The world of automation
#1336
Re: The world of automation
All of which misses out on the exam question of mass automation, mass unemployment, and the depression that comes from it. Still can't see a solution.
#1337
Re: The world of automation
Which is why I said it was a daft example at the beginning. However I can definitely see ways in which the pub service environment COULD be automated whilst improving the experience (hands up who likes waiting at the bar) and the overall point stands.
Thing is, in a mature industry increased sales for one only come at reduced sales for others, so from a country perspective it's a wash at best. And cost cutting becomes the only way to 'win', because if you don't, someone else will. This goes flying over his head.
All of which misses out on the exam question of mass automation, mass unemployment, and the depression that comes from it. Still can't see a solution.
Thing is, in a mature industry increased sales for one only come at reduced sales for others, so from a country perspective it's a wash at best. And cost cutting becomes the only way to 'win', because if you don't, someone else will. This goes flying over his head.
All of which misses out on the exam question of mass automation, mass unemployment, and the depression that comes from it. Still can't see a solution.
I agree some automation could be introduced to the pub trade. Weatherspoons now have an app where you can order from your table and the drinks are delivered, which avoids waiting at the bar.
#1338
Re: The world of automation
See. It's never about costs. It's all about increasing production.
Garry, do you seriously think Rio give 2 hoots about the salary of a couple of train drivers who are transporting a $200 million load of iron ore? Or cost $940USD Million to implement?
There's more blokes in the remote train driving office tha there are on trains. See automation creates jobs.
However we do agree on one thing. Australia lacks people with STEM skills.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...13-p4zr9o.html
Garry, do you seriously think Rio give 2 hoots about the salary of a couple of train drivers who are transporting a $200 million load of iron ore? Or cost $940USD Million to implement?
There's more blokes in the remote train driving office tha there are on trains. See automation creates jobs.
However we do agree on one thing. Australia lacks people with STEM skills.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...13-p4zr9o.html
As to job evolution (data scientists replacing miners) I think you're missing the bigger picture. In the short term, while the industry/company is transitioning to automation, there will indeed be an increased need for technological manpower to design, build, implement the systems. That's where we are now. The tech sector has exploded in recent decades because there is so much to be built. However, at some stage it is built, it reaches maturity, and barring Elon's colony on Mars, there will be little else for us humans to do. Well, save for going to the pub and pulling or downing pints.
#1339
Re: The world of automation
People are cheap. It's all about productivity.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/...051.1531281598
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/...051.1531281598
#1340
Re: The world of automation
Businesses who "don't care about costs" soon find that they ARE in trouble. That's why businesses focus on costs, as well as sales. Profit is a function of both.
HTH.
#1341
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
The pub example is not a good one because, yes the bar staff are part of the "experience" and therefore unlikely to be automated. Incidentally Beoz, you haven't taken into account the cost of drinks in your break even analysis, it's probably the case that they need to pull several pints to cover their hourly wage.
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Thing is, in a mature industry increased sales for one only come at reduced sales for others, so from a country perspective it's a wash at best. And cost cutting becomes the only way to 'win', because if you don't, someone else will. This goes flying over his head.
All of which misses out on the exam question of mass automation, mass unemployment, and the depression that comes from it. Still can't see a solution.
All of which misses out on the exam question of mass automation, mass unemployment, and the depression that comes from it. Still can't see a solution.
What did Microsoft do with their phone business? Kicked it into touch and went after cloud services. And look at where they are today (how those shares doing?)
Any company that peddles out the same old crap and doesn't seek to diversify or create a better product or service than its competition is doomed for failure. Business 101.
Mature markets - ho ho ho.
Not such a daft example after all then.
#1342
Re: The world of automation
Nothing to discuss on productivity. If automation raises it, then it will be introduced, if not, it won't.
Why you think firms in a free market are happy to maintain superfluous staff is beyond me. You seem to believe the market is infinite, it isn't. Markets saturate, storage and time frictions exist, skill shortages are real.
Why you think firms in a free market are happy to maintain superfluous staff is beyond me. You seem to believe the market is infinite, it isn't. Markets saturate, storage and time frictions exist, skill shortages are real.
#1343
Re: The world of automation
Basically anything that requires pattern matching and responding to patterns can be done at least as well as humans. eg https://www.bbc.com/news/health-38717928
Obviously reproduction of set processes is already down pat.
Combine them together and there is a hell of a lot of jobs that can be done, probably including all those customer service jobs that Beoz seems to think are going to magically appear. I've a sneaking suspicion that an AI like Google Duplex will be able to digest the salesman patter handbook at least as well as the shiny suit brigade, and I also think it will do better at pattern matching non-verbal clues and voice inflections. Probably will even be able to work out if you've more money than sense and then try and sell you a Mac.
Just think of 2025, when rather than someone phoning you up and reading a script in an Indian accent, you'll get a sultry voice, engaging in conversation, and only gradually working it around to selling the latest retraining course, guaranteed to get you one of the ever disappearing jobs. Spam calls every 5 minutes, all of which can have a good shot at passing the Turing test.
Obviously reproduction of set processes is already down pat.
Combine them together and there is a hell of a lot of jobs that can be done, probably including all those customer service jobs that Beoz seems to think are going to magically appear. I've a sneaking suspicion that an AI like Google Duplex will be able to digest the salesman patter handbook at least as well as the shiny suit brigade, and I also think it will do better at pattern matching non-verbal clues and voice inflections. Probably will even be able to work out if you've more money than sense and then try and sell you a Mac.
Just think of 2025, when rather than someone phoning you up and reading a script in an Indian accent, you'll get a sultry voice, engaging in conversation, and only gradually working it around to selling the latest retraining course, guaranteed to get you one of the ever disappearing jobs. Spam calls every 5 minutes, all of which can have a good shot at passing the Turing test.
#1344
Re: The world of automation
Gary, you must be the only person more bullish on AI and automation than me. LOL. I'd say 2040 before true AI salesbots, though 2025 sounds about right for virtual assistants becoming widespread.
#1345
Re: The world of automation
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#1346
Re: The world of automation
Luditte theory still in play
Nothing has changed
We're going to be okay
Nothing has changed
We're going to be okay
#1347
Re: The world of automation
Let's go through the necessary elements for a telephone based salesbot.
- Ability to talk in a 'human' voice - check, Google Duplex does that well enough to fool people.
- Ability to replicate the salesman handbook of techniques - check, just a matter of programming
- Ability to pick up on emotion and clues in speech - check, https://www.affectiva.com/emotion-ai-overview/
- Ability to conduct general and task conversation - check https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27762088
- Patience - check, if anything AIs are the ideal sales, they don't get bored or disheartened.
Then imagine what the same tech will do for adverts, personalised and tailored to the individual (they already have the data). You are 40, like red sports cars and live in Perth, well the advert you see can be micro targeted to what you are thinking, with local scenery in the background, and a message/conversation designed to pull you in, talking to you by name. "Shard, isn't it time you followed your dream?" Just think how those types of ad will hit the marketeers.
2025 is generous.
#1348
Re: The world of automation
I think the natural language interface is being a bit over-hyped, although understanding has made great leaps in recent years, NL generation remains in its infancy. The experiments tend to be very domain specific (Duplex booking an appointment) and the interaction has to go according to plan. It's all narrow AI at this stage, and a true sales situation is approaching general AI. Not saying it won't happen, but seven years is way too soon.
#1349
Re: The world of automation
I reckon we are going to be left way way behind in the West. AI and its implementation will only come in as fast as people are prepared to accept it. I dont think Western people are ready to change. By a long shot, Unfortunately. There are still hoards of people using Fax Machines for xsakes. Laminex the group does most of its invoicing still by Fax.
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#1350
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Not used a fax in about 8 years now. Have you?