Canada recession looming?
#121
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2012
Location: Canada
Posts: 36
Re: Canada recession looming?
Yes, *you* are up shits creek but *they* will sell it for current market rate and then some. If you think you can get access to lots of money for cheap, *they* can get it for even cheaper and will sit until it sells for what the market rate is.
#122
Account Closed
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 2,404
Re: Canada recession looming?
You're looking at this as if it's one person losing their house. It would be tens, if not hundreds of thousands of houses. That many houses flooding the market means only one thing= a house price crash.
Why does the bank care how much they sell it for? Their losses are insured (through CMHC) so what difference does it make to them?
If you think banks will willingly sit on housing inventory in the hope that they make a profit, I'm afraid you're woefully misguided.
Even for houses that dont have CMHC, the banks will simply sue you for any shortfall. They're certainly not gonna hang around for a couple of years waiting for the market to come back.
#123
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2012
Location: Canada
Posts: 36
Re: Canada recession looming?
No, it won't be. The BoC might talk about it and try to scare people into reigning in their debt - but it won't actually do it, at least not significantly. It can't - because to do so will kill what little growth there is. The days of what you and I would consider 'normal' interest rates are over.
The only possible reason for a significant interest rate hike is that the bond market will decide that it's had enough of Canadian debt and stops buying it. I just don't see this happening myself
The only possible reason for a significant interest rate hike is that the bond market will decide that it's had enough of Canadian debt and stops buying it. I just don't see this happening myself
#124
Forum Regular
Joined: Jun 2012
Location: Canada
Posts: 36
Re: Canada recession looming?
Me no comprendes.
You're looking at this as if it's one person losing their house. It would be tens, if not hundreds of thousands of houses. That many houses flooding the market means only one thing= a house price crash.
Why does the bank care how much they sell it for? Their losses are insured (through CMHC) so what difference does it make to them?
If you think banks will willingly sit on housing inventory in the hope that they make a profit, I'm afraid you're woefully misguided.
Even for houses that dont have CMHC, the banks will simply sue you for any shortfall. They're certainly not gonna hang around for a couple of years waiting for the market to come back.
You're looking at this as if it's one person losing their house. It would be tens, if not hundreds of thousands of houses. That many houses flooding the market means only one thing= a house price crash.
Why does the bank care how much they sell it for? Their losses are insured (through CMHC) so what difference does it make to them?
If you think banks will willingly sit on housing inventory in the hope that they make a profit, I'm afraid you're woefully misguided.
Even for houses that dont have CMHC, the banks will simply sue you for any shortfall. They're certainly not gonna hang around for a couple of years waiting for the market to come back.
Comparing Canada to US and UK or EU is not apples to apples. Canada only has 34 million people --- the inventory in question is much smaller.
Could it crash? Sure, anything it possible. But it's highly unlikely its going to go the direction of the US/EU because here, the banks are heavily protected and have the government and tax dollars 100% behind them.
#125
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Canada recession looming?
As many on here will tell you, I'm as bearish as anyone - including about Canada. It seems obvious, but in the long term a country (like an individual) can only spend what it receives in taxation - and nowhere do I see that happening. Not in Canada, not in the UK, and certainly not in the US. As I said earlier, they will all try and inflate their way out of this - and right now this means low interest rates and money printing.
#126
slanderer of the innocent
Joined: Dec 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 6,695
Re: Canada recession looming?
yup it's a mess.
#127
slanderer of the innocent
Joined: Dec 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 6,695
Re: Canada recession looming?
If Alberta's pipeline screws up BC"s coastline or land, BC is on the hook for it not AB. If it screws up BC's economy (tourism, etc) due to leakage it will be BC that has to wear it, not AB>
Similarly, if half of AB's old codgers decide to retire to Victoria - which they do in droves - BC is on the hook for their healthcare expenses etc, not AB. In fact BC tried to get more money out of the Feds for this exact reason and got told to bugger off.
Last edited by ExKiwilass; Jul 3rd 2012 at 4:53 am.
#128
Re: Canada recession looming?
No, because the Provinces are responsible - as in, have to pay money for - a lot of things without Federal help.
If Alberta's pipeline screws up BC"s coastline or land, BC is on the hook for it not AB. If it screws up BC's economy (tourism, etc) due to leakage it will be BC that has to wear it, not AB>
Similarly, if half of AB's old codgers decide to retire to Victoria - which they do in droves - BC is on the hook for their healthcare expenses etc, not AB.
If Alberta's pipeline screws up BC"s coastline or land, BC is on the hook for it not AB. If it screws up BC's economy (tourism, etc) due to leakage it will be BC that has to wear it, not AB>
Similarly, if half of AB's old codgers decide to retire to Victoria - which they do in droves - BC is on the hook for their healthcare expenses etc, not AB.
#129
Binned by Muderators
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: White Rock BC
Posts: 11,682
Re: Canada recession looming?
Useless bit of trivia for the day. Killer whale is a misnomer. Orcas are not whales, but bloody big dolphins. Orca means whale killer. Because they do.
Still cool though.
Still cool though.
#130
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Nov 2011
Location: Somewhere between Vancouver & St Johns
Posts: 19,849
Re: Canada recession looming?
Anybody want to buy a condo in TO?
Interesting article on big cities and why condos are built.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...ondo-boom.html
Interesting article on big cities and why condos are built.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...ondo-boom.html
#131
Re: Canada recession looming?
I don't think it is. I think it's just another puff for the condo business in Toronto. The main points seem to be:
- houses in the centre of Toronto cost more than they do farther out
- families generally don't want to live in flats so big apartments are hard to sell
In order to buy a house, families typically move out past Bathhurst/Bloor/DVP. No news there.
- houses in the centre of Toronto cost more than they do farther out
- families generally don't want to live in flats so big apartments are hard to sell
In order to buy a house, families typically move out past Bathhurst/Bloor/DVP. No news there.
#132
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Nov 2011
Location: Somewhere between Vancouver & St Johns
Posts: 19,849
Re: Canada recession looming?
I don't think it is. I think it's just another puff for the condo business in Toronto. The main points seem to be:
- houses in the centre of Toronto cost more than they do farther out
- families generally don't want to live in flats so big apartments are hard to sell
In order to buy a house, families typically move out past Bathhurst/Bloor/DVP. No news there.
- houses in the centre of Toronto cost more than they do farther out
- families generally don't want to live in flats so big apartments are hard to sell
In order to buy a house, families typically move out past Bathhurst/Bloor/DVP. No news there.
Interesting from a perspective of people wanting to move there or other big cities but cant buy a house downtown and have to move out to the outlying areas if they want that garden and garage and more than 1000 sq ft of living space.
They do make the cities skylines look interesting though plus the debates on architecture and planning or parking rates in the big cities.
#133
Forum Regular
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 199
Re: Canada recession looming?
I think we can all say that Canada's personal debt levels are terrible, but overall, I still think Canada is the best place to be in the world at the moment and most likely, into the future.
#135
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: Canada recession looming?
If you're in a government job that you can't get sacked from with a decent pension then yes, Canada is the best place to be. If, for whatever reason, you end up on welfare, then I'd say Canada is a pretty shit place to be. Not as shit as the US, but I'd still rather be in Europe in that situation.