over the last few weeks. Hopefully this will go back up again now the oil prices have slumped and UK is trying to sort things out.
Has anyone any ideas if this is gonna happen? I'm lucky and live in Newfoundland house prices here are actually rising and even if they don't I've already made a profit of about $20,000 which is ok as we didn't pay much anyway.
Good luck to all in this unstable time Julie.

sinope

The US dollar is strong because people the world over believe that the greenback is the best and safest currency investment. The US has a massive debt but is far from bankcrupt. It is still the world economic powerhouse with a bigger manufacturing base than any other country. If Obama gets it right and invests in the right technology, the R&D will fuel more manufacturing and then the greater US economy. The US is in a far better place than Europe to come through this recession relatively quickly. Canada will follow suit as a major exporter to the US. However, if the US takes a dive the rest of the world will follow and then we will probably be talking about a depression rather than a recession.

Also, don't expect oil prices to stay at $60 a barrel for long. Oil is a finite resource, we may already be in peak oil and the US will be desperate to source as much oil as possible from safe countries. Obama has already ruled out drilling in the Arctic (thank goodness) and any green energy he invests in will take a while to come online. The only way I can see for oil to stay at around $60 per barrel is if the recession is long and deep and that isn't taking into account the probability that OPEC will cut production again to force prices up.

Londonuck

Tell me bout it. Wish i'd moved mine over when we started using the Euro. 1.17 to the £1 today

andyg

IMO, gbp/cad could bounce back to 1.90 (or not) as its extremely over bought but with sterling disintegrating against the can $ even in the face of oil totally collapsing does not bode well for sterling.

The US dollar is a basket case and could possibly go the way of german currency of the 20`s or the Zimbabwee $, if so oil will go into the 100`s and the cad $ will be seen as a safe haven.

I can see gbp/cad eventually at 1.50 if not lower i`m afraid.

Alan2005

You may be right - or you may be lucky and catch an upswing anyway. Have to say in your position I'd place a few orders at prices above $2 and hope they get hit.

I'm not actually sure what the USD is doing - the US is still a huge economy and in some ways the economy there is a year or two ahead of CAD and GBP. Is the US over the worst - who knows? Canada is certainly not - and has bad times ahead, but the UK has worse coming. For instance I doubt that the Canadian government will need to go to the IMF, whereas that is a possibility for the UK. If this happens I expect to see GBP weaken further generally.

Alan2005

Don't you know that renting is 'dead money'?

notbazzz

The UK, the rest of Europe and Canada join the Euro, but economies continue to decline. Hyperinflation kicks in, food shortages are rampant. In 2013, the Palin government starts massing US troops along the Canadian border. The Canadian government allows the Chinese military into Canada and they annexe Alaska. Full-scale nuclear war ensues. We're all toast.

I reckon that scenario's at least as likely as anything anyone else is posting here.

Alan2005

Your avatar is so obnoxious it's actually funny.

notbazzz

I wanted this one, but you couldn't read the writing after resizing it:



It's disgusting how some people use completely inappropriate fonts.

Oakvillian

COMIC SANS FTW

Posidrive

Not really true. The tar sands are viable at around the $40 mark. The major cost in producing from the tar sands is the ridiculous amount of energy that is used for extracting the oil compared to just drilling a hole in the ground, but the upshot of falling oil prices should also be falling energy costs. Short term there my be some issues with expensive contracts, but once those expire the economics should fall back into place.

The other issue is with the recovery of Canada's heavy oil reserves which appear to be produced without any thought at all for optimization of energy costs vs recovery. Perhaps the operators of these reserves will now put some thought into what they are doing which will benefit both their profits and the environment.

So there is still quite some way to go before Canada won't be an oil producer

thebakers4

Hi there,

We are planning to use Halo when we are ready to xchange to CAD$ but we are in an odd situation as my OH works for an Austrian company and gets paid in EUROS, so in theory at the moment his boss sends his pay from Austrian to our normal bank account, which at the moment is ok as the Euro to £ rate is low and in our favour but we do still lose out on charges from both banks, we will then need to send it across to Canada

My question is - would we be better to change Euros straight into CAD$?

I am a relative newbie to the 3 way change we may have to do, could someone in the know let me know what would be the best way to change 5000Euros into CAD$ - straight exchange or into £ then $

Thanks for any help anyone can give, I see there are alot of you on this thread and guess someone may already be doing this so thought I'd ask for advice

Cheers
Jan