Beoz

Yep that's the luddite fallacy messing with you especially when you bring your hatred for the ex PM in to with no supporting facts.

ozzieeagle

It's difficult to see a way around this, your either a luddite or a futurist.

1.8 million jobs is a hell of a lot to make up in tech jobs or support...... Truck drivers as Tech support.... I should coco... Maybe half of them at best eh


1.8 million American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots. What then? - Vox

I could accept half that number being made up....not all of them though. Then where, That free money option to me seems to have to be the answer..... and taken out of Automation profits.


I seriously see a birthing population control coming our way as well in circa 20 years. It's either that or cull the other end *gulp* !!!

Beoz

The title of your link says "could" .... not "will"

Automation doesn't happen over night. But for simplicity lets say it does. Lets say every truck in the US becomes driverless in one day (ho ho ho) then the half you predict may have a problem for a while. No big deal. Most will find something (uber driving), some will retire, some will working in the driverless industry. All good. Not a problem.

One would assume its cheaper to transport, more trucks, more mechanic jobs, more truck building jobs, more delivery services, more industries popping up the rely on newer cheaper delivery. See the trend? That's what old and recent history tells us.

ozzieeagle

Ever job you've mentioned will also become automated......uber will be driverless way before the trucking industry.

Beoz

Will it? Wasn't the ATM supposed to replace the bank teller?

ozzieeagle

Banks have shed 1000's of staff since the automation of the industry.

GarryP

Sigh

Right first off it will happen quickly in trucks, for a very simple reason. If you have an automated fleet you can underbid your manual competitors and still make a profit. Those with automation take the contracts from those without - so everyone has to change quickly. Probably not in one day, but 1-2 years is likely, one way or another.

Second, Uber will be at the front of the queue for autonomous robotaxis, so they will be getting rid of drivers.

And third, the impact of 1.8 million drivers looking for work is to depress the pay and conditions of the rest, since there is a massive oversupply. That has a knock on effect to everything connected with the haulage industry and anywhere that mob of unemployed might go. Trucking has been one of the last unskilled, high paid, jobs open - so mortgages go unpaid, shops unvisited, etc.

It most certainly IS a big deal, and a big problem.

Amazulu

Must....resist....replying....to.....so.....much.. ...bullshit......

It's pure and undiluted on this thread

Beoz

Really? Where is the proof on that?

Back to tellers and ATM's, here's some stats for you.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/06/technology-and-unemployment

How could that be? DOH!

GarryP

Like the climate denier arguments, it really depends on when you pick your dates :

CITI: The 'Uber moment' for banks is coming -- and more than a million people could lose their jobs | Business Insider



How could that be? DOH!

Beoz

Again and oh sigh, these are all Luddite predictions. Not fact.

The Luddites failed on the ATM prediction and will fail on this.

The only thing that will reduce bank staff numbers is economic decline, like another GFC. As long as profits increase, so will staff numbers.

Big business doesn't have the appetite to reduce staff through tech. They only have the appetite to increase profits through tech. Staff costs the banks a fraction of their overall profits accumulated through automation.

GarryP

Sigh

From 1980 to 2007 (27 years) the bank teller employment rose about 20%. During the same time the US population rose 33%, so the number of tellers didn't keep pace.

From 2007 to 2015 (8 years) it fell 15%. Obviously a significant decline whilst the population rose 6%.

Ahh, those troublesome facts ....

Beoz

From the CFG you conveniently ignore and also ignore the shift from retail into other areas within the bank.

Job type shifts are the very thing the luddites ignore.

Banking employment is growing .... not declining and is always based on profit, not automation.

GarryP

Tesla uprating their hardware sensors, with talk of future software updates to have that deliver autonomous driving.

Tesla's Next Version Of Autopilot May Go Fully Autonomous: Report

GarryP

Well, I was demonstrating that your dismissal of the original statement was wrong, not talking about your strawman.

However, that wrong as well, going forward.

Here's a nice little report by the World Economic Forum on the Future of Jobs

The Future of Jobs - Reports - World Economic Forum

It says that they expect a net loss of 5 million jobs, by 2020, in the 15 countries studied, with one of the industries where they expect to see losses being in finance, particularly the semi-skilled office side of it. It's the simple white collar office jobs being automated out of existence.

Within that net figure there is a big shift in the skills that are needed, with IT, big data science, etc. doing well. The kind of stuff it's difficult to reskill people for (although that's what they think they will do).

If anything, I think this may well be optimistic in it's predictions, but at least it shows how people aren't expecting the new jobs to be able to replace the old.