Beoz

The crystal ball is out.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/three-big-trends-in-the-world-of-work-20171117-gznfkj.html

Beoz

I tend to agree with the ship pilot thing if they can sort automation on the motorway out ..... if.

And transportation in itself will ramp up in terms of volume. Its going to get cheaper, electric vehicles, motorway automation and road transport, along with rail and air transport will become greater in volume.

We know cutting costs is finite. Shareholders of freight companies will want growth, and that only comes with increasing volume, which means more jobs, and more truckies at the outskirts of town.

I'm not really sure the sales pitch is winner though. The 1000k on one battery is, but the rest is not. If they pick the price point correctly they could get the 1000k on a single battery through, otherwise truck companies will just stick with the old diesel.

Did it talk about noise levels?

Shard

Not sure if the whole article displayed, it seemed to end suddenly at the talk of agglomeration. Interesting statistic that 1 in 8 jobs are healthcare. Denise of early retirement probably goes hand in hand with the demise of decent pensions.

Shard

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...et-shop-london

It’s a frightening statistic for an industry where jobs are already disappearing at an alarming rate. The retail workforce has shrunk from 3.2 million in 2008 to around 3 million today with the British Retail Consortium predicting another 900,000 jobs will disappear by 2025 as companies end their leases on unprofitable stores.

Commentary on retail.

Beoz

This is a Guardian piece so it usually gets interesting at the end once the drama is out the way.

We have talked about this before. Retailers who believe the same old formula is good enough will die. Those who offer an in store experience will survive.

At the end of the article John Lewis is cited at the way its changing its in store experience. Even Gerry's doing it.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/the-cage-traditional-retailers-need-to-make-to-stop-drift-to-online-only-stores/news-story/9ee385b9a0f9e26eb584f1b604a0223e

Shard

No quibbles on the need for retailers to evolve.

Does Australia have Amazon? I assumed it did, but another article in the link you sent suggests it doesn't??

Beoz

Not yet, they say its coming. None the less, everything is orderable online in Oz anyway.

Shard

Seriously ?! That's bizarre. It has been 20 years.

GarryP

Motorway end of things is basically done. Town deliveries will be there by 2025, but in the meantime you can slice through driver hours and thus drivers, with plucking the low hanging fruit.

Actually, I'm not sure on that. If anything I thing volume will fall.

Once again, your understanding of the drivers on the transport business model is limited. It's about cutting costs.

1000km for the roadster. The truck range etc. is predicated on the manual truck driving hours which currently pertain. You can recharge in the 30min break you are legally required to take for hours on the road (smart actually, they optimised round this).

Obviously will be quiet, no big diesel engine to wake the neighbours. Not sure about the braking.

Actually it will probably be those who can downsize to reduce costs, coupled with those that have tight control of inventory (eg not Aussie retail). Store experience won't be economic. Even at present stores have a 30% markup for rent, power, spotty oik. Push that further and we'd be talking 50% markup for 'store experience' and outside Harrods, that's not going to fly.

Yeah, that should ring alarm bells, given how clueless he is.

Shard

Roadster looks incredible. If only I had a spare $200K

Shard

Yeah, this comment had me mystified too. What are you trying to say here Beoz? Obviously, freight co's want volume, but how much more can they get? Where does the volume growth come from? And if machines are doing the driving, sorting, loading, labelling, delivering, scheduling, monitoring, hiring, paying, how is this going to lead to more jobs?

Shard

https://www.theguardian.com/business...t-tesla-moment

I like this concept of a "Tesla moment" it reminds me a bit of the phrase "jumping the shark". A kind of realisation that the shift has occurred. I think it's happened, for example, with smartphones and social media: early adopters, naysayers, chaotic transition (some use some don't) and then there's a 'moment' (only identifiable in retrospect) where the new tech has dominated the old.

GarryP

Yeah, but when you look at it's hypercar competition, it's cheap. The acceleration, the top speed, it's up with, or ahead of, the Bugatti's, the Ferrari's, the McClaren's.

This P1



has a top speed of 225 and a 0-60 time of 2.5sec. It costs $2.9m

As I say, cheap.

It's basically the transition from the old S-Curve to the new one. Beoz loves to talk about new markets, new innovations, but if your business model is on the tail end of the old S-Curve all you can really do is squeeze costs out of it.

To really get to new opportunities, you need to start again on the lower slopes of a new S-Curve - usurping the old. Online clothes is one such, as new technology and better more responsive logistics takes over from the pain of going into old, expensive, shops.

Wait till they get automated manufacture of clothes such that each item is individually tailored for you - right size, right design, unique. Now THAT'S really disruption, and guess what :

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/t...ng-patent.html

Shard

A different animal than a McCLaren or Bugatti, I suppose, but in terms of acceleration, pretty incredible. It must be disconcerting to accelerate at that rate, especially if it's noiseless. Maybe Elon with have to install an artificial exhaust replicator to give motorheads the full experience!

Shard

Interesting NYT piece on clothing. Not sure about that, there are still massive economies to be made from standardized sizing. There's also talk about home manufacture with 3D printers, but I suppose in relation to clothes that will have to wait until fabrics can be synthesized on the spot. Maybe another few decades until "full Star Trek".