buying a house in an economic minefield
Aug 13th 2009, 10:28 pm
#241
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2004
Location: British Columbia
Posts: 801
Re: buying a house in an economic minefield
Originally Posted by dboy;
I like these graphs - first is how bubbles behave and pop - second is the vancouver housing market - looks like we might be heading into capitulation:
http://fishyre.blogspot.com/
http://fishyre.blogspot.com/
Note the bubble graph is for liquid commodities like stocks, oil, etc., and house prices have (historically) behaved somewhat differently; however I wouldn't argue that over recent years house prices have started to behave more like aforementioned liquid commodities and I certainly believe we're in the "bull trap; everything's back to normal!" phase right now.
I recall with amusement someone on here at the start of the year saying we'd never see 2007-8 Vancouver house prices again in a generation. Well, it took six months, and in several places we actually pipped 2007 in June.
However, although Vancouver is an odd case, it can't escape reality forever; I think the Olympics may postpone the inevitable by six months - I call this time next year as a great time to be buying.
For more market related idle speculation, rumor has it the Chinese have made it clear to the Fed that they need to stop printing money or they may start calling in their debt - this is liable to result in rate hikes and a strengthening US dollar (which until recently was forecasted to continue to slide - you don't hear quite so many commentators today calling imminent parity as you did a month ago). Net effect if that happens: markets (stock and housing) down, and although Canada tends to lag the States like it's on a bungee cord, the pull is eventually irresistible. Mind you, the stock markets are due a pullback, it's been a stellar six months (best in sixty years or something?).
But that's a whole other topic, and I'm rambling.
Last edited by Iain Mc; Aug 13th 2009 at 10:32 pm.
Aug 13th 2009, 10:30 pm
#242
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: buying a house in an economic minefield
I think that blogger pinched those from a posting I made on a stock market forum a week or two back connecting the two!
Note the bubble graph is for liquid commodities like stocks, oil, etc., and house prices have (historically) behaved somewhat differently; however I wouldn't argue that over recent years house prices have started to behave more like aforementioned liquid commodities and I certainly believe we're in the "bull trap; everything's back to normal!" phase right now.
I recall with amusement someone on here at the start of the year saying we'd never see 2007-8 Vancouver house prices again in a generation. Well, it took six months, and in several places we actually pipped 2007 in June.
However, although Vancouver is an odd case, it can't escape reality forever; I think the Olympics may postpone the inevitable by six months - I call this time next year as a great time to be buying.
For more market related idle speculation, rumor has it the Chinese have made it clear to the Fed that they need to stop printing money or they may start calling in their debt - this is liable to result in rate hikes and a strengthening US dollar (which until recently was forecasted to continue to slide - you don't hear quite so many commentators today calling imminent parity as you did a month ago). Net effect if that happens: markets (stock and housing) down, and although Canada tends to lag the States like it's on a bungee cord, the pull is eventually irresistible. Mind you, the stock markets are due a pullback, it's been a stellar six months (best in sixty years or something?).
But that's a whole other topic, and I'm rambling.
Note the bubble graph is for liquid commodities like stocks, oil, etc., and house prices have (historically) behaved somewhat differently; however I wouldn't argue that over recent years house prices have started to behave more like aforementioned liquid commodities and I certainly believe we're in the "bull trap; everything's back to normal!" phase right now.
I recall with amusement someone on here at the start of the year saying we'd never see 2007-8 Vancouver house prices again in a generation. Well, it took six months, and in several places we actually pipped 2007 in June.
However, although Vancouver is an odd case, it can't escape reality forever; I think the Olympics may postpone the inevitable by six months - I call this time next year as a great time to be buying.
For more market related idle speculation, rumor has it the Chinese have made it clear to the Fed that they need to stop printing money or they may start calling in their debt - this is liable to result in rate hikes and a strengthening US dollar (which until recently was forecasted to continue to slide - you don't hear quite so many commentators today calling imminent parity as you did a month ago). Net effect if that happens: markets (stock and housing) down, and although Canada tends to lag the States like it's on a bungee cord, the pull is eventually irresistible. Mind you, the stock markets are due a pullback, it's been a stellar six months (best in sixty years or something?).
But that's a whole other topic, and I'm rambling.
Edit: I still stand by the sentiment mind.
Aug 13th 2009, 10:35 pm
#243
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Feb 2004
Location: British Columbia
Posts: 801
Re: buying a house in an economic minefield
Was it? Sorry, I thought it was TheBear but was being kind and not naming names until you outed yourself 
And on the sentiment, yes, I agree with you (not sure about a generation but certainly the medium term). This recent spike is entirely without logic or solid fundamentals.
And on the sentiment, yes, I agree with you (not sure about a generation but certainly the medium term). This recent spike is entirely without logic or solid fundamentals.
Aug 13th 2009, 10:38 pm
#244
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: buying a house in an economic minefield
Was it? Sorry, I thought it was TheBear but was being kind and not naming names until you outed yourself
And on the sentiment, yes, I agree with you (not sure about a generation but certainly the medium term). This recent spike is entirely without logic or solid fundamentals.
And on the sentiment, yes, I agree with you (not sure about a generation but certainly the medium term). This recent spike is entirely without logic or solid fundamentals.
Aug 14th 2009, 1:05 am
#246
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 14,227
Re: buying a house in an economic minefield
It's a combination of lazy unquestioning journalism and good PR from the trade associations. Most of the news and analysis you see comes from press releases from people like the CREA.
Aug 14th 2009, 1:14 am
#247
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,054
Re: buying a house in an economic minefield
I loved this one back in june in the province - it was supposed to be SALES up 16 percent, not PRICES - they never did retract it:
http://www.theprovince.com/business/...283/story.html
