Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
May 15th 2009, 9:21 pm
#16
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
Lets be honest, 500K first time buyers is a niche market. Yes, there are some, but not many. Certainly not enough to make a huge difference.
May 15th 2009, 9:32 pm
#17
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
I don't think a house is a realistic first time buyer purchase in the lower mainland. Not unless you have wads of cash from the parents or have an inheritance. Or earn a lot of $$$$. Or buy a house with friends and split it.
The first time buyer purchase is a condo, 1 or 2 bedrooms. I know of quite a few young families who have started out in a condo, incl. me.
The first time buyer purchase is a condo, 1 or 2 bedrooms. I know of quite a few young families who have started out in a condo, incl. me.
20s DINKYs - condo in town
30s with young family - townhouse in the 'burbs
40s with growing family - single family home in outer 'burbs
50s with adult children - big **** off house in the burbs
60s empty nesters - condo in town.
Spring is the time most people move so it is not surprising there are signs of a recovery now. The people I talk to say that anything sensibly priced is selling quickly, but you only need to be a few thousand over market price at a place will sit forever.
I heard someone say that with the combination of lower selling prices and lower mortgage rates owning a property is 25% cheaper this year than it was last. This could account for some of the apparent recovery. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
May 15th 2009, 9:45 pm
#18
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
I agree, there is a progression:
20s DINKYs - condo in town
30s with young family - townhouse in the 'burbs
40s with growing family - single family home in outer 'burbs
50s with adult children - big **** off house in the burbs
60s empty nesters - condo in town.
Spring is the time most people move so it is not surprising there are signs of a recovery now. The people I talk to say that anything sensibly priced is selling quickly, but you only need to be a few thousand over market price at a place will sit forever.
I heard someone say that with the combination of lower selling prices and lower mortgage rates owning a property is 25% cheaper this year than it was last. This could account for some of the apparent recovery. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
20s DINKYs - condo in town
30s with young family - townhouse in the 'burbs
40s with growing family - single family home in outer 'burbs
50s with adult children - big **** off house in the burbs
60s empty nesters - condo in town.
Spring is the time most people move so it is not surprising there are signs of a recovery now. The people I talk to say that anything sensibly priced is selling quickly, but you only need to be a few thousand over market price at a place will sit forever.
I heard someone say that with the combination of lower selling prices and lower mortgage rates owning a property is 25% cheaper this year than it was last. This could account for some of the apparent recovery. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
Do you talk to people outside of the Lower Mainland? What is Market price? Market Price for a particular home DOES NOT exist until the home is sold.
This I TOTALLY agree with
May 15th 2009, 10:12 pm
#19
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
I have no idea why crazy real estate prices are seen as a good thing - high house prices are bad for everyone except those trading down.
Not to mention the inter generational theft that it represents - with it effectively being a huge wealth transfer from the young to the asset rich old. The next generation are going to so pissed with us having burnt all the oil, made them debt slaves, and given them a massive tax burden due to all the government bail outs of failed industries.
Last edited by Alan2005; May 15th 2009 at 10:23 pm. Reason: dodgy grammar
May 15th 2009, 11:36 pm
#20
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Location: Vancouver, BC
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
Nice selective quoting there Butch. But anyway, as we were talking about the LM, NOT whereverthehellyouare alberta, why (again) do you care?
Back to the thread.
The other thing I meant to add to my list of possible FTB house purchasers was people who used the basement for an income suite to offset the cost of the mortgage. Agree with Alan that most people I know without big incomes, parental help, inheritances or splitting with friends are buying condos. I also think Jonboy's post is spot on for the lower mainland. *shrugs* it is what it is.
Back to the thread.
The other thing I meant to add to my list of possible FTB house purchasers was people who used the basement for an income suite to offset the cost of the mortgage. Agree with Alan that most people I know without big incomes, parental help, inheritances or splitting with friends are buying condos. I also think Jonboy's post is spot on for the lower mainland. *shrugs* it is what it is.
May 16th 2009, 12:58 am
#21
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,054
Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
As I understand it the canadian stats aren't mix adjusted - and the volumes are still very low - so it's difficult to see what the prices are really doing (i.e. not much happening at the bottom end of the market will skew the price up).
I can only speak for Greater Vancouver - but it's not possible for average first time buyers to be paying the prices seen here - unless they are very rich or are *****ing idiots who want to spend their lives in penury that is. Although I do notice a tendency for Canadians not to question those in positions of authority or 'expertise' - so maybe that's why they believe a realtor who's assessment is usually just adding a bit on to the price of the last similar house they sold.
All this talk of recovery is making me very nervous - we seem to have borrowed ourselves rich which can't possibly be good. Personally I reckon this is a dead cat bounce due to rich buyers moving out of cash and into real-estate.
I can only speak for Greater Vancouver - but it's not possible for average first time buyers to be paying the prices seen here - unless they are very rich or are *****ing idiots who want to spend their lives in penury that is. Although I do notice a tendency for Canadians not to question those in positions of authority or 'expertise' - so maybe that's why they believe a realtor who's assessment is usually just adding a bit on to the price of the last similar house they sold.
All this talk of recovery is making me very nervous - we seem to have borrowed ourselves rich which can't possibly be good. Personally I reckon this is a dead cat bounce due to rich buyers moving out of cash and into real-estate.
May 16th 2009, 1:02 am
#22
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,054
Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
Male Cows.
A quick search of Vancouver reveals 12 homes under 500K, which is within the reach of some 1st time buyers. (please feel free to debate this point with me, after all I dont have a clue what I'm talking about I only sell homes to 1st time buyers at the end of the day.)
A quick search of Vancouver reveals 12 homes under 500K, which is within the reach of some 1st time buyers. (please feel free to debate this point with me, after all I dont have a clue what I'm talking about I only sell homes to 1st time buyers at the end of the day.)
May 16th 2009, 1:07 am
#23
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,054
Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
My point is that it was stated a condo IS the 1st time buyers purchase
Its less of a niche than you would expect at the moment.
Who says this is the progression? In what Market? Certainly wouldnt apply in Pincher Creek for example.
Do you talk to people outside of the Lower Mainland? What is Market price? Market Price for a particular home DOES NOT exist until the home is sold.
This I TOTALLY agree with
Its less of a niche than you would expect at the moment.
Who says this is the progression? In what Market? Certainly wouldnt apply in Pincher Creek for example.
Do you talk to people outside of the Lower Mainland? What is Market price? Market Price for a particular home DOES NOT exist until the home is sold.
This I TOTALLY agree with
May 16th 2009, 1:10 am
#24
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
Hi
Thats all it takes to make the housing market turn upwards.
If it is seen as a better investment, than cash or shares, it will continue to rise.
what better time is there to buy than when the price is low,
be it a house / car / holiday / shares .......
cheers
Jerry
May 16th 2009, 1:39 am
#25
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
Hi
Thats all it takes to make the housing market turn upwards.
If it is seen as a better investment, than cash or shares, it will continue to rise.
what better time is there to buy than when the price is low,
be it a house / car / holiday / shares .......
cheers
Jerry
Thats all it takes to make the housing market turn upwards.
If it is seen as a better investment, than cash or shares, it will continue to rise.
what better time is there to buy than when the price is low,
be it a house / car / holiday / shares .......
cheers
Jerry
Edit to add: see the graph 'portrait of a bubble' - check it out against vancouver house prices
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_...s.html#Bubbles
Last edited by Alan2005; May 16th 2009 at 1:44 am. Reason: Add URL
May 16th 2009, 1:40 am
#26
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
'some' first time buyers is hardly a good example of the market. Average wage is 45,000 per year in Vancouver. Its only the low rates that are helping - what happens when rates reset five years from now? 5 percent down on 500,000 is a very high debt load on a 450,000 mortgage.
Also - low interests can be a trap. a 25 basis point increase on a low rate will feel more painful than the same on a high rate.
Last edited by Alan2005; May 16th 2009 at 1:54 am. Reason: add interest rate stuff
May 16th 2009, 6:51 pm
#27
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
I agree what better time to buy when the price is low - except the price isn't low is it. This is a suckers rally / bull trap we are looking at. How many cash buyers are there out there? Most people just don't have 50k knocking around, let alone 500k!
Edit to add: see the graph 'portrait of a bubble' - check it out against vancouver house prices
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_...s.html#Bubbles
Edit to add: see the graph 'portrait of a bubble' - check it out against vancouver house prices
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_...s.html#Bubbles
As a small fish in the big ocean, I agree prices are not give away,
but it has been and always will be the guys with the money who control the markets, ( what ever markets they be),
if the guys with money put it into gold , gold goes up,
if they sell it goes down, etc, etc,
Once land was owned by no one, and had no value......
then someone saw a chance to make money....
and all the sheep followed
Cheers
Jerry
May 16th 2009, 7:55 pm
#28
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
I never understood this idea that first-time buyers should have to start out buying a crappy flat and not move into a house until they were forty, because almost no-one I know ever did that... most of them were in ordinary everyday jobs (factory worker, retail, etc), but they could afford to buy a house in their 20s and wages rose fast enough that their mortgage was a minor inconvenience after a few years.
Vancouver at least makes a little sense because it's had plenty of rich immigrants over the last decade or so in a relatively restricted area. But much of the world has seen house prices pushed up purely by vast amounts of easy credit borrowed by speculators.
May 17th 2009, 1:27 am
#29
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,054
Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
Whereas almost every couple I know bought a house when they got married or moved in together and have lived in it ever since. Of course they almost all bought a house in the 60s to 90s when prices were generally much lower than today, in absolute terms and relative to incomes, and wage inflation rapidly destroyed the mortgage debts.
I never understood this idea that first-time buyers should have to start out buying a crappy flat and not move into a house until they were forty, because almost no-one I know ever did that... most of them were in ordinary everyday jobs (factory worker, retail, etc), but they could afford to buy a house in their 20s and wages rose fast enough that their mortgage was a minor inconvenience after a few years.
Vancouver at least makes a little sense because it's had plenty of rich immigrants over the last decade or so in a relatively restricted area. But much of the world has seen house prices pushed up purely by vast amounts of easy credit borrowed by speculators.
I never understood this idea that first-time buyers should have to start out buying a crappy flat and not move into a house until they were forty, because almost no-one I know ever did that... most of them were in ordinary everyday jobs (factory worker, retail, etc), but they could afford to buy a house in their 20s and wages rose fast enough that their mortgage was a minor inconvenience after a few years.
Vancouver at least makes a little sense because it's had plenty of rich immigrants over the last decade or so in a relatively restricted area. But much of the world has seen house prices pushed up purely by vast amounts of easy credit borrowed by speculators.
May 17th 2009, 8:17 am
#30
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Re: Canadian resale housing market continues to recover in April
BTW I (and my colleaugues) wrote 3 deals today, all first time buyers, no home less than $420k.
We had a couple through (first time buyers again) budget 450-500k.
Another came back, have now uped their budget from 350k to 450k (not that they needed to I had a lovely home for them that was just what they had originally wanted for 339k).
We have three showings tomorrow for homes ranging 420-530K (all first time buyers).
These homes range in size from 1500-2400 sqft 3bed 2.5 bath. I live DT in a condo block, cheapest condo currently for sale in this block is 379k, 770sqft 1 bed 1 bath. I know which I would choose if I was a couple buying my first home.