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Canada recession looming?

Canada recession looming?

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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:47 am
  #121  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by jericho
If you default, you're still up shit creek and will be foreclosed. They'll sell the house for whatever they can, and CMHC pays the difference between that and the mortgaged amount.
Yes, *you* are up shits creek but *they* will sell it for current market rate and then some. If you think you can get access to lots of money for cheap, *they* can get it for even cheaper and will sit until it sells for what the market rate is.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:55 am
  #122  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by douglasgrant
Yes, *you* are up shits creek but *they* will sell it for current market rate and then some. If you think you can get access to lots of money for cheap, *they* can get it for even cheaper and will sit until it sells for what the market rate is.
Me no comprendes.

You're looking at this as if it's one person losing their house. It would be tens, if not hundreds of thousands of houses. That many houses flooding the market means only one thing= a house price crash.
Why does the bank care how much they sell it for? Their losses are insured (through CMHC) so what difference does it make to them?

If you think banks will willingly sit on housing inventory in the hope that they make a profit, I'm afraid you're woefully misguided.
Even for houses that dont have CMHC, the banks will simply sue you for any shortfall. They're certainly not gonna hang around for a couple of years waiting for the market to come back.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:57 am
  #123  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by Alan2005
No, it won't be. The BoC might talk about it and try to scare people into reigning in their debt - but it won't actually do it, at least not significantly. It can't - because to do so will kill what little growth there is. The days of what you and I would consider 'normal' interest rates are over.

The only possible reason for a significant interest rate hike is that the bond market will decide that it's had enough of Canadian debt and stops buying it. I just don't see this happening myself
I am no finance wiz, but what growth is it that you speak of? Last time I checked it's all shrunk a bit more than last time and the growth in the energy sector is being hampered and undermined as un-Canadians conspiring against Canada.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 2:23 am
  #124  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by jericho
Me no comprendes.

You're looking at this as if it's one person losing their house. It would be tens, if not hundreds of thousands of houses. That many houses flooding the market means only one thing= a house price crash.
Why does the bank care how much they sell it for? Their losses are insured (through CMHC) so what difference does it make to them?

If you think banks will willingly sit on housing inventory in the hope that they make a profit, I'm afraid you're woefully misguided.
Even for houses that dont have CMHC, the banks will simply sue you for any shortfall. They're certainly not gonna hang around for a couple of years waiting for the market to come back.
"You" meaning and referring to people who lose their houses b/c they lost their jobs or they had to renew at a much higher rate but were barely getting by and didn't secure a much higher paying job.

Comparing Canada to US and UK or EU is not apples to apples. Canada only has 34 million people --- the inventory in question is much smaller.

Could it crash? Sure, anything it possible. But it's highly unlikely its going to go the direction of the US/EU because here, the banks are heavily protected and have the government and tax dollars 100% behind them.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 2:27 am
  #125  
 
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by douglasgrant
I am no finance wiz, but what growth is it that you speak of? Last time I checked it's all shrunk a bit more than last time and the growth in the energy sector is being hampered and undermined as un-Canadians conspiring against Canada.
Well, quite - though as per the thread title - Canada isn't officially in recession yet.

As many on here will tell you, I'm as bearish as anyone - including about Canada. It seems obvious, but in the long term a country (like an individual) can only spend what it receives in taxation - and nowhere do I see that happening. Not in Canada, not in the UK, and certainly not in the US. As I said earlier, they will all try and inflate their way out of this - and right now this means low interest rates and money printing.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 3:02 am
  #126  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

yup it's a mess.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 3:07 am
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by pacepeter
Eats this us and them is it not the same country when one part gains so does the other?
No, because the Provinces are responsible - as in, have to pay money for - a lot of things without Federal help.

If Alberta's pipeline screws up BC"s coastline or land, BC is on the hook for it not AB. If it screws up BC's economy (tourism, etc) due to leakage it will be BC that has to wear it, not AB>

Similarly, if half of AB's old codgers decide to retire to Victoria - which they do in droves - BC is on the hook for their healthcare expenses etc, not AB. In fact BC tried to get more money out of the Feds for this exact reason and got told to bugger off.

Last edited by ExKiwilass; Jul 3rd 2012 at 4:53 am.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 3:49 am
  #128  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by Kiwilass
No, because the Provinces are responsible - as in, have to pay money for - a lot of things without Federal help.

If Alberta's pipeline screws up BC"s coastline or land, BC is on the hook for it not AB. If it screws up BC's economy (tourism, etc) due to leakage it will be BC that has to wear it, not AB>

Similarly, if half of AB's old codgers decide to retire to Victoria - which they do in droves - BC is on the hook for their healthcare expenses etc, not AB.
Did anyone see the killer whales that came into English Bay today? The bastards buggered up the fishing but they were cool to see.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 4:55 am
  #129  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Useless bit of trivia for the day. Killer whale is a misnomer. Orcas are not whales, but bloody big dolphins. Orca means whale killer. Because they do.

Still cool though.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:02 pm
  #130  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Anybody want to buy a condo in TO?
Interesting article on big cities and why condos are built.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...ondo-boom.html
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:23 pm
  #131  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian
Interesting article on big cities and why condos are built.
I don't think it is. I think it's just another puff for the condo business in Toronto. The main points seem to be:

- houses in the centre of Toronto cost more than they do farther out

- families generally don't want to live in flats so big apartments are hard to sell

In order to buy a house, families typically move out past Bathhurst/Bloor/DVP. No news there.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:36 pm
  #132  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by dbd33
I don't think it is. I think it's just another puff for the condo business in Toronto. The main points seem to be:

- houses in the centre of Toronto cost more than they do farther out

- families generally don't want to live in flats so big apartments are hard to sell

In order to buy a house, families typically move out past Bathhurst/Bloor/DVP. No news there.
Well yeah there is that to it
Interesting from a perspective of people wanting to move there or other big cities but cant buy a house downtown and have to move out to the outlying areas if they want that garden and garage and more than 1000 sq ft of living space.
They do make the cities skylines look interesting though plus the debates on architecture and planning or parking rates in the big cities.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:40 pm
  #133  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

I think we can all say that Canada's personal debt levels are terrible, but overall, I still think Canada is the best place to be in the world at the moment and most likely, into the future.
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 1:49 pm
  #134  
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by teacher1000
I think we can all say that Canada's personal debt levels are terrible, but overall, I still think Canada is the best place to be in the world at the moment and most likely, into the future.
Or Australia
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Old Jul 3rd 2012, 2:54 pm
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Default Re: Canada recession looming?

Originally Posted by teacher1000
I think we can all say that Canada's personal debt levels are terrible, but overall, I still think Canada is the best place to be in the world at the moment and most likely, into the future.
If you're in a government job that you can't get sacked from with a decent pension then yes, Canada is the best place to be. If, for whatever reason, you end up on welfare, then I'd say Canada is a pretty shit place to be. Not as shit as the US, but I'd still rather be in Europe in that situation.
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